Preview
The Bari vs Palermo prediction for Friday, 2026-01-30 (19:30 GMT) feels like the kind of Serie B night where patience matters more than fireworks. Under the lights at Stadio San Nicola, Bari arrive with fresh hope, while Palermo travel like a team that expects to be involved in the promotion story until the final page.
Matchday 22 puts these sides in very different moods. Palermo sit 4th on 38 points and bring a 7-game unbeaten run that has made them one of the league’s most reliable teams. Bari, down in 17th with 20 points, are still looking over their shoulder, even if last week finally brought relief.
Filippo Inzaghi’s Palermo have leaned into a possession-first identity, often in a 4-3-3 that can turn into a press when the moment is right. Their last match, a 0-0 with Modena, showed the plan in full: 76% possession, control everywhere… and still no goal. That small warning matters here, because Bari are likely to offer space only if Palermo can force it open.
Vincenzo Vivarini’s Bari have been more pragmatic lately. In the 2-1 away win at Cesena (a surprise result given the 5.9 betting odds for Bari), they had just 37% of the ball but made their moments count. Expect Bari to sit deep again, protect the middle, and try to hit quickly when Palermo’s line steps up.
Team news adds a twist. Bari remain without Giuseppe Sibilli due to a long-term sports court suspension. Palermo are expected to miss Alexis Blin (yellow card accumulation), while defender Giangiacomo Magnani is out with a hamstring injury.
The head to head numbers lean Palermo in recent years, with the Rosanero winning most of the last meetings overall. Still, Bari will remember the most recent head to head on 2025-04-11: a 2-1 Bari win that proved this fixture can flip when Palermo get impatient.
Now to the Bari vs Palermo prediction from our numbers, where the market and the match script line up. The 1X2 betting odds price Palermo as the clear favorite: Home 4.9, Draw 3.45, Away 1.9. That’s the book saying Palermo are more likely to control the outcome, even if it is not pretty.
Why does X2 make sense for sports betting? Because the game model expects Palermo to have slightly more control (52% possession), more attempts (14 shots vs 7), and more pressure actions like corners (4 vs 2). But it also expects a tight finish: just 3 shots on target for Palermo and 2 for Bari. That points to a match where Palermo edge it, yet the draw is still a live risk.
In story terms, this looks like Palermo circling, Bari resisting, and one moment—possibly Pohjanpalo, possibly a second-ball chance—deciding it. For sports betting players, the safer lane is X2, while the bolder option is Palermo at 1.9, backed by the same logic that also supports under 3.5 goals.
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7
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8
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Palermo |
19-Sep-25
2:0
| Bari ![]() |
Bari |
11-Apr-25
2:1
| Palermo ![]() |
Palermo |
26-Dec-24
1:0
| Bari ![]() |
Palermo |
02-Feb-24
3:0
| Bari ![]() |
Bari |
18-Aug-23
0:0
| Palermo ![]() |
Palermo |
20-Jan-23
1:0
| Bari ![]() |
Bari |
19-Aug-22
1:1
| Palermo ![]() |
Bari |
24-Apr-22
0:2
| Palermo ![]() |
Palermo |
19-Dec-21
0:0
| Bari ![]() |
Bari |
18-Apr-21
2:2
| Palermo ![]() |
| 24 Jan | W |
Cesena.
|
1:2
| Bari.
|
| 17 Jan | L |
Bari.
|
0:1
| Juve Stabi.
|
| 10 Jan | L |
Carrarese.
|
1:0
| Bari.
|
| 27 Dec | D |
Bari.
|
1:1
| Avellino.
|
| 19 Dec | L |
Bari.
|
1:2
| Catanzaro.
|
| 13 Dec | D |
Sudtirol.
|
0:0
| Bari.
|
| 08 Dec | D |
Bari.
|
1:1
| Pescara.
|
| 04 Dec | D |
Juve Stabi.
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0:0
| Bari.
|
| 29 Nov | L |
Empoli.
|
5:0
| Bari.
|
| 22 Nov | L |
Bari.
|
2:3
| Frosinone.
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| 24 Jan | D | Modena. |
0:0 |
Palermo.![]() |
| 18 Jan | W | Palermo. |
1:0 |
Spezia.![]() |
| 11 Jan | D | Mantova. |
1:1 |
Palermo.![]() |
| 27 Dec | W | Palermo. |
1:0 |
Padova.![]() |
| 20 Dec | D | Avellino. |
2:2 |
Palermo.![]() |
| 12 Dec | W | Palermo. |
1:0 |
Sampdoria.![]() |
| 07 Dec | W | Empoli. |
1:3 |
Palermo.![]() |
| 29 Nov | W | Palermo. |
5:0 |
Carrarese.![]() |
| 22 Nov | D | Entella. |
1:1 |
Palermo.![]() |
| 08 Nov | L | Juve Stabi. |
1:0 |
Palermo.![]() |
Italy - Serie B| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Frosinone | 21 | 39-18 | 45 |
| 2 |
Venezia | 21 | 42-18 | 44 |
| 3 |
Monza | 21 | 32-17 | 41 |
| 4 |
Palermo | 21 | 30-14 | 38 |
| 5 |
Cesena | 21 | 28-24 | 34 |
| 6 |
Modena | 21 | 28-17 | 33 |
| 7 |
Juve Stabia | 21 | 23-22 | 33 |
| 8 |
Catanzaro | 21 | 27-24 | 32 |
| 9 |
Carrarese | 21 | 30-30 | 29 |
| 10 |
Empoli | 21 | 26-28 | 27 |
| 11 |
Sudtirol | 21 | 22-22 | 25 |
| 12 |
Padova | 21 | 20-25 | 25 |
| 13 |
Avellino | 21 | 24-34 | 25 |
| 14 |
Reggiana | 21 | 24-31 | 20 |
| 15 |
Spezia | 21 | 19-28 | 20 |
| 16 |
Virtus Entella | 21 | 18-28 | 20 |
| 17 |
Bari | 21 | 18-31 | 20 |
| 18 |
Sampdoria | 21 | 20-28 | 19 |
| 19 |
Mantova | 21 | 20-34 | 19 |
| 20 |
Pescara | 21 | 25-42 | 14 |