Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Spain
Preview
Saturday night in Cádiz has a familiar feel: salty air, tight stands, and a game that usually asks hard questions. This Cadiz CF vs Almeria prediction is for February 7, 2026 (20:00 GMT) at the Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, and it lands right in the thick of the Segunda División story. Almería arrive 4th with 39 points and promotion in mind; Cádiz sit 11th on 34 points, close enough to the play-off line to start dreaming, but far enough to know every mistake costs.
It also has that regional edge where tackles arrive early and referees warm up their card arm. Cádiz have not been a “free-scoring” side lately, and their recent run has been patchy—most recently a 1-0 loss to Huesca on February 1. Almería, meanwhile, come in with a sunnier mood after a 4-2 win over Ceuta, even if their defending can still wander off like a tourist without a map.
Gaizka Garitano’s Cádiz are usually built from the back forward: compact lines, clear roles, and a preference for making the match uncomfortable for visitors. Expect a 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1 that stays close together and tries to hurt Almería on transitions rather than long spells of possession. Garitano has openly pointed to a scoring issue, and the winter additions are supposed to help—no pressure, lads.
Rubi’s Almería, on the other hand, tend to play bigger. His 4-2-3-1 is designed to keep the ball, push full-backs on, and let the attacking midfield line rotate. Sergio Arribas has been the headline act with 12 league goals, often floating between lines where defenders hate to pass him on and midfielders hate to track him. Rubi has even admitted that Garitano-style “defensive walls” can be awkward for his teams, so patience could be the word, not fireworks.
For the head to head, Cádiz have historically had the upper hand over many meetings, but recent memory matters too: Almería won 3-0 in November 2025, and Cádiz have not forgotten. Still, the last recorded meeting on 2025-05-09 finished Cádiz 2-1 Almería, with bookmakers then pricing Cádiz at 3.24 and Almería at 2.25—another reminder that this fixture likes to ignore neat narratives.
The market has Almería as a slight favorite: home win 2.657, draw 3.35, away win 2.657. That fits the table and squad values too—Cádiz at €24.80m versus Almería at €45.75m—but football is not traded like gold. Cádiz already showed they can punch above their price tag, like the 2-2 draw away at La Coruna on 2026-01-04 (win odds were 5.0). Almería have their own “we weren’t supposed to” story as well, with that 2-2 at Mallorca back in 2024 when they were priced at 8.6 to win.
Our models lean toward Almería having the initiative: 56% possession to Cádiz’s 44%, with shots projected at 13-11 and on-target at 5-3 in Almería’s favor. That points toward Almería producing more “real” chances, even if Cádiz might win more corners (5-3).
Why does the “away team to score” stand out? Because the numbers and the match-up agree. Almería’s attack is one of the division’s best, Arribas finds shots in crowded areas, and Cádiz are missing pieces in defense. Even a disciplined Garitano setup can bend if you lose too many reliable bodies.
The 1X2 is trickier, and our lower trust level reflects that. Cádiz at home can turn games into slow burns, and Almería have had defensive lapses (including a habit of giving away penalties). That said, if Almería dominate the ball as predicted and land 5 on-target shots, the away win at 2.657 becomes a reasonable sports betting position—just not one to mortgage the house for.
Put it together, and the cleanest read for many bettors is simple: Almería should get on the scoresheet, and two goals in the match is a realistic baseline. For anyone shopping betting odds, this Cadiz CF vs Almeria prediction ends up sounding less like poetry and more like good business: back Almería to score, consider Over 1.5, and treat the away win as the higher-risk dessert rather than the main course.
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AS -357
Almeria is expected to score at least 1 goal with odds of -3572 160
Almeria is expected to win with odds of 160Over 1.5 -323
At least 2 goals will be scored in the matchYes -141
Both teams are expected to scoreX2&O1.5 -120
Away win/draw and over 1.5 goals
1:2
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6
-
7
-
3
|
|
 Almeria |
16-Nov-25
3:0
| Cadiz CF  |
| Cadiz CF |
09-May-25
2:1
| Almeria |
| Almeria |
22-Dec-24
1:1
| Cadiz CF |
| Almeria |
25-May-24
6:1
| Cadiz CF |
| Cadiz CF |
26-Aug-23
1:1
| Almeria |
| Almeria |
18-Mar-23
1:1
| Cadiz CF |
| Cadiz CF |
30-Dec-22
1:1
| Almeria |
| Cadiz CF |
01-Aug-21
1:2
| Almeria |
| Cadiz CF |
29-Feb-20
2:1
| Almeria |
| Almeria |
29-Sep-19
1:2
| Cadiz CF |
Recent Matches of Cadiz CF| 06 Mar | L |
Cadiz CF
| 0 |
Zaragoza
| 1 |
| 01 Mar | L |
Eibar
| 3 |
Cadiz CF
| 1 |
| 23 Feb | L |
Cadiz CF
| 0 |
Real II
| 2 |
| 14 Feb | D |
Burgos CF
| 1 |
Cadiz CF
| 1 |
| 08 Feb | L |
Cadiz CF
| 1 |
Almeria
| 2 |
| 01 Feb | L |
Huesca
| 1 |
Cadiz CF
| 0 |
| 24 Jan | L |
Cadiz CF
| 1 |
Granada CF
| 2 |
| 18 Jan | L |
Albacete
| 1 |
Cadiz CF
| 0 |
| 09 Jan | W |
Cadiz CF
| 3 |
Gijon
| 2 |
| 04 Jan | D |
Deportivo
| 2 |
Cadiz CF
| 2 |
Recent Matches of Almeria
| 09 Mar | Almeria |
- |  Cultural |
- | |
| 27 Feb | D |  Albacete |
1 | Almeria |
1 |
| 21 Feb | W | Almeria |
2 |  Cordoba |
1 |
| 13 Feb | W | Almeria |
3 |  Andorra |
2 |
| 08 Feb | W | Cadiz CF |
1 | Almeria |
2 |
| 01 Feb | W | Almeria |
4 |  Ceuta |
2 |
| 25 Jan | L |  Eibar |
1 | Almeria |
0 |
| 17 Jan | L | Almeria |
1 |  Deportivo |
2 |
| 10 Jan | D |  Mirandes |
2 | Almeria |
2 |
| 03 Jan | W | Almeria |
3 |  Granada CF |
2 |
Spain - Segunda División| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Racing | 29 | 60-39 | 56 |
| 2 |
Castellón | 29 | 48-33 | 49 |
| 3 |
Almeria | 28 | 53-40 | 49 |
| 4 |
Deportivo La | 29 | 44-33 | 49 |
| 5 |
Las Palmas | 29 | 38-22 | 48 |
| 6 |
Malaga | 29 | 44-34 | 48 |
| 7 |
Burgos | 29 | 32-26 | 46 |
| 8 |
AD Ceuta FC | 29 | 36-43 | 44 |
| 9 |
Sporting Gijon | 29 | 38-37 | 42 |
| 10 |
Eibar | 29 | 32-30 | 41 |
| 11 |
Cordoba | 29 | 41-41 | 41 |
| 12 |
FC Andorra | 29 | 36-40 | 38 |
| 13 |
Real Sociedad | 29 | 42-41 | 37 |
| 14 |
Albacete | 29 | 33-39 | 36 |
| 15 |
Granada CF | 29 | 34-33 | 35 |
| 16 |
Cadiz | 29 | 29-36 | 35 |
| 17 |
Leganes | 29 | 29-29 | 34 |
| 18 |
Valladolid | 29 | 32-41 | 33 |
| 19 |
Huesca | 29 | 26-37 | 31 |
| 20 |
Cultural | 28 | 27-44 | 27 |
| 21 |
Zaragoza | 29 | 24-41 | 27 |
| 22 |
Mirandes | 29 | 28-47 | 24 |
