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Match Prediction

AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen Prediction

Finished
Netherlands flag Netherlands
Eredivisie

AZ Alkmaar

€98.20m

11 May10:45
3 : 0

Groningen

€24.88m

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AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen Prediction Eredivisie

AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen Prediction: A High-Stakes Eredivisie Encounter

When AZ Alkmaar hosts Groningen at the AFAS Stadion on May 11, 2025, the stakes are clear: the home side aims to solidify their top-six standing, while the visitors chase mid-table security. Our AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen prediction dives into the stats, betting odds, and tactical nuances that could define this Eredivisie clash. With AZ priced at 1.67 for a win and Groningen at 5.0 for an upset, the numbers favor the hosts—but Dutch football loves a twist.

Tactical Breakdown and Key Stats

AZ Alkmaar’s dominance in possession (58% vs Groningen’s 42%) and their superior shot output (17 expected shots vs Groningen’s 9) suggest a one-sided affair. However, Groningen’s resilience in recent head to head matches—like their 2-2 draw with Feyenoord—hints at their ability to punch above their weight. Here’s what the data tells us:

  • Goals Galore? The sports betting market leans toward over 2.5 goals (odds 1.82, trust rating 4.7/10), reflecting AZ’s attacking flair and Groningen’s leaky defense.
  • Set-Piece Supremacy: AZ averages 7 corners per game to Groningen’s 2, a stat that could prove decisive in a tight match.
  • Defensive Frailties: Both teams have conceded in 53.3% of Eredivisie matches this season, aligning with the AI’s predicted 1-2 scoreline.

Betting Insights: Where’s the Value?

The betting odds paint a clear picture: AZ’s financial muscle (€98.2m squad value vs Groningen’s €24.88m) and league position (6th vs 9th) justify their favoritism. Yet, the AI’s low confidence in a Groningen win (trust 1.3/10) contrasts with its stronger belief in goals (trust 4.8/10). Here’s why:

  1. Historical Trends: Eredivisie away wins occur 30.2% of the time, but Groningen’s recent surprise results—like their 2-2 draw with Feyenoord—keep hope alive.
  2. Referee Factor: S. van der Eijk’s appointment could influence tempo; his lenient style might suit Groningen’s counter-attacking approach.
  3. Half-Time Dynamics: The predicted 0-1 HT scoreline reflects Groningen’s tendency to start aggressively, as seen in their 3-1 loss to AZ earlier this season.

Final Verdict: Expect Fireworks

While our AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen prediction leans toward a home win, the smarter sports betting play might be over 2.5 goals. With AZ’s 5 on-target attempts per game and Groningen’s 2, the odds (1.82) offer solid value. That said, Dutch football’s unpredictability—evidenced by AZ’s 2-2 draw at PSV—means a 1-2 upset isn’t entirely far-fetched. One thing’s certain: the AFAS Stadion will host a lively, stats-driven battle.

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AI Predictions
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AZ Alkmaar no motivation!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen

O2.5 -122

At least 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -122
4/10

1x2 Tip

2 400

Groningen is expected to win with odds of 400
1/10

Total Goals

Over 2.5 -122

At least 3 goals will be scored in the match
4/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes -125

Both teams are expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

X2&O1.5 162

Away win/draw and over 1.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

1:2

Stats Predictions

58%
Ball Possession
42%
17
Total Shots
9
5
Shots on Goal
2
6
Shots Off Goal
2
7
Corners
2

Average / Match

2.8
Total Goals
3.5
1.4
Goals Scored
1.9
1.4
Goals Against
1.6
50%
Possession
46%
14.2
Total Shots
11
4.9
Shots on Goal
4.3
5.3
Shots off Goal
3.1
11.9
Fouls
9.1
6.2
Corners
3.9
1
Offsides
1
1.78
Yellow Cards
1.2
0.2
Red Cards
0.1
444
Total Passes
394

Overview Last 10 Matches

2
Wins
4
7
Over 1.5 Goals
8
5
Over 2.5 Goals
6
4
Over 3.5 Goals
6
6
Both Teams Scored
8
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

AZ Alkmaar
15 - 9 - 8
Groningen
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 11-May-25
3:0
Groningen Groningen
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 18-Dec-24
3:1
Groningen Groningen
Groningen Groningen 25-Aug-24
0:0
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 11-Mar-23
1:0
Groningen Groningen
Groningen Groningen 01-Oct-22
1:4
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 21-Dec-21
1:0
Groningen Groningen
Groningen Groningen 24-Oct-21
2:0
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar
Groningen Groningen 13-May-21
0:0
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 06-Dec-20
1:2
Groningen Groningen

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2:2
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Profile time Recent Matches of Groningen

13 DecGroningen Groningen.
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Netherlands - Eredivisie Netherlands - Eredivisie

Team Matches Goals Points
1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven34
103-39
79
2 Ajax Ajax34
67-32
78
3 Feyenoord Feyenoord34
76-38
68
4 Utrecht Utrecht34
62-45
64
5 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar34
58-37
57
6 Twente Twente34
62-49
54
7 GO Ahead Eagles GO Ahead Eagle34
57-55
51
8 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen34
51-46
43
9 Heerenveen Heerenveen34
42-57
43
10 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle34
43-51
41
11 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittar34
37-54
41
12 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterd34
39-43
39
13 Groningen Groningen34
40-53
39
14 Heracles Heracles34
42-63
38
15 NAC Breda NAC Breda34
34-58
33
16 Willem II Willem II34
34-56
26
17 Waalwijk Waalwijk34
44-74
25
18 Almere City FC Almere City FC34
23-64
22
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