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Match Prediction

Binacional vs Melgar Prediction

Finished

Binacional

€2.65m

12 Jul12:30
1 : 1

Melgar

€10.51m

Preview

Binacional vs Melgar Prediction Primera División

Binacional vs Melgar Prediction: NerdyTips’ Deep Dive for the 2025 Primera División

If you’re searching for the most insightful Binacional vs Melgar prediction ahead of the July 12, 2025 Primera División fixture, you’ve landed in the right place. The Estadio Guillermo Briceño Rosamedina is set to host a contest where statistics, odds, and a sprinkle of unpredictability collide—just the way football fans (and savvy bettors) like it.

Setting the Scene: Odds, Stakes, and Recent History

Let’s start with the numbers that matter. The betting odds for this encounter are as follows:

  • Binacional home win: 3.4
  • Draw: 3.25
  • Melgar away win: 2.05

On paper, Melgar are favorites, but not overwhelmingly so. That’s a nod both to their higher squad valuation (€10.51m vs Binacional’s €2.65m) and to recent head to head form. Rewind to October 29, 2023: Melgar edged Binacional 2-1, with similar odds (Binacional 3.25, Melgar 2.03). History, it seems, has a habit of repeating itself—at least according to the bookmakers.

League Trends: What the Primera División Tells Us

Before locking in any Binacional vs Melgar prediction, context is king. Here’s what the Primera División has taught us in recent years:

  • Home teams win 42.4% of matches
  • Away victories account for just 20.0%
  • Draws are surprisingly common at 37.6%
  • Both teams score in 43.9% of games
  • Over 1.5 goals: 63.4%
  • Over 2.5 goals: 42.4%
  • Over 3.5 goals: 24.4%

With Melgar’s away win probability sitting below the league’s home win average, and draws a frequent visitor, the X2 (draw or Melgar win) market becomes all the more appealing—especially at odds of 1.3 and a confidence score of 2.0.

AI Predictions and Value Bets: Where the Smart Money Goes

Our AI, after crunching the numbers, offers a slightly reserved but still valuable tip: under 3.5 goals (odds 1.28, trust score 6.6/10). Given that only 24.4% of league matches exceed three goals, this seems about as risky as betting on rain in Lima. The predicted final score? A pragmatic 0:1 in favor of Melgar, with a halftime stalemate (0:0). Expect a chess match rather than a goal fest.

  • Expected possession: Binacional 48%, Melgar 52%
  • Shots: Binacional 11, Melgar 13
  • Shots on target: 3 each
  • Corners: Binacional 3, Melgar 6
  • Yellow cards: Binacional 1, Melgar 2

These stats paint a picture of a game where Melgar might edge the initiative, but Binacional are no strangers to defying the odds. Remember their 0:1 away win over Garcilaso on April 27, 2025? The odds were a jaw-dropping 7.0, and yet, Binacional delivered. If you’re chasing value, never count out a surprise.

Head to Head: What’s Changed, What Hasn’t

Recent meetings suggest Melgar have the edge, but not by a landslide. The last encounter ended 1-2, and with both teams predicted to register three shots on target, this could be tight. The market expects under 3.5 goals, and with both teams scoring in only 43.9% of league games, a low-scoring affair is likely.

Final Verdict: Binacional vs Melgar Prediction for Bettors

To sum up our Binacional vs Melgar prediction:

  1. Under 3.5 total goals is the smartest, safest bet (odds 1.28, trust score 6.6/10).
  2. The X2 market (draw or Melgar win) offers solid value at 1.3, considering historical and current trends.
  3. Melgar to win 1-0 is the AI’s final score prediction—expect a tactical battle, not a shootout.

While Binacional have shown they can upset the odds, the smart money is on Melgar’s slight superiority and the league’s tendency towards low-to-moderate scoring. Enjoy the tactical chessboard—and may your bets be as sharp as your football wit!

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Binacional vs Melgar

U3.5 -357

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -357
6/10

1x2 Tip

X2 -333

Melgar to win or draw
2/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -357

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
6/10

Both Teams To Score

No -105

At least one team is not expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

X2&U4.5 -213

Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

0:1

Stats Predictions

48%
Ball Possession
52%
11
Total Shots
13
3
Shots on Goal
3
5
Shots Off Goal
5
3
Corners
6
1
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

2.8
Total Goals
2.2
0.9
Goals Scored
1
1.9
Goals Against
1.2
50%
Possession
53%
11.3
Total Shots
13.4
3.3
Shots on Goal
3.9
5.3
Shots off Goal
5.6
9.2
Fouls
10.4
2.8
Corners
6
1.6
Offsides
1.9
2.13
Yellow Cards
2.8
0.2
Red Cards
0
391
Total Passes
373

Overview Last 10 Matches

2
Wins
3
8
Over 1.5 Goals
7
5
Over 2.5 Goals
4
3
Over 3.5 Goals
1
7
Both Teams Scored
6
1
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Binacional
2 - 3 - 9
Melgar
Binacional Deportivo 29-Oct-23
1:2
Melgar Melgar
Melgar Melgar 11-Jun-23
2:1
Deportivo Binacional
Melgar Melgar 29-Sep-22
2:1
Deportivo Binacional
Binacional Deportivo 09-May-22
0:1
Melgar Melgar
Binacional Deportivo 01-Aug-21
1:5
Melgar Melgar
Binacional Deportivo 01-May-21
1:1
Melgar Melgar
Binacional Deportivo 08-Feb-20
2:4
Melgar Melgar
Melgar Melgar 14-Oct-19
1:0
Deportivo Binacional
Melgar Melgar 23-Jun-19
0:1
Deportivo Binacional

Profile time Recent Matches of Deportivo

Profile time Recent Matches of Melgar

31 JanFBC Melgar FBC Melgar.
-
Cienciano.Cienciano
25 JanWFBC Melgar FBC Melgar.
2:1
Macara.Macara

Peru - Primera División Peru - Primera División

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Universitario Universitario34
66-22
79
2 Cusco Cusco34
61-34
67
3 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima34
50-30
65
4 Sporting Cristal Sporting34
58-36
60
5 FBC Melgar FBC Melgar35
52-37
56
6 Alianza Atletico Alianza34
42-30
54
7 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo35
48-40
52
8 Sport Huancayo Sport Huancayo34
50-47
48
9 ADT ADT34
43-50
48
10 Cienciano Cienciano34
52-45
47
11 Cultural Santa Rosa Cultural Santa34
42-52
47
12 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau34
41-46
38
13 Sport Boys Sport Boys34
40-52
36
14 Juan Pablo II College Juan Pablo II34
33-48
33
15 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes33
34-52
33
16 UTC UTC34
33-59
32
17 Ayacucho FC Ayacucho FC33
29-51
29
18 Alianza Universidad Alianza34
36-66
25
19 Deportivo Binacional Deportivo18
20-33
18
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