Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Spain
Preview
The Castellon vs La Coruna prediction for Sunday, 2026-02-15 (kickoff 20:00 GMT) feels like the kind of Segunda División night where every tackle sounds louder and every point counts twice. Round 26 brings the league’s pace-setters to SkyFi Castalia: Castellón sitting 1st/2nd, with Deportivo La Coruña in 3rd and close enough to smell the automatic promotion places.
Castellón arrive with the confidence of a team that just enjoyed itself far too much in Valladolid: an emphatic 4-0 away win on February 8 that pushed them right to the top end of the table. Even more important for bettors who love patterns, the Albinegros have quietly put together five straight league clean sheets. When a side is scoring freely and still locking the door, the market starts to get nervous.
Deportivo, though, are not traveling for photos. Depor have kept momentum with a 2-1 win over Albacete and a gritty 1-0 away result at Cultural Leonesa. Their away record has been the division’s best, which is usually a polite way of saying: “We don’t mind if you have the ball, we’ll take the points.”
Castellón under Pablo Hernández have leaned into a 5.5-3-1 with high pressure and quick rotations. Hernández has openly credited Marcelo Bielsa as an influence, and you can see it in the intensity: the first pass after losing the ball is often a sprint, not a shrug.
Deportivo boss Antonio Hidalgo typically prefers a 5-5.5 (or a disciplined back five) that keeps matches tight and invites opponents into wide areas. The plan is simple: absorb pressure, then break at speed through Yeremay Hernández and the runners around him. It is not always pretty, but it is often profitable.
On the injury front, Castellón remain without Douglas Aurelio (meniscus, expected mid-April). Also worth tracking for discipline bettors: Salva Ruiz and Diego Barri are one booking away from suspension. Deportivo’s squad is mostly healthy, with Lucas Noubi and Luismi Cruz monitored for minor issues.
The head to head has been lively. Their most recent recorded H2H on 2025.53-17 finished 2-2 (Castellón had 2.2 to win, Depor 3.11). There’s also recent context suggesting Castellón have had a statement win in the series since then, which fits the broader theme: these teams rarely give each other a quiet night.
For match-day sports betting, the standard 1X2 betting odds read: Home win 1.73, Draw 3.85, Away win 5.5. That pricing respects Depor’s away strength, but still leans toward Castellón’s home control and defensive streak.
Those calls match the projected match script. Castellón are expected to hold about 57% possession to Depor’s 43%, with shots forecast at 15.50 and on-target efforts at 5.5. That’s advantage Castellón, but not necessarily a goal-fest. The model also projects 9 total corners (6-3) and a card profile of 2 yellows for the hosts and 3 for the visitors—consistent with Depor spending longer in defensive phases.
The fun irony for bettors: Deportivo’s squad value (€53.850m) dwarfs Castellón’s (€17.20m), but the market and the Castellon vs La Coruna prediction both still lean home. If Castellón’s press pins Depor back and Calatrava finds pockets behind the midfield line, a narrow win is very live. If Depor’s back five holds, the under 3.5 still looks like the sensible umbrella bet.
Final thought for responsible sports betting: if you want one simple angle that fits form, tactics, and numbers, under 3.5 goals is the cleanest match between data and reality—and yes, it is the rare “boring” bet that can still be smart.
Read More
Castellon has an unusually high recent form
U3.5 -238
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -2381 -137
Castellon is expected to win with odds of -137Under 3.5 -238
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the matchNo 102
At least one team is not expected to score1X&U4.5 -222
Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1:0
1:0
|
|
2
-
1
-
4
|
|
 Deportivo |
07-Dec-25
1:3
| Castellon  |
| Castellon |
17-Mar-25
2:2
| Deportivo |
| Deportivo |
19-Dec-24
5:1
| Castellon |
| Castellon |
02-Jun-24
2:4
| Deportivo |
| Deportivo |
29-May-24
2:1
| Castellon |
| Castellon |
11-Jun-23
4:3
| Deportivo |
| Deportivo |
04-Jun-23
1:0
| Castellon |
Recent Matches of Castellon| 08 Feb | W |
Valladolid.
|
0:4
| Castellon.
|
| 01 Feb | W |
Castellon.
|
2:0
| Andorra.
|
| 25 Jan | D |
Zaragoza.
|
0:0
| Castellon.
|
| 16 Jan | W |
Castellon.
|
2:0
| Leganes.
|
| 11 Jan | D |
Granada CF.
|
0:0
| Castellon.
|
| 03 Jan | W |
Castellon.
|
4:1
| Huesca.
|
| 21 Dec | L |
Cadiz CF.
|
2:0
| Castellon.
|
| 15 Dec | W |
Castellon.
|
3:1
| Mirandes.
|
| 07 Dec | W |
Deportivo.
|
1:3
| Castellon.
|
| 30 Nov | W |
Castellon.
|
1:0
| Las Palmas.
|
Recent Matches of Deportivo
| 08 Feb | W | Deportivo. |
2:1 |
Albacete. |
| 31 Jan | W |  Cultural . |
0:1 |
Deportivo. |
| 25 Jan | L | Deportivo. |
0:1 |
Racing S. |
| 17 Jan | W |  Almeria. |
1:2 |
Deportivo. |
| 13 Jan | L | Deportivo. |
0:1 |
Atl. Madri. |
| 10 Jan | D |  Las Palmas. |
1:1 |
Deportivo. |
| 04 Jan | D | Deportivo. |
2:2 |
Cadiz CF. |
| 20 Dec | L |  Andorra. |
1:0 |
Deportivo. |
| 16 Dec | W | Deportivo. |
1:0 |
Mallorca. |
| 13 Dec | L | Deportivo. |
0:3 |
Real II. |
Spain - Segunda División| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Racing | 25 | 51-33 | 47 |
| 2 |
Castellón | 25 | 42-25 | 45 |
| 3 |
Deportivo La | 25 | 40-27 | 43 |
| 4 |
Almeria | 25 | 47-36 | 42 |
| 5 |
Malaga | 25 | 38-29 | 41 |
| 6 |
Las Palmas | 25 | 29-20 | 40 |
| 7 |
Burgos | 25 | 28-24 | 39 |
| 8 |
Sporting Gijon | 25 | 35-33 | 39 |
| 9 |
Cordoba | 24 | 32-27 | 38 |
| 10 |
AD Ceuta FC | 24 | 30-34 | 35 |
| 11 |
Cadiz | 25 | 27-29 | 34 |
| 12 |
Albacete | 25 | 31-36 | 33 |
| 13 |
Leganes | 25 | 27-25 | 32 |
| 14 |
Eibar | 25 | 26-27 | 32 |
| 15 |
Granada CF | 25 | 26-29 | 29 |
| 16 |
FC Andorra | 25 | 27-35 | 29 |
| 17 |
Real Sociedad | 25 | 32-35 | 28 |
| 18 |
Valladolid | 25 | 25-31 | 28 |
| 19 |
Huesca | 25 | 23-34 | 27 |
| 20 |
Cultural | 25 | 26-40 | 25 |
| 21 |
Zaragoza | 25 | 22-38 | 23 |
| 22 |
Mirandes | 25 | 25-42 | 20 |
