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Match Prediction

Benfica vs Casa Pia Prediction

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Portugal flag Portugal

Benfica

€357.00m

9 Nov16:30
2 : 2

Casa Pia

€27.95m

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Benfica vs Casa Pia Prediction Primeira Liga

Benfica vs Casa Pia Prediction: Odds, Stats & AI Insights for 2025

Welcome to our Benfica vs Casa Pia prediction, where we break down everything you need to know for this Primeira Liga fixture on November 9, 2025. Whether you’re a stats lover, a casual fan, or just here for the betting odds, we’ve got you covered with a blend of expert analysis and a dash of football fan humor.

Match Context: Form, Standings, and Team News

The stage is set at Estádio da Luz in Lisbon, with Benfica currently sitting comfortably in 3rd place, while Casa Pia finds themselves battling near the bottom in 16th. Recent form tells a story of two teams heading in different directions:

  • Benfica have won 4 of their last 6 matches across all competitions. Their results include a solid 2-0 win over Chaves in the Taca de Portugal and a hard-fought 2-1 victory against Gil Vicente in the league. However, they’ve also tasted defeat in Europe, losing 3-0 to Newcastle and 1-0 to Chelsea.
  • Casa Pia are struggling, with 3 losses in their last 6 league games. Their recent outings feature a 2-1 defeat to Moreirense and a heavy 4-0 loss to Porto. They did manage a 2-0 win over Arouca, but consistency is clearly an issue.

Head to head, Benfica have dominated this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 meetings. The most common scoreline when these two meet at Benfica’s ground? A 3-0 home win—something the Eagles’ fans wouldn’t mind seeing again.

Team Updates and Tactical Notes

  • Benfica will be missing G. Prestianni Gross (national team duty), A. Tué Na Bangna (suspension), and R. Rios (injury). Still, with a squad valued at €357 million, depth is hardly an issue.
  • Casa Pia have a new man at the helm, with Gonçalo Brandão stepping in after João Pereira’s departure. They’ll be without C. Mendes Vicente (sprain) and F. Tiago Silva (injury), which won’t help their cause.

Tactics remain under wraps, but with Benfica’s attacking firepower and Casa Pia’s recent defensive woes, it’s not hard to imagine which way this one might go. Fun fact: both teams tend to score a chunk of their goals late—between the 81st and 90th minute—so don’t switch off early!

Benfica vs Casa Pia Prediction: Odds, AI Tips & Expected Stats

Let’s get to the numbers that matter for your betting slip. The betting odds are heavily stacked in Benfica’s favor:

  • Home win: 1.17
  • Draw: 7.0
  • Away win: 15.0

Our AI at NerdyTips has crunched the data and here’s what stands out:

  1. HS2+ (Home Team to Score 2+ Goals): This is the most profitable bet, with a trust rating of 10.0/10 and odds of 1.25. Given Benfica’s attacking stats and Casa Pia’s leaky defense, this looks like a banker.
  2. 1x2 Prediction: We’re backing Benfica to win (1) with a trust level of 10.0 and odds of 1.17. The gulf in squad value (€357m vs €27.95m) and recent form makes this a logical pick.
  3. Over 2.5 Total Goals: Our AI projects a high-scoring affair, with a confidence rating of 4.1 and odds of 1.48. The predicted final score? A repeat of history: 3-0 to Benfica.

Digging deeper into the expected match stats:

  • Possession: Benfica 70%, Casa Pia 30%
  • Total shots: Benfica 15, Casa Pia 4
  • Corners: Benfica 6, Casa Pia 1
  • Yellow cards: Benfica 1, Casa Pia 3

If you’re looking for a quirky stat, both teams are expected to have zero shots on target—now, that’s either a typo or the world’s most defensive game plan! But in all seriousness, expect Benfica to dominate from start to finish.

Head to Head and Historical Perspective

  • Benfica have won 5 of the last 7 meetings, including a 3-0 win in August 2024.
  • Casa Pia’s last big upset was a 2-1 win over Braga in May 2025, but lightning rarely strikes twice at Estádio da Luz.
  • Benfica’s most famous underdog win in recent years? Their 1-0 away victory over Ajax in 2022, with odds of 8.1. But today, they’re the overwhelming favorites.

Final Verdict: Benfica vs Casa Pia Prediction & Best Bets

To wrap up our Benfica vs Casa Pia prediction, all signs point to a comfortable home win. The stats, the form, and the head to head record all favor Benfica. Our AI’s top tips:

  • Benfica to win (1x2) at 1.17 – high confidence
  • Benfica to score 2 or more goals (HS2+) at 1.25 – best value
  • Over 2.5 total goals at 1.48 – strong pick

Predicted final score: Benfica 3-0 Casa Pia (half-time: 2-0). Expect Benfica to control possession, rack up the shots and corners, and keep Casa Pia’s chances to a minimum. If you’re betting, keep it sensible—football can always surprise, but this one looks as straightforward as they come.

That’s our Benfica vs Casa Pia prediction—may your bets be lucky, and your snacks be plentiful!

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Benfica vs Casa Pia

HS2+ -400

Benfica is expected to score at least 2 goals with odds of -400
10/10

1x2 Tip

1 -588

Benfica is expected to win with odds of -588
10/10

Total Goals

Over 2.5 -208

At least 3 goals will be scored in the match
4/10

Both Teams To Score

No -161

At least one team is not expected to score
4/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

3:0

Stats Predictions

2.14
xG
0.35
70%
Ball Possession
30%
15
Total Shots
4
5
Shots Off Goal
2
6
Corners
1
1
Yellow Cards
3

Average / Match

1.57
Expected Goals
0.88
2.3
Total Goals
3.4
1.6
Goals Scored
1.4
0.7
Goals Against
2
56%
Possession
47%
12.8
Total Shots
9
5.1
Shots on Goal
2.9
5
Shots off Goal
4.1
11.1
Fouls
15.2
5.9
Corners
3.8
1
Offsides
1.2
2.4
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
465
Total Passes
336

Overview Last 10 Matches

5
Wins
3
7
Over 1.5 Goals
10
5
Over 2.5 Goals
6
1
Over 3.5 Goals
4
2
Both Teams Scored
4
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Benfica
4 - 1 - 1
Casa Pia
Casa Pia Casa Pia 25-Jan-25
3:1
 Benfica Benfica
Benfica Benfica 17-Aug-24
3:0
 Casa Pia Casa Pia
Casa Pia Casa Pia 17-Mar-24
0:1
 Benfica Benfica
Benfica Benfica 28-Oct-23
1:1
 Casa Pia Casa Pia
Benfica Benfica 04-Feb-23
3:0
 Casa Pia Casa Pia
Casa Pia Casa Pia 13-Aug-22
0:1
 Benfica Benfica

Profile time Recent Matches of Benfica

08 MarD Benfica Benfica 2 FC Porto FC Porto 2

Profile time Recent Matches of Casa Pia

07 MarDEstoril Estoril 0 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0

Portugal - Primeira Liga Portugal - Primeira Liga

Team Matches Goals Points
1 FC Porto FC Porto24
47-8
65
2 Sporting CP Sporting CP24
62-12
61
3 Benfica Benfica24
51-14
58
4 SC Braga SC Braga24
50-23
45
5 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente24
35-23
40
6 Famalicao Famalicao24
29-21
36
7 Moreirense Moreirense24
30-34
34
8 Estoril Estoril24
46-42
33
9 Guimaraes Guimaraes24
28-35
32
10 Alverca Alverca24
24-39
27
11 Arouca Arouca24
32-52
26
12 Estrela Estrela24
26-41
24
13 Casa Pia Casa Pia24
26-44
23
14 Nacional Nacional24
28-36
21
15 Rio Ave Rio Ave24
23-44
21
16 Santa Clara Santa Clara24
20-31
19
17 Tondela Tondela24
19-38
19
18 AVS AVS24
18-57
9
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