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Bologna

€283.00m

12 Mar12:45
1 : 1

AS Roma

€418.00m

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Bologna vs AS Roma Prediction UEFA Europa League

Bologna vs AS Roma prediction: a tight first leg in Italy

The Bologna vs AS Roma prediction for Thursday, March 12, 2026 (kickoff 17:45 GMT) comes with a very “European” feel: two Serie A teams, a careful first leg at the Renato Dall’Ara, and a second leg waiting in Rome on March 19. With a quarter-final place on the line (and Aston Villa or Lille next), nobody will want to do anything silly early on—especially not in a tie that could easily be decided by one moment.

Match context, form, and what the game may look like

Roma arrive with the bigger domestic story. They finished the Europa League group phase in the top eight, skipping the playoff round, and they are right in the Serie A top-four race—sitting 4th on 50 points, level with Napoli, chasing Champions League football for the first time since 2017-18. Bologna, meanwhile, are 8th with 36 points, and with the league table not offering an easy shortcut to Europe, this competition naturally grows in importance.

Tactically, this first leg smells like control rather than chaos. Bologna usually try to be brave with the ball at home, but against Roma’s structure they may end up choosing smart risk instead of full risk. Roma, for their part, have shown they can suffer when needed—think back to that unexpected 2:2 away draw at Bayer Leverkusen in 2024, when the win price was huge and they still found a way to get something.

Key angles to keep in mind

  • First-leg logic: Bologna can’t afford to open the door for a Roma away goal party.
  • Head to head: the last meeting (2:2 on 2025-01-12) shows both can score, but knockout football often changes the mood.
  • Underdog warning: Bologna have annoyed big teams before, like that 1:1 with Inter in December 2025 despite Inter being strongly favored.

Betting odds and where the value may hide

The 1X2 betting odds suggest Roma are slight favorites: Home win 3.2, Draw 3.1, Away win 2.6. Squad value points the same way (€283.00m vs €418.00m), but this venue tends to make visitors work for everything.

Our AI picks: total goals first, then the result

For this Bologna vs AS Roma prediction, our model leans toward a low-scoring night. The top selection is Under 2.6 total goals at odds 1.59, with confidence 4.6/10 (also rated 4.7 in our goals projection). It’s not “banker” territory, but the match stats forecast explains why: expected possession is close (47% vs 53%), shots are even (11-11), and on-target attempts are limited (2 vs 3). That profile usually produces more tense minutes than goals.

  • Main bet: Under 2.6 total goals @ 1.59
  • AI 1X2 lean: Roma win (2) @ 2.6 with trust 2.6/10
  • Correct score call: 0:1
  • Half-time prediction: 0:0

Corners (3-4, total 7) and cards (1-1) are also projected to be modest, which fits a cautious first leg where both managers would prefer not to spend the second leg apologizing. If you want a simple betting plan: follow the total goals angle first, and only then consider Roma on the away win if you’re comfortable with a narrow margin.

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Bologna vs AS Roma

U2.5 -169

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -169
4/10

1x2 Tip

2 160

AS Roma is expected to win with odds of 160
2/10

Total Goals

Under 2.5 -169

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match
4/10

Both Teams To Score

No -122

At least one team is not expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

X2&U4.5 -185

Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
2/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

0:1

Stats Predictions

0.86
xG
1.35
47%
Ball Possession
53%
11
Total Shots
11
2
Shots on Goal
3
4
Shots Off Goal
3
3
Corners
4
1
Yellow Cards
1

Average / Match

1.22
Expected Goals
1.46
1.9
Total Goals
2.7
1.1
Goals Scored
1.7
0.8
Goals Against
1
54%
Possession
53%
14.7
Total Shots
12.7
4.2
Shots on Goal
4.1
6.2
Shots off Goal
4.8
13.3
Fouls
13.8
5.5
Corners
4.6
2.3
Offsides
2.1
1.6
Yellow Cards
1.6
433
Total Passes
463

Overview Last 10 Matches

6
Wins
4
5
Over 1.5 Goals
9
4
Over 2.5 Goals
4
0
Over 3.5 Goals
2
3
Both Teams Scored
5
0
Unexpected Wins
0
2
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Bologna
7 - 9 - 13
AS Roma
AS Roma AS Roma 23-Aug-25
1:0
Bologna Bologna
Bologna Bologna 12-Jan-25
2:2
AS Roma AS Roma
AS Roma AS Roma 10-Nov-24
2:3
Bologna Bologna
AS Roma AS Roma 22-Apr-24
1:3
Bologna Bologna
Bologna Bologna 17-Dec-23
2:0
AS Roma AS Roma
Bologna Bologna 14-May-23
0:0
AS Roma AS Roma
AS Roma AS Roma 04-Jan-23
1:0
Bologna Bologna
AS Roma AS Roma 01-May-22
0:0
Bologna Bologna

Profile time Recent Matches of Bologna

12 Apr Bologna Bologna - Lecce Lecce -
09 AprL Bologna Bologna 1 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3
05 AprW Cremonese Cremonese 1 Bologna Bologna 2
22 MarL Bologna Bologna 0 Lazio Lazio 2
19 MarW AS Roma AS Roma 3 Bologna Bologna 4
15 MarW Sassuolo Sassuolo 0 Bologna Bologna 1
12 MarD Bologna Bologna 1 AS Roma AS Roma 1
08 MarL Bologna Bologna 1 Hellas V Hellas V 2
02 MarW Pisa Pisa 0 Bologna Bologna 1
26 FebW Bologna Bologna 1 Brann Brann 0

Profile time Recent Matches of AS Roma

10 AprAS Roma AS Roma - Pisa Pisa -
05 AprLInter Inter 5 AS Roma AS Roma 2
22 MarWAS Roma AS Roma 1 Lecce Lecce 0
19 MarLAS Roma AS Roma 3 Bologna Bologna 4
15 MarLComo Como 2 AS Roma AS Roma 1
12 MarDBologna Bologna 1 AS Roma AS Roma 1
08 MarLGenoa Genoa 2 AS Roma AS Roma 1
01 MarDAS Roma AS Roma 3 Juventus Juventus 3
22 FebWAS Roma AS Roma 3 Cremonese Cremonese 0
15 FebDNapoli Napoli 2 AS Roma AS Roma 2

World - UEFA Europa League World - UEFA Europa League

Team M G P
1 Lyon Lyon818-521
2 Aston Villa Aston Villa814-621
3 FC Midtjylland FC Midtjylland818-819
4 Real Betis Real Betis813-717
5 FC Porto FC Porto813-717
6 SC Braga SC Braga811-517
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg810-417
8 AS Roma AS Roma813-616
9 Genk Genk811-716
10 Bologna Bologna814-715
11 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart815-915
12 Ferencvarosi TC Ferencvarosi812-1115
13 Nottingham Forest Nottingham815-714
14 Plzen Plzen88-314
15 FK Crvena Zvezda FK Crvena87-614
16 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo815-1113
17 PAOK PAOK817-1412
18 Lille Lille812-912
19 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe810-712
20 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos811-912
21 Celtic Celtic813-1511
22 Ludogorets Ludogorets812-1510
23 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb812-1610
24 Brann Brann89-119
25 BSC Young Boys BSC Young Boys810-169
26 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz85-117
27 FCSB FCSB89-167
28 GO Ahead Eagles GO Ahead86-147
29 Feyenoord Feyenoord811-156
30 FC Basel 1893 FC Basel 189389-136
31 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull810-156
32 Rangers Rangers85-144
33 Nice Nice87-153
34 Utrecht Utrecht85-151
35 Malmo FF Malmo FF84-151
36 Maccabi Tel Aviv Maccabi Tel82-221
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