Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Portugal
Benfica
€362.50m
Sporting CP
€487.50m
Preview
As the sun sets over the Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica this Saturday, the stage is set for one of the most electrifying fixtures in recent Primeira Liga memory. Our Benfica vs Sporting CP prediction takes center stage with both Lisbon giants locked on 78 points after 32 matches, separated only by the thinnest sliver of goal difference. With just two games left in the season, this isn’t just a derby—it’s a potential title decider, and the tension in the Portuguese capital is palpable.
The bookmakers have spoken, tilting the scales ever so slightly in favor of the home side: Benfica are priced at 2.16 to win, with Sporting CP at 3.3 and the draw at 3.44. But why does NerdyTips’ AI lean towards a 1X bet (Benfica or Draw) at 1.33 odds, with a moderate 5.7/10 trust rating? The answer lies in the numbers—and a bit of home comfort.
Estádio da Luz has been a fortress for Benfica this season, and the wider league trend supports the hosts: 43.6% of Primeira Liga matches have ended in home wins. Expected possession sits at 53%-47% in Benfica’s favor, with projected shots at 12-8 (5-4 on target). These figures suggest a match where Benfica will look to dictate tempo, pushing Sporting onto the back foot, while Sporting’s counter-attacking threat remains ever-present.
If recent meetings are anything to go by, this fixture rarely disappoints. Their last head to head in April 2.164 ended in a pulsating 2.16 draw, and both teams have shown a penchant for high-scoring affairs. The over 2.5 goals market (1.75 odds, 4.1 trust) is tempting, especially with both sides averaging more than two goals per game in their last five outings. League-wide, 48.5% of matches have seen over 2.5 goals, and 48.3% have seen both teams score—a nod to the attacking intent that should be on display.
Expect Benfica to come out of the blocks quickly. The halftime prediction sits at 1-0 to the hosts, which aligns with their habit of fast starts in big games. Sporting, however, are nothing if not resilient. Who could forget their shock 0-0 draw at Manchester City in 2.16—a result that came in at a whopping 13.0 odds? That night, Sporting’s defensive discipline was on full display, and they’ll need every ounce of it here.
Discipline, too, will be key. With both teams known for their technical quality rather than roughhousing, expect a relatively clean contest—1-2 yellow cards is the likely outcome, unless, of course, the referee decides to make a name for himself (or herself, or themselves—Primeira Liga referees are notoriously anonymous until they’re not).
Here’s a twist worthy of a Portuguese telenovela: despite Benfica’s higher squad value (€3.3.50m vs. Sporting’s €487.50m), it’s often Sporting who have relished the underdog role in Europe. Remember Benfica’s 1-0 smash-and-grab at Ajax as 8.1 outsiders? If there’s one thing this rivalry teaches us, it’s to expect the unexpected.
With the title hanging in the balance, every pass, tackle, and shot will be magnified under the Lisbon floodlights. Our Benfica vs Sporting CP prediction is for a 3-0 home win, a scoreline that may raise eyebrows but is rooted in Benfica’s statistical edge at home, their attacking intent, and Sporting’s need to chase the game if they fall behind. Still, with both teams capable of brilliance—and chaos—no outcome is off the table.
From tactical chess matches to wild, end-to-end drama, this fixture has it all. Whether you’re searching for betting tips, head to head insights, or just the thrill of a title race on a knife edge, Saturday’s match promises to deliver. One thing’s for sure: the Primeira Liga trophy may well find its new home based on what happens at Estádio da Luz. Don’t blink—you might just miss the moment that decides it all.
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Derby match
1X -303
Benfica to win or draw with odds of -3031 116
Benfica is expected to win with odds of 116Over 2.5 -145
At least 3 goals will be scored in the matchNo 135
At least one team is not expected to score1X&O1.5 -182
Home win/draw and over 1.5 goals
3:0
|
|
17
-
12
-
10
|
|
 Sporting CP |
31-Jul-25
0:1
| Benfica  |
| Benfica |
25-May-25
1:3
| Sporting CP |
| Benfica |
10-May-25
1:1
| Sporting CP |
| Sporting CP |
11-Jan-25
1:1
| Benfica |
| Sporting CP |
29-Dec-24
1:0
| Benfica |
| Sporting CP |
06-Apr-24
2:1
| Benfica |
| Benfica |
02-Apr-24
2:2
| Sporting CP |
| Sporting CP |
29-Feb-24
2:1
| Benfica |
| Benfica |
12-Nov-23
2:1
| Sporting CP |
Recent Matches of Benfica| 10 Dec |
Benfica.
|
-
| Napoli.
| |
| 05 Dec | D |
Benfica.
|
1:1
| Sporting CP.
|
Recent Matches of Sporting CP
| 13 Dec | Sporting CP. |
- |
AFS. | |
| 09 Dec | L |  Bayern Munic. |
3:1 |
Sporting CP. |
| 05 Dec | D | Benfica. |
1:1 |
Sporting CP. |
Portugal - Primeira Liga| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Sporting CP | 34 | 88-27 | 82 |
| 2 |
Benfica | 34 | 84-28 | 80 |
| 3 |
FC Porto | 34 | 65-30 | 71 |
| 4 |
SC Braga | 34 | 55-30 | 66 |
| 5 |
Santa Clara | 34 | 36-32 | 57 |
| 6 |
Guimaraes | 34 | 47-37 | 54 |
| 7 |
Famalicao | 34 | 44-39 | 47 |
| 8 |
Estoril | 34 | 48-53 | 46 |
| 9 |
Casa Pia | 34 | 39-44 | 45 |
| 10 |
Moreirense | 34 | 42-50 | 40 |
| 11 |
Rio Ave | 34 | 39-55 | 38 |
| 12 |
Arouca | 34 | 35-49 | 38 |
| 13 |
GIL Vicente | 34 | 34-47 | 34 |
| 14 |
Nacional | 34 | 32-50 | 34 |
| 15 |
Estrela | 34 | 24-50 | 29 |
| 16 |
AVS | 34 | 25-60 | 27 |
| 17 |
Farense | 34 | 25-46 | 27 |
| 18 |
Boavista | 34 | 24-59 | 24 |
