Botev Vratsa vs Dobrudzha Prediction

Botev Vratsa vs Dobrudzha prediction: tight game, tiny margins

The Botev Vratsa vs Dobrudzha prediction for 16 February 2026 (15:30 GMT) feels like one of those Parva Liga afternoons where the loudest moment might be a scrambled winner rather than a goal fest. Round 21 brings us to the Hristo Botev Stadium in Vratsa, with Botev sitting 9th on 25 points and newly promoted Dobrudzha 15th on 15 points—two teams living different realities, but sharing the same pressure.

Botev Vratsa’s week has been the football version of “almost, but not quite”. A 1–3 league loss to Levski on 7 February was followed by a wild Bulgarian Cup exit against Arda on 11 February (2–3), and coach Todor Simov didn’t hide the irritation: easy goals conceded, not enough ruthlessness during their good spells. That matters here, because Dobrudzha arrive with survival urgency and just got a confidence refill.

Team news, tactics, and what the game may look like

Simov is expected to keep Botev in a 4-2-3-1, leaning on structure first, then letting their creators decide the tempo. Dobrudzha, under Slavko Matic, have leaned into discipline and compact lines, but their 3–0 win over Septemvri Sofia on 8 February showed they can also punish teams when the chances finally come.

• Likely Botev plan: patient possession, use the “10” pockets, and avoid the defensive lapses Simov keeps mentioning.
• Likely Dobrudzha plan: stay narrow, protect the central zones, then break using fresh pace out wide.
• Key Botev names: Dimitar Evtimov in goal, Martin Petkov up top, and Radoslav Tsonev as the creative engine (and reliable from the spot).
• Key Dobrudzha names: Tomas Silva for consistency, plus January additions Aaron Appiah and Boubacar Hanne for width and speed.

On the availability front, Botev remain without left-back Martin Achkov (long-term). Daniel Genov and Martin Smolenski are also one booking away from suspension—worth remembering if this becomes a tense, stop-start match. Dobrudzha are missing centre-back Zdravko Serafimov (meniscus), while Matheus Leoni and Jhonatan Cuero are walking a yellow-card tightrope.

The head to head story is fresh: this is the third meeting this season. Botev won 2.07 in August, and then edged the Cup tie in December on penalties after a 0–0 draw. Add Botev’s solid home history against Dobrudzha, and you can see why the hosts look slightly favoured—though Dobrudzha have shown they can surprise, like that unexpected 0–0 away at CSKA 1948 back in December. Botev have their own upset memory too: the 0–2 away win at Arda in September at odds around 5.0.

AI betting tips and stats for the Botev Vratsa vs Dobrudzha prediction

Now to the numbers that shape our Botev Vratsa vs Dobrudzha prediction on NerdyTips. The market prices the home win at 2.07, draw at 3.2, away win at 4.5—leaning Botev, but not screaming certainty. Our 1X2 call is Home win at 2.072, yet with a modest trust rating of 3.2, which is basically the model saying: “Yes… but keep your seatbelt on.”

Main angle: expect few goals

The strongest betting tips point in one direction: a tight scoreline. The top AI tip is Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.53) with confidence around 6/10, and the under/over prediction repeats that view (confidence 6.1). The projected final score is 1–0, with a 0–0 half-time—very on-brand for a match where one mistake could decide everything.

• Best tip: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.53
• 1X2 lean: Botev Vratsa to win @ ~2.07 (model price 2.072)
• Correct score idea: 1–0 (HT 0–0)

How the match stats support that idea

The stat forecast also leans to a controlled, slightly scrappy game. Possession is close (52%–48%), total shots are modest (12–8), and corners sit around nine (5–4). Interestingly, Dobrudzha are projected for more shots on target (4) than Botev (3), which hints at two things: Botev may take lower-quality attempts, and Dobrudzha could create a couple of clear looks on the break. Still, with both sides forecast for two yellow cards each, we may get plenty of interruptions—never a friend of high-scoring football.

Finally, squad values (€5.62m vs €4.51m) give Botev a small resources edge, but not enough to expect a comfortable cruise. So, for bettors: take the low-goal route first, and treat the home win as a secondary option—because in a relegation-tinged game like this, drama is always on the bench, lacing its boots.