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Match Prediction

Bolton vs Northampton Prediction

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League One

Bolton

€19.70m

4 Jan07:00
0 : 0

Northampton

€5.15m

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Bolton vs Northampton Prediction League One

Bolton vs Northampton Prediction: Betting Odds, Tips & Insights

Sunday lunchtime football at the Toughsheet Community Stadium? Yes, please! If you’re searching for a Bolton vs Northampton prediction, you’re in the right place. This League One fixture on January 4, 2026, brings together two sides with very different ambitions and recent fortunes. Let’s break down what you need to know before you place your bets, with a focus on tactics, recent form, and the all-important betting odds.

Form, Tactics & Team News: Bolton’s Fortress vs Northampton’s Struggles

Bolton Wanderers, currently sitting 6th in League One with 37 points, have made their home ground a real stronghold this season. They’ve won 8 out of 12 at home and conceded just 7 goals—a rock-solid record that’s hard to ignore for any sports betting fan. Their recent results show a team that’s hard to beat but not always dominant: a 1-1 draw with Doncaster, a narrow 2-1 win over Rotherham, and a couple of tight losses. That consistency at home, though, is what keeps them in the playoff hunt.

Northampton Town, meanwhile, are down in 19th with 27 points and have only managed 3 wins in 11 away trips. Their recent form has been patchy at best: a heavy 4.5 defeat to Burton, a 2-0 loss at Huddersfield, and only one win in their last five. The arrival of Kevin Nolan as manager in December 2024 could spark change, but the Cobblers are still searching for an identity under their new boss. Ross Fitzsimons, their keeper, is busy every week—he’s second in League One for saves per match, which says a lot about how much pressure Northampton face.

  • Head to head history? Bolton have won 5 of the last 7 meetings, Northampton just once. But, Northampton did beat Bolton 2-0 in their last match in September 2025, so there’s a bit of recent spice here.
  • Bolton’s squad value is nearly four times Northampton’s (€19.70m vs €4.55m)—a sign of the gulf in resources.
  • Bolton’s home defense is among the best in League One, conceding just 0.58 goals per home game.

AI Betting Predictions, Odds & Top Tips

Now, let’s talk numbers—because that’s what we do best at NerdyTips. The current betting odds have Bolton as clear favorites at 1.38 for the home win, while a draw is at 4.5 and a Northampton away win is a long shot at 7.9. The bookies clearly expect Bolton to control the game, and the stats back that up: 70% expected possession, 17 shots to Northampton’s 7, and a predicted 6-3 edge in corners.

  1. Best tip: Under 3.5 goals (odds: 1.38, trust rating: 3.8/10). Both teams have shown a tendency for low-scoring games, and with Bolton’s strong defense at home, a goal-fest seems unlikely.
  2. AI 1x2 prediction: X2 (draw or Northampton win) with a low trust level (2.0) and odds at 3.15. This is a bold call, given Bolton’s home form, but it’s not impossible—especially if Northampton can frustrate the hosts as they did in their last meeting.
  3. Expected score: 1-1, with a goalless first half. If you like betting on half-time/full-time outcomes or correct scores, this might tempt you.

What does it all mean for your Bolton vs Northampton prediction? The stats suggest Bolton will dominate possession and chances, but Northampton, under a new manager, could be stubborn. The AI’s preference for under 3.5 goals is sensible, given both teams’ recent scoring records and Bolton’s defensive strength at home. If you’re feeling adventurous, a draw at 4.5 offers value, but the safe play is the under 3.5 goals market.

  • Bolton vs Northampton prediction: Under 3.5 goals (odds: 1.38)
  • Value bet: Draw (odds: 4.5)
  • Correct score: 1-1

Final Thoughts: Where’s the Smart Money?

For sports betting fans, this League One match is all about weighing Bolton’s home strength against Northampton’s unpredictability. The betting odds favor Bolton, but football loves a story—and Northampton’s recent head to head win gives them hope. Our best tip? Stick with under 3.5 goals, and if you’re feeling lucky, sprinkle a little on the draw. That’s our Bolton vs Northampton prediction—good luck, and may your bets be as solid as Bolton’s defense!

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AI Predictions
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Warning

Bolton can be tired due to frequent matches

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Bolton vs Northampton

U3.5 -263

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -263
3/10

1x2 Tip

X2 205

Northampton to win or draw
2/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -263

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
3/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes 110

Both teams are expected to score
2/10

Bet Builder Tip

X2&U4.5 258

Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Half-Time Score

0:0

Correct Score

1:1

Stats Predictions

1.65
xG
0.5
70%
Ball Possession
30%
17
Total Shots
7
4
Shots on Goal
2
7
Shots Off Goal
2
6
Corners
3
1
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

1.46
Expected Goals
0.69
2
Total Goals
2.9
1
Goals Scored
1.4
1
Goals Against
1.5
63%
Possession
43%
14.9
Total Shots
10
3.9
Shots on Goal
3.2
6.8
Shots off Goal
3.7
7.8
Fouls
11.2
5.7
Corners
5.7
1
Offsides
2.3
1.44
Yellow Cards
2
508
Total Passes
273

Overview Last 10 Matches

4
Wins
4
6
Over 1.5 Goals
9
4
Over 2.5 Goals
6
1
Over 3.5 Goals
3
4
Both Teams Scored
6
0
Unexpected Wins
0
1
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Bolton
5 - 1 - 1
Northampton
Northampton Northampton 27-Sep-25
2:0
Bolton Bolton
Bolton Bolton 28-Jan-25
3:1
Northampton Northampton
Northampton Northampton 01-Oct-24
2:4
Bolton Bolton
Northampton Northampton 10-Feb-24
1:1
Bolton Bolton
Bolton Bolton 21-Oct-23
2:1
Northampton Northampton
Bolton Bolton 18-Mar-17
2:1
Northampton Northampton
Northampton Northampton 26-Nov-16
0:1
Bolton Bolton

Profile time Recent Matches of Bolton

17 Jan Wigan Wigan.
-
Bolton. Bolton
13 JanL Bolton Bolton.
0:1
Port Vale. Port Vale
10 JanL Peterborough Peterborough.
3:1
Bolton. Bolton
04 JanD Bolton Bolton.
0:0
Northampton. Northampton
01 JanD Doncaster Doncaster.
1:1
Bolton. Bolton
29 DecL Bolton Bolton.
0:1
Mansfield. Mansfield
26 DecW Bolton Bolton.
1:0
Rotherham. Rotherham
20 DecL Wycombe Wycombe.
2:1
Bolton. Bolton
13 DecW Bolton Bolton.
2:1
Exeter. Exeter
09 DecW Mansfield Mansfield.
0:1
Bolton. Bolton

Profile time Recent Matches of Northampton

14 JanNorthampton Northampton.
-
Walsall.Walsall
04 JanDBolton Bolton.
0:0
Northampton.Northampton
01 JanDNorthampton Northampton.
0:0
Stockport.Stockport
29 DecLHuddersfield Huddersfield.
2:0
Northampton.Northampton
26 DecLBurton Burton.
5:1
Northampton.Northampton
19 DecWNorthampton Northampton.
3:1
AFC Wimbledo.AFC Wimbledon
13 DecLPeterborough Peterborough.
2:1
Northampton.Northampton
09 DecDNorthampton Northampton.
1:1
Huddersfield.Huddersfield
02 DecWNorthampton Northampton.
2:0
Wycombe.Wycombe
29 NovWPlymouth Plymouth.
0:3
Northampton.Northampton

England - League One England - League One

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Cardiff Cardiff25
43-25
52
2 Lincoln Lincoln25
40-26
48
3 Bradford Bradford24
34-25
46
4 Stockport County Stockport Coun25
34-30
42
5 Huddersfield Huddersfield26
45-35
39
6 Bolton Bolton25
32-25
39
7 Luton Luton25
35-30
38
8 Stevenage Stevenage23
27-20
37
9 Reading Reading24
32-28
35
10 Peterborough Peterborough25
33-34
35
11 Wycombe Wycombe25
32-28
33
12 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town23
31-28
32
13 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon24
27-33
31
14 Exeter City Exeter City24
25-23
30
15 Wigan Wigan24
26-27
30
16 Plymouth Plymouth25
32-39
30
17 Barnsley Barnsley21
33-33
29
18 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient25
36-42
29
19 Blackpool Blackpool25
31-37
29
20 Northampton Northampton24
22-28
29
21 Burton Albion Burton Albion24
23-34
27
22 Rotherham Rotherham24
22-35
24
23 Doncaster Doncaster24
24-41
23
24 Port Vale Port Vale23
18-31
18
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