Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Italy
Preview
Picture this: two Italian lower-league sides, separated by just €260,000 in squad value, playing in front of a few hundred passionate fans on a Sunday afternoon. The stakes? Bragging rights, playoff momentum, and—if you're the betting type—a sneaky opportunity to outsmart the bookmakers. Welcome to Campodarsego vs Luparense, where the numbers suggest we're in for a tense, tactical battle that might just defy expectations.
Let's start with the elephant in the room: Serie D loves a draw. A staggering 42.7% of matches in this division end all square, and when these two met last February, they followed the script with a 1-1 stalemate. Fast forward to April 2025, and the oddsmakers see another coin-flip contest—home win (2.25), draw (3.1), away win (2.92). But here's where it gets interesting: NerdyTips' AI crunched the numbers and spotted value in backing Luparense or the draw (X2) at 1.55, along with under 2.5 goals at 1.68. The machine even predicts a 0-1 away win, which would echo Campodarsego's shock 0-1 victory at Arzignano back in 2022 (a result that paid out at 5.35 odds, for those keeping score).
If you're expecting end-to-end chaos, you might want to temper those expectations. Only 38.6% of Serie D games surpass 2.5 goals, and this fixture's data paints a particularly defensive picture. While 59.9% of matches clear 1.5 goals, a mere 24.2% breach 3.5—meaning if you're watching this one, don't blink during the first half. Luparense's slightly leaner squad valuation (€1.25m vs Campodarsego's 'whopping' €1.51m) hints at a team built for grit rather than glamour. And let's be honest, when was the last time a €260k financial gap made headlines outside of football's accounting departments?
Campodarsego's home form has been... let's call it 'unpredictable.' They're the kind of team that can look like world-beaters one week and then lose to the league's bottom side the next. Their 1-1 draw with Luparense last season was classic Serie D fare—a scrappy midfield battle decided by one moment of quality (or luck, depending on who you ask). The hosts will likely lean on their marginally superior budget to control possession, but as any lower-league fan knows, money talks far quieter in Serie D than in Serie A.
Luparense, meanwhile, arrive with the subtle confidence of a team that knows how to spoil parties. Their defensive organization—coupled with Campodarsego's occasional struggles to break down compact sides—makes that AI prediction of a 0-1 away win feel less outlandish than the odds suggest. And with both teams scoring in just 44.2% of their respective matches, don't be surprised if this turns into a battle of set-pieces and half-chances.
Here's the nerdy part: while the AI's confidence ratings are modest (2.0/10 for X2, 3.6/10 for under 2.5 goals), the trends align beautifully. Serie D's draw-heavy nature, Luparense's underdog resilience, and Campodarsego's Jekyll-and-Hyde home form create perfect conditions for a low-scoring grind. If you're feeling adventurous, a small wager on Luparense to win 1-0 (likely around 7.00 odds) could be the dark horse pick—after all, Campodarsego's defense has been known to gift opponents the occasional 'how did that go in?' moment.
So, will it be Luparense's grind or Campodarsego's gamble that decides this one? The smart money says this stays tight, likely decided by a single goal—if any. Keep an eye on the first 30 minutes; if it's still 0-0 by then, the under 2.5 goals bet starts looking like the safest pick since sliced bread. And if you're the type who enjoys a tactical chess match more than a goal-fest, this might just be your Serie D highlight of the weekend.
One thing's certain: at Centro Sportivo Il Gabbiano, where the stands are close enough to hear every frustrated shout from the bench, the tension will be palpable. Because in Serie D, where dreams are modest but passions run deep, every point feels like a trophy. Even the boring ones.
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U2.5 -147
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -147X2 -182
Luparense to win or drawUnder 2.5 -147
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the matchNo -116
At least one team is not expected to scoreX2&U4.5 -128
Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
0:1
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|
4
-
3
-
3
|
|
 Campodarsego |
06-Apr-25
3:1
| Luparense  |
| Luparense |
24-Nov-24
2:1
| Campodarsego |
| Campodarsego |
18-Feb-24
1:1
| Luparense |
| Luparense |
15-Oct-23
1:2
| Campodarsego |
| Campodarsego |
21-May-23
2:2
| Luparense |
| Campodarsego |
06-Apr-23
0:0
| Luparense |
| Luparense |
27-Nov-22
4:2
| Campodarsego |
| Campodarsego |
23-Apr-22
1:0
| Luparense |
| Luparense |
08-Dec-21
3:1
| Campodarsego |
Recent Matches of Campodarsego| 25 Jan | D |
Campodarsego.
|
0:0
| Treviso.
|
Recent Matches of Luparense
| 25 Jan | W |  Calvi Noale. |
0:1 |
Luparense. |
Italy - Serie D - Girone C| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Dolomiti | 38 | 65-39 | 78 |
| 2 |
Treviso | 38 | 59-32 | 74 |
| 3 |
Villa Valle | 38 | 62-44 | 67 |
| 4 |
Adriese | 38 | 55-31 | 66 |
| 5 |
Mestre | 38 | 40-34 | 64 |
| 6 |
Campodarsego | 38 | 52-36 | 62 |
| 7 |
Brusaporto | 38 | 46-37 | 60 |
| 8 |
Luparense | 38 | 48-36 | 56 |
| 9 |
Real Calepina | 38 | 44-44 | 55 |
| 10 |
Cjarlins | 38 | 50-49 | 55 |
| 11 |
Este | 38 | 50-50 | 54 |
| 12 |
Brian Lignano | 38 | 45-49 | 48 |
| 13 |
Calvi Noale | 38 | 44-44 | 47 |
| 14 |
Bassano Virtus | 38 | 43-36 | 47 |
| 15 |
Portosummaga | 38 | 32-36 | 46 |
| 16 |
Caravaggio | 38 | 42-54 | 41 |
| 17 |
Virtus Ciserano | 38 | 42-55 | 40 |
| 18 |
Chions | 38 | 35-59 | 30 |
| 19 |
Montecchio | 38 | 32-55 | 27 |
| 20 |
Lavis | 38 | 25-91 | 12 |
