Augsburg vs Freiburg Prediction

Augsburg vs Freiburg Prediction: Odds, Stats & Expert Analysis

Welcome to our Augsburg vs Freiburg prediction, where we break down all the key stats, betting odds, and tactical news ahead of this Bundesliga meeting at the WWK ARENA on January 18, 2026. Whether you’re a stats nerd, a casual fan, or just love a good football story, we’ve got you covered with everything you need to know before placing your bets or just enjoying the match.

Setting the Scene: Form, Standings & Squad News

The Bundesliga’s 18th matchday brings us an intriguing encounter between Augsburg and Freiburg. The hosts, Augsburg, find themselves in a tricky 15th place, with just 14 points from 17 matches and a worrying -15 goal difference. Their recent form has been bumpy, to say the least—one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five, including a heavy 0-4 defeat to Borussia Mönchengladbach. On the other hand, Freiburg are sitting comfortably in 8th, with 23 points and a balanced record of 27 goals scored and 27 conceded. Their last five matches include three wins, a draw, and a single defeat to RB Leipzig.

Both teams have been active in the transfer market and dealing with some squad changes:

• FC Augsburg have brought in Rodrigo Ribeiro on loan from Sporting CP to add some spark up front, and Michael Gregoritsch has rejoined from Brondby. Elvis Rexhbecaj is back in the lineup after personal issues.
• SC Freiburg have had to shuffle their defense due to injuries, with Matthias Ginter missing out recently and young Bruno Ogbus stepping up. Eren Dinkci is fit but possibly on his way out, while the club has made a couple of midfield adjustments in the transfer window.

Tactically, Augsburg’s new coach Manuel Baum is still searching for the right formula, admitting after their recent loss that the team “weren’t compact enough” and need to tighten up defensively. Freiburg’s Julian Schuster, meanwhile, is getting praise for his handling of young players and keeping the team competitive despite injuries.

Head to Head: History & Recent Encounters

When it comes to Augsburg vs Freiburg prediction, the head to head record is as balanced as it gets. In their last five meetings, each side has two wins, with one draw. Across their last seven Bundesliga encounters, Freiburg have the slight edge with four wins to Augsburg’s two (and one draw). Their last match ended 0-0, but Augsburg did secure a memorable 3-1 win not long ago.

Augsburg fans will remember their shock 1-0 victory away at Borussia Dortmund last March—a result that came with long betting odds of 6.14 and proved that this side can surprise when least expected. Freiburg, meanwhile, showed their resilience by holding Bayern Munich to a 2-2 draw last season, despite being heavy underdogs.

Betting Odds, Predictions & Stats: What the Numbers Say

Let’s get down to the numbers that matter for your Augsburg vs Freiburg prediction. Here’s what the bookies and our expert AI are saying:

• Home win: 3.05
• Draw: 3.45
• Away win: 2.5

Our AI model sees the away team (Freiburg) as favorites, with a 1x2 prediction of “2” (away win), backed by a trust level of 4.5/10. The standout tip? “Away team will score” (AS), with a confidence of 6.8/10 and odds of 1.29. If you’re looking for a safer bet, the under 3.5 total goals market is also recommended, with a confidence rating of 3.1 and odds of 1.35.

• Predicted final score: Augsburg 1-2 Freiburg
• Half-time prediction: 1-1
• Possession: Augsburg 47%, Freiburg 53%
• Total shots: Augsburg 13, Freiburg 15
• On-target shots: Augsburg 4, Freiburg 5
• Total corners: 9 (Augsburg 4, Freiburg 5)
• Yellow cards: Augsburg 2, Freiburg 1

Looking at squad value, Freiburg also hold a slight edge (€162.70m vs €151.37m), which reflects their depth and recent league position. The stats point to a close contest, but one where Freiburg’s slightly better form and squad stability could make the difference.

NerdyTips Verdict: Augsburg vs Freiburg Prediction

All signs point to a tight game, but our Augsburg vs Freiburg prediction leans towards a narrow away win for Freiburg. Expect the visitors to edge it thanks to their balanced attack and slightly better defensive organization. Augsburg will put up a fight, especially at home, but unless their defense tightens up fast, Freiburg’s consistency should see them through. If you like your bets with a bit of safety, “away team to score” and “under 3.5 total goals” look like smart choices.

As always, football has a way of surprising us—just ask Dortmund fans about that Augsburg result last spring! But with the stats, form, and betting odds all considered, Freiburg look set to keep their top-half push on track.

• Best bet: Freiburg to win (2.5 odds)
• Alternative: Away team to score (1.29 odds)
• Value pick: Under 3.5 total goals (1.35 odds)

That wraps up our Augsburg vs Freiburg prediction for this Bundesliga battle. Enjoy the game, and may your bets be as on target as a Vincenzo Grifo free-kick!