Match Prediction
Match Prediction
England
Birmingham
€44.65m
Barnsley
€13.27m
Preview
Saturday afternoon football at St. Andrew’s @ Knighthead Park is always something to look forward to, and this April 5th fixture between Birmingham and Barnsley promises to offer plenty of intrigue. With kick-off set for 15:00 GMT, fans from both sides will be hoping for a strong showing — but if the stats and odds are anything to go by, it’s the home crowd that might be celebrating come full time.
Birmingham are coming into this one as clear favourites, with the bookmakers offering odds of just 1.32 for a home win. Barnsley, on the other hand, are priced at 8.8 — which tells you everything about how tough this trip is expected to be for the Tykes. A draw stands at 5.0, but even that feels like a long shot when you consider the gulf in squad value and recent form.
Let’s not sugarcoat it — Barnsley are up against it. With a squad worth just €13.27 million compared to Birmingham’s €44.65 million, the financial gap translates clearly onto the pitch. Birmingham are expected to control possession (forecasted at 68%) and create more chances, with 12 shots predicted — double what Barnsley are likely to manage. Even more telling: the Blues are expected to hit the target four times, while Barnsley might manage just two.
Still, football isn’t played on spreadsheets, and Barnsley have pulled off surprises before. A 1-1 draw against Fulham back in March 2022 showed they can dig deep when no one expects it. But this Birmingham side is a different beast at home, and the numbers support it.
Here's where things get interesting for punters. While Birmingham are favourites, the expected scoreline is a modest 2-1 win for the home side. That suggests value in the goal markets, particularly under 3.5 goals, which comes in with a trust rating of 4.8 and odds of 1.3. It’s not the most thrilling return, but for those looking for safer ground, it’s a solid option.
Both teams to score? It’s a real possibility. With 49.2% of League One matches seeing goals from both sides, and Barnsley predicted to notch at least once, this market could be worth a look — especially given the AI’s expected full-time scoreline of 2-1.
Based on analysis, the AI prediction for Birmingham vs Barnsley is a home win with a confidence rating of 5.4 out of 10, and odds of 1.32, making it the best 1X2 betting option for this game.
While Birmingham’s recent form has been a bit of a rollercoaster, they’ve shown they can pull off results when it matters — who could forget that dramatic 3-2 away win over West Brom back in 2022, a result that paid out at 6.6 for the brave few who backed them? Barnsley, meanwhile, have been more of a grind-it-out side, capable of frustrating stronger opponents, but they’ve struggled to find consistency on the road.
With referee S. Purkiss in charge, things are expected to stay relatively calm — just one yellow card projected for Birmingham and two for Barnsley — so don’t expect a card-fest. Corners are also forecast to favour the Blues, with five expected compared to just one for the visitors.
All signs point to a Birmingham win, but not a goal-fest. The smart money is on a professional, controlled performance from the home side, with Barnsley doing just enough to get on the scoresheet. If you're looking to bet, the best value might be found in the under 3.5 goals market and both teams to score, rather than chasing long odds on an upset.
Whether you're a die-hard Bluenose or just here for the betting tips, this one looks like a steady home win — not flashy, but effective. And sometimes, that’s all you need to keep the promotion dream alive.
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Birmingham didn't play better in the last H2H match!
1 -313
Birmingham is expected to win with odds of -3131 -313
Birmingham is expected to win with odds of -313Under 3.5 -200
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the matchYes -110
Both teams are expected to score1X&U4.5 -294
Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
2:1
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8
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4
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6
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|
 Birmingham |
05-Apr-25
6:2
| Barnsley  |
| Barnsley |
07-Dec-24
1:2
| Birmingham |
| Birmingham |
22-Jan-22
2:1
| Barnsley |
| Barnsley |
28-Aug-21
1:1
| Birmingham |
| Barnsley |
06-Mar-21
1:0
| Birmingham |
| Birmingham |
01-Dec-20
1:2
| Barnsley |
| Barnsley |
11-Feb-20
0:1
| Birmingham |
| Birmingham |
20-Aug-19
2:0
| Barnsley |
| Birmingham |
24-Feb-18
0:2
| Barnsley |
| Barnsley |
04-Nov-17
2:0
| Birmingham |
Recent Matches of Birmingham| 13 Dec | D |
Birmingham.
|
1:1
| Charlton.
|
| 09 Dec | L |
QPR.
|
2:1
| Birmingham.
|
Recent Matches Of Barnsley| 13 Dec | W | Barnsley. |
3:2 |
Leyton Orien. |
| 09 Dec | L |  Lincoln. |
3:1 |
Barnsley. |
England - League One| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Birmingham |
46 | 84-31 | 111 |
| 2 |
 Wrexham |
46 | 67-34 | 92 |
| 3 |
 Stockport Coun |
46 | 72-42 | 87 |
| 4 |
Charlton |
46 | 67-43 | 85 |
| 5 |
 Wycombe |
46 | 70-45 | 84 |
| 6 |
 Leyton Orient |
46 | 72-48 | 78 |
| 7 |
 Reading |
46 | 68-57 | 75 |
| 8 |
 Bolton |
46 | 67-70 | 68 |
| 9 |
 Blackpool |
46 | 72-60 | 67 |
| 10 |
 Huddersfield |
46 | 58-55 | 64 |
| 11 |
 Lincoln |
46 | 64-56 | 61 |
| 12 |
 Barnsley |
46 | 69-73 | 61 |
| 13 |
 Rotherham |
46 | 54-59 | 59 |
| 14 |
 Stevenage |
46 | 42-50 | 57 |
| 15 |
 Wigan |
46 | 40-42 | 56 |
| 16 |
 Exeter City |
46 | 49-65 | 56 |
| 17 |
 Mansfield Town |
46 | 60-73 | 54 |
| 18 |
 Peterborough |
46 | 68-81 | 51 |
| 19 |
 Northampton |
46 | 48-66 | 51 |
| 20 |
 Burton Albion |
46 | 49-66 | 47 |
| 21 |
 Crawley Town |
46 | 57-83 | 46 |
| 22 |
 Bristol Rovers |
46 | 44-76 | 43 |
| 23 |
 Cambridge Unit |
46 | 45-73 | 38 |
| 24 |
 Shrewsbury |
46 | 41-79 | 33 |
