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Match Prediction

Charlton vs Derby Prediction

Finished

Charlton

€27.60m

20 Jan14:45
1 : 2

Derby

€51.53m

Preview

Charlton vs Derby Prediction Championship

Charlton vs Derby Prediction: Odds, Tips, and Match Analysis

Football fans have their eyes on The Valley this Tuesday night for a fixture that promises both tension and tactical intrigue. Our Charlton vs Derby prediction dives into the heart of the action, with a look at recent form, head to head stats, betting odds, and the latest team news. As the Championship season grinds on, both Charlton Athletic and Derby County are searching for momentum—and punters are searching for that perfect tip.

Charlton vs Derby: Team News, Tactics, and Recent Form

Charlton Athletic, currently sitting 19th in the Championship table, have been struggling to find their rhythm. With just 29 points from 25 matches, the Addicks have managed only one win in their last six league outings. Their recent results tell a story of a team fighting to stay clear of the relegation zone, with zero wins, two draws, and three defeats in their last five across all competitions. New faces have arrived in January—defender Harry Clarke and striker Lyndon Dykes—offering hope for a spark, while the return of Kayne Ramsay and Matty Godden from injury brings much-needed depth. However, ongoing doubts over Joe Edwards, Onel Hernandez, Amari'i Bell, and Tyreece Campbell leave manager and fans alike nervously checking the team sheet.

Derby County, meanwhile, are perched six places higher in 13th, with 35 points from 26 games. Their form is nothing to write home about—one win, one draw, and three defeats in their last five—but it’s a shade better than Charlton’s. The Rams have been hit by the absence of their top scorer, Carlton Morris (10 goals), sidelined until February with an ankle/knee injury. The return of David Ozoh to midfield is a boost, but Derby will need to find goals from elsewhere. Their last six Championship games read two wins, two draws, and two losses—a mixed bag, but enough to keep them in mid-table comfort, for now.

Head to Head and Market Value

  • Head to head encounters between Charlton and Derby have been tight affairs. In their last five meetings, both sides have won twice, with one draw. Their most recent match ended 1-1, showing just how evenly matched these teams can be.
  • Charlton’s squad is valued at €27.60m, while Derby’s is almost double at €51.53m—a gap that reflects both ambition and recent investment.

Recent Surprises and Betting Context

  • Charlton recently managed a gutsy 1-1 draw away at Birmingham, defying long odds of 6.0 for a win.
  • Derby pulled off their own surprise by holding Ipswich to a 2-2 draw on the road, with pre-match win odds as high as 6.8.
  • In their last head to head, Derby edged Charlton 1-0, with the Rams favored at 1.95 odds.

Charlton vs Derby Prediction: Betting Odds, Tips, and AI Insights

Now, let’s get to the meat of the Charlton vs Derby prediction: what do the stats, tips, and betting odds tell us about this match?

  • Betting odds currently sit at 2.7 for a home win, 2.75 for a draw, and 2.755 for an away win. The bookies see this one as too close to call, with a slight nod to Charlton’s home advantage.
  • NerdyTips’ best tip is X2 (Derby win or draw) at odds of 1.5, with a trust level of 3.8/10. It’s a cautious call, but given Derby’s slightly better form and higher squad value, it’s a logical one.
  • Our AI’s 1x2 prediction is for an away win (2), with a confidence level of 2.7 out of 10 and odds of 2.755. Not a ringing endorsement, but enough to tempt value hunters.
  • For the under/over market, under 2.5 goals is the AI’s pick (odds 1.54, trust score 1.7/10), pointing to a tight, low-scoring contest.

Predicted Stats and Final Score

  1. Possession: Charlton 52%, Derby 48%—expect a balanced midfield battle.
  2. Shots: Both teams predicted to have 12 attempts, with 3 on target each—neither side likely to dominate in attack.
  3. Corners: Charlton 7, Derby 6—set pieces could be key, but don’t expect a flurry of goals.
  4. Cards: 2 yellows for Charlton, 1 for Derby—discipline shouldn’t be a major issue.
  5. Final score prediction: 0-1 to Derby, with a goalless first half (0-0 at HT).

Charlton vs Derby Prediction: Verdict and Best Bets

So, what’s the best way to approach this Charlton vs Derby prediction for sports betting fans? With both teams struggling for consistency, injuries impacting key players, and recent head to head history suggesting tight matches, the smart money is on a low-scoring, hard-fought affair. Our AI leans towards an away win, but with modest confidence—so the X2 double chance at 1.5 odds looks the safest play. If you fancy a bit more risk, the outright away win at 2.755 offers value, especially given Derby’s slightly better league position and squad depth.

For those who like to keep it simple, under 2.5 goals is a strong contender, as both teams have struggled in front of goal and are likely to prioritize defensive solidity. Expect a tactical battle, a few nervous moments, and perhaps a single goal to settle it—just don’t expect a goal fest at The Valley.

To sum up: our Charlton vs Derby prediction is a narrow Derby win, with a recommended bet on X2 or under 2.5 goals. As always, keep an eye on the team news before kick-off—this is the Championship, after all, and surprises are never far away.

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Charlton vs Derby

X2 -200

Derby to win or draw with odds of -200
3/10

1x2 Tip

2 205

Derby is expected to win with odds of 205
2/10

Total Goals

Under 2.5 -175

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match
1/10

Both Teams To Score

No -128

At least one team is not expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

X2&U4.5 -154

Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
2/10
Both Teams To Score

Half-Time Score

0:0

Correct Score

0:1

Stats Predictions

1.04
xG
0.97
52%
Ball Possession
48%
12
Total Shots
12
3
Shots on Goal
3
4
Shots Off Goal
4
7
Corners
6
2
Yellow Cards
1

Average / Match

0.85
Expected Goals
1.01
2.7
Total Goals
2.5
1
Goals Scored
1.2
1.7
Goals Against
1.3
41%
Possession
47%
10.4
Total Shots
11.7
3
Shots on Goal
4
3.9
Shots off Goal
4
13.8
Fouls
10.9
5.9
Corners
6
2.4
Offsides
1.4
2.75
Yellow Cards
1.88
305
Total Passes
346

Overview Last 10 Matches

2
Wins
3
7
Over 1.5 Goals
8
5
Over 2.5 Goals
5
3
Over 3.5 Goals
2
7
Both Teams Scored
7
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Charlton
4 - 3 - 9
Derby
Derby Derby 30-Sep-25
1:1
Charlton Charlton
Derby Derby 27-Feb-24
1:2
Charlton Charlton
Charlton Charlton 03-Feb-24
0:1
Derby Derby
Derby Derby 18-Feb-23
2:0
Charlton Charlton
Charlton Charlton 06-Aug-22
1:0
Derby Derby
Derby Derby 30-Dec-19
2:1
Charlton Charlton
Charlton Charlton 19-Oct-19
3:0
Derby Derby
Charlton Charlton 16-Apr-16
0:1
Derby Derby
Derby Derby 15-Aug-15
1:1
Charlton Charlton
Derby Derby 24-Feb-15
2:0
Charlton Charlton

Profile time Recent Matches of Charlton

31 Jan Leicester Leicester.
-
Charlton. Charlton
24 JanL Millwall Millwall.
4:0
Charlton. Charlton
20 JanL Charlton Charlton.
1:2
Derby. Derby
17 JanW Charlton Charlton.
1:0
Sheffield Ut. Sheffield Utd
10 JanL Charlton Charlton.
1:5
Chelsea. Chelsea
04 JanD Blackburn Blackburn.
2:2
Charlton. Charlton
01 JanD Charlton Charlton.
1:1
Coventry. Coventry
29 DecL Portsmouth Portsmouth.
2:1
Charlton. Charlton
26 DecL Norwich Norwich.
1:0
Charlton. Charlton
20 DecW Charlton Charlton.
1:0
Oxford Utd. Oxford Utd

Profile time Recent Matches of Derby

30 JanBristol City Bristol City.
-
Derby.Derby
23 JanDDerby Derby.
1:1
West Brom.West Brom
20 JanWCharlton Charlton.
1:2
Derby.Derby
17 JanWPreston Preston.
0:1
Derby.Derby
11 JanLDerby Derby.
1:3
Leeds.Leeds
04 JanLDerby Derby.
1:2
Wrexham.Wrexham
01 JanWDerby Derby.
1:0
Middlesbroug.Middlesbrough
29 DecLLeicester Leicester.
2:1
Derby.Derby
26 DecDBirmingham Birmingham.
1:1
Derby.Derby
20 DecDDerby Derby.
1:1
Portsmouth.Portsmouth

England - Championship England - Championship

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Coventry Coventry29
62-33
58
2 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough29
46-29
55
3 Ipswich Ipswich28
48-27
50
4 Hull City Hull City28
47-40
50
5 Millwall Millwall29
36-35
49
6 Wrexham Wrexham29
43-37
44
7 Bristol City Bristol City29
40-31
43
8 Watford Watford28
39-33
43
9 Preston Preston29
36-33
43
10 Stoke City Stoke City29
34-26
42
11 Derby Derby29
39-37
42
12 QPR QPR29
40-42
40
13 Birmingham Birmingham29
39-38
39
14 Leicester Leicester29
40-43
38
15 Southampton Southampton29
41-41
37
16 Swansea Swansea29
32-37
36
17 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd28
39-41
35
18 Norwich Norwich29
37-41
33
19 Charlton Charlton28
27-38
32
20 West Brom West Brom29
32-44
32
21 Portsmouth Portsmouth27
24-37
30
22 Blackburn Blackburn28
26-37
29
23 Oxford United Oxford United28
27-36
27
24 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield28
18-56
-7
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