Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Ecuador
Aucas
€11.10m
Deportivo
€7.22m
Preview
If you’re searching for the most insightful Aucas vs Deportivo Cuenca prediction ahead of their 2025-06-22 Liga Pro encounter at Estadio Cooprogreso Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, you’ve landed in the right place. With both teams locked on 26 points after 16 matches and only separated by goal difference—Aucas in 4th, Deportivo Cuenca in 5th—this fixture promises to be a pivotal moment in the race for the upper echelons of Ecuadorian football. But will home advantage and superior squad value tip the scales for Aucas, or can Cuenca spring another surprise? Let’s break down the numbers, trends, and betting tips to deliver a nuanced, data-driven preview.
It’s impossible to ignore the significance of Estadio Cooprogreso Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda in this matchup. Historically, home teams in Liga Pro Ecuador have secured victory in 39.7% of matches, a figure that looms large over this fixture. Aucas, boasting a market value of €11.10m compared to Cuenca’s €7.22m, are not only the bookmakers’ favorites at 1.76 odds but also the AI’s pick for a home win (trust level 5.9/10). This financial muscle often translates to depth, tactical flexibility, and—crucially—control of the ball.
Indeed, the AI projection expects Aucas to command 60% possession, leaving Deportivo Cuenca to chase shadows with just 40%. This dominance should manifest in the shot count as well: Aucas are tipped to rack up 19 total shots (seven on target), while Cuenca are forecasted to muster only 10 (three on target). The predicted corners tally—4 for Aucas, 3 for Cuenca—further underlines the hosts’ anticipated territorial advantage.
While Aucas are expected to dictate proceedings, the Aucas vs Deportivo Cuenca prediction does not foresee a goal-fest. The AI-driven model strongly favors under 3.5 total goals (trust level 8.0/10, odds 1.25), with a predicted final scoreline of 1:0 to Aucas—and a goalless first half. This aligns with broader Liga Pro trends: only 22.7% of matches have seen over 3.5 goals, while over 2.5 goals have occurred in just 42.1% of games. Both teams have scored in 45.9% of fixtures, suggesting that a shutout on one side is far from rare.
For punters seeking value, the under 3.5 goals market stands out as the best over/under bet, combining a high trust rating with reasonable odds. Expect a tactical chess match rather than a wild shootout, with both sides wary of conceding ground in such a tight table.
No preview would be complete without a look at recent head to head results. The last meeting, on 2024-09-29, saw Deportivo Cuenca stun Aucas 4-1—despite entering as clear underdogs (odds 4.33 to Aucas’s 1.83). That result serves as a warning: Cuenca are more than capable of upsetting the odds, especially if Aucas become complacent. However, it’s worth noting that such high-scoring outbursts are the exception, not the rule, in this rivalry.
Both teams have also shown resilience against top opposition recently. Aucas managed a gritty 1:1 away draw at Independiente del Valle as 5.0 outsiders, while Cuenca held Barcelona SC to a 0:0 stalemate on the road, defying even longer odds (8.0). These results reinforce the expectation of a tightly contested, low-scoring affair.
Discipline is unlikely to be a major talking point, with just one yellow card forecasted per team. Set pieces may play a crucial role given the predicted seven corners in total, but neither side is expected to be reckless or overly aggressive. In a match where margins are razor-thin, a single moment of quality or a defensive lapse could decide the outcome.
With both teams neck-and-neck in the standings, the stakes could hardly be higher. Aucas’s home advantage, superior squad value, and expected dominance in possession and shots all point toward a narrow victory for the hosts. The AI’s recommended betting tips—home win at 1.76 odds, under 3.5 goals at 1.25—are well supported by both statistical trends and recent performances.
In summary, the most reliable Aucas vs Deportivo Cuenca prediction is a 1:0 win for Aucas, with a cagey, goalless first half. Expect disciplined defending, limited scoring chances, and a result that keeps the Liga Pro title race as tight as ever. Whether you’re a casual fan or a serious bettor, this is one matchup where patience—and a sharp eye for value—will be rewarded.
Read More
U3.5 -400
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -4001 -132
Aucas is expected to win with odds of -132Under 3.5 -400
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the matchNo -119
At least one team is not expected to score1X&U4.5 -323
Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1:0
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9
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7
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6
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 Deportivo |
26-Oct-25
1:2
| Aucas  |
| Aucas |
11-Sep-25
1:1
| Deportivo |
| Aucas |
22-Jun-25
1:3
| Deportivo |
| Deportivo |
22-Feb-25
2:0
| Aucas |
| Aucas |
29-Sep-24
1:4
| Deportivo |
| Deportivo |
13-Apr-24
3:3
| Aucas |
| Deportivo |
04-Nov-23
0:0
| Aucas |
| Aucas |
28-May-23
0:2
| Deportivo |
| Deportivo |
30-Jul-22
1:2
| Aucas |
| Aucas |
12-Mar-22
0:0
| Deportivo |
Recent Matches of Aucas| 13 Dec |
Delfin.
|
-
| Aucas.
| |
| 07 Dec | L |
EL Nacional.
|
3:1
| Aucas.
|
Recent Matches of Deportivo
| 13 Dec |  Macara. |
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Dep. Cuenca. |
Ecuador - Liga Pro| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Independiente | 30 | 55-23 | 64 |
| 2 |
Barcelona SC | 30 | 46-33 | 54 |
| 3 |
LDU de Quito | 30 | 48-31 | 51 |
| 4 |
Universidad Ca | 30 | 58-39 | 49 |
| 5 |
Orense SC | 30 | 34-32 | 47 |
| 6 |
Libertad | 30 | 42-36 | 46 |
| 7 |
Deportivo Cuen | 30 | 35-29 | 46 |
| 8 |
Emelec | 30 | 30-34 | 42 |
| 9 |
Aucas | 30 | 38-41 | 41 |
| 10 |
Macara | 30 | 32-30 | 38 |
| 11 |
El Nacional | 30 | 32-46 | 34 |
| 12 |
Delfin SC | 30 | 26-42 | 31 |
| 13 |
Tecnico Univer | 30 | 26-46 | 28 |
| 14 |
Cuniburo | 30 | 34-43 | 27 |
| 15 |
Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 38-50 | 27 |
| 16 |
Manta FC | 30 | 34-53 | 26 |
