Benfica vs Alverca Prediction

Benfica vs Alverca prediction: goals expected at the Luz

Mark your calendars for 2026-02-08 at 20:30 GMT: the Benfica vs Alverca prediction story writes itself at Estádio da Luz in Lisbon, but the details still matter for smart sports betting. It’s Round 21, with Benfica chasing the title from 3rd (46 pts) and newly promoted Alverca sitting mid-table in 10th (24 pts) in their first Primeira Liga season since 2004.

Match context, form, and the tactical picture

Benfica arrive with a long unbeaten league run (12 matches), yet the mood is not perfect after a 0-0 with Tondela that let Porto (55) and Sporting (51) pull away. At home, though, the numbers are loud: Benfica average around three goals per match, and they usually play with strong control of the ball.

José Mourinho’s Benfica often line up in a 4-2-3-1, using possession (about 58% at home) to pin teams back and create chances through Georgiy Sudakov’s invention and Fredrik Aursnes’ intelligence between lines. Mourinho talked about the “culture of the group”, and goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin was clear too: after Tondela, they must refocus because every point is now precious.

Alverca, coached by Custódio, tend to use a 3-4-3 built on pressing, discipline, and a “nothing to lose” attitude. They’ve been competitive overall, but their away record is a worry: winless in 9 of the last 11 away league matches, often stuck around 33% possession on the road. Custódio has said the team is still “in construction” after a huge turnover of signings, and that can show when they have to defend for long spells.

• Key Benfica absences: Richard Ríos (shoulder), Alexander Bah (knee), plus Samuel Soares and João Veloso. Dodi Lukebakio could return, while Amar Dedic is being checked.
• Key Alverca absences: André Paulo, Léo Chu, Stéphane Diarra, Tomás Mendes.
• Main threats: Vangelis Pavlidis leads the league with 19 goals (and still hasn’t scored vs Alverca), while Marko Milovanović (Marezi) has 5 for Alverca, with Lincoln providing 3 assists.

There is also a fun side plot: Alverca signed Diogo Spencer permanently from Benfica II, and they also have former Benfica faces like André Gomes. Add the Vinícius Júnior investor connection, and Alverca won’t be short of motivation. In the earlier head to head this season (August 2025), Benfica edged it 2-1, so Alverca know they can at least annoy the Eagles for a while.

Benfica vs Alverca prediction: best tips and betting odds

The betting odds reflect the gap in power and squad value: Benfica are priced at 1.2 to win, the draw at 7.25, and Alverca at 19.5, with Benfica’s squad valued at €355.50m versus €34.40m. That difference doesn’t guarantee goals, but it usually guarantees territory.

NerdyTips angles for beginner bettors

• Best tip (AI): HS2+ (Benfica to score 2+ goals) at 1.36, trust 8.0/10. With Benfica’s home scoring rate and Alverca’s away issues, this fits the match script well.
• 1.2 prediction: Home win (1) at 1.2, trust 10.0/10. It’s the “don’t overthink it” option for sports betting, even if the price is short.
• Over/Under: Over 2.5 goals at 1.72 has low trust (2.7/10). It can land if Benfica start fast, but it’s less reliable because Alverca may sit deep and try to slow the game.

Our predicted final score is 3:0, with a 1:0 half-time score. Benfica have shown they can win big moments away from home too—remember that famous 0-1 at Ajax in 2022 when the odds were 8.1. And Alverca have their own upset memory, like the 1.2 win at Marítimo in 2024 at 5.25. Still, at the Luz, the simplest read for the Benfica vs Alverca prediction is: Benfica should win, and Benfica should score at least twice—preferably before Alverca’s bus finds second gear.