Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Costa-Rica
Preview
The upcoming Liga de Ascenso fixture between Carmelita and Upala promises to be a fascinating encounter, blending unpredictability with high stakes. Scheduled for April 12, 2025, at Estadio Rafael Bolaños, this match could shake up the league table in ways few might expect. Both teams have recently defied the odds, suggesting that betting on this game requires a mix of caution and boldness.
Camelita’s recent 1-1 draw against ADR Jicaral, despite being priced at 6.5 odds, showcased their ability to grind out results against tougher opponents. Meanwhile, Upala’s stunning 2-5 away victory over Quepos Cambute—a match where they were heavy underdogs at 13.0 odds—proved they can turn on the style when least expected. These results hint at a match where conventional wisdom might not apply, making the betting markets particularly intriguing.
The bookmakers have Carmelita as slight favorites at 2.1 for a home win, with Upala close behind at 2.9 and a draw priced at 3.5. Historically, home teams in the Liga de Ascenso win 45.3% of matches, while away victories occur just 25.5% of the time. Draws, meanwhile, account for 29.2%. Given these trends, Carmelita’s home advantage seems significant—but Upala’s recent away heroics add a layer of complexity. The 1X prediction (home win or draw) at 1.34 odds feels like a safe bet, but with Upala’s newfound confidence, it’s far from a lock.
The AI strongly favors over 2.5 goals at 1.37 odds, and for good reason. The league averages 51.2% of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, and both teams have shown attacking flair in recent outings. Upala’s five-goal explosion against Quepos Cambute suggests they’re capable of lighting up the scoreboard, while Carmelita’s resilience might not be enough to keep them at bay. The predicted 2-2 scoreline (with a 1-1 halftime split) reinforces this expectation.
However, the head-to-head record tells a slightly different story. The last meeting between these two ended in a tight 1-0 win for Carmelita, with odds of 1.65 compared to Upala’s 4.33. That result might tempt some to lean toward a lower-scoring affair, but current form suggests otherwise. Upala’s recent goal glut might make over 2.5 goals a banker, but Carmelita’s stubbornness could keep things interesting.
Both teams have shown a tendency to attack, with the league’s 74.7% over 1.5 goals rate aligning neatly with their styles. Carmelita will likely rely on their home crowd to push them forward, while Upala’s counter-attacking prowess could exploit any gaps left behind. This dynamic makes the both teams to score market appealing, especially given that 55.1% of league matches see both sides find the net.
For bettors, the AI’s top pick of over 2.5 goals feels like the smart play, but it’s worth considering a smaller stake on a correct score of 2-2 for those seeking higher odds. The 1X prediction is a safer alternative, but Upala’s recent form means it’s not without risk.
The Carmelita vs Upala prediction hinges on whether recent form outweighs historical trends. While the numbers lean toward goals and a competitive match, the Liga de Ascenso has a habit of delivering the unexpected. For those looking to place a wager, the over 2.5 goals market offers the best balance of value and confidence. Just don’t be shocked if this game throws another curveball—after all, that’s what makes it so compelling.
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Meaningless match!
O2.5 -270
At least 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -2701X -294
Carmelita to win or drawOver 2.5 -270
At least 3 goals will be scored in the matchYes -286
Both teams are expected to score1X&O1.5 -233
Home win/draw and over 1.5 goals
2:2
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2
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1
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1
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 AD Carmelita |
12-Apr-25
0:3
| Deportivo U  |
| Deportivo U |
03-Mar-25
1:2
| AD Carmelita |
| Deportivo U |
01-Nov-24
3:3
| AD Carmelita |
Recent Matches of AD Carmelita
Recent Matches of Deportivo U
| 29 Jan | D | Dep. Upala. |
0:0 |
Grecia. |
| 25 Jan | D | Dep. Upala. |
1:1 |
Inter S. |
Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Inter San | 16 | 31-13 | 37 |
| 2 |
ADR Jicaral | 16 | 35-15 | 30 |
| 3 |
AD Sarchí | 16 | 28-17 | 30 |
| 4 |
Quepos Cambute | 16 | 47-30 | 27 |
| 5 |
Municipal | 16 | 37-37 | 24 |
| 6 |
Deportivo | 16 | 38-39 | 18 |
| 7 |
AD Carmelita | 16 | 22-30 | 17 |
| 8 |
AD Cofutpa | 16 | 19-36 | 10 |
| 9 |
San Carlos FC | 16 | 26-66 | 6 |
