Cherno More vs Spartak Varna Prediction

Cherno More vs Spartak Varna prediction for a tense Varna Derby

The Varna Derby returns on 2026-02-07 at 10:30 GMT, with Cherno More hosting Spartak Varna at Ticha Stadium. This Cherno More vs Spartak Varna prediction is shaped by two very different seasons so far: the Sailors pushing near the top, and the Falcons trying to stop the slide. In derbies, logic always gets tested—but it still matters who arrives with structure, form, and a plan that fits the moment.

Match context: pressure, pride, and a table that tells a story

Cherno More come into Round 20 in a strong position, sitting 4th with 33 points. At home, they have looked like a team that knows how to turn small advantages into results, with four wins in their last home fixtures at Ticha. Spartak, on the other hand, are 12th with 17 points and have struggled to put together a clean run—especially lately, with no wins in their last five league games.

• Cherno More (home): Strong home trend, steady league form, but a reminder in January’s friendly loss (0-1 vs Dobrudzha) that intensity must be maintained.
• Spartak Varna (away): Inconsistent results, and a notable habit of sharing points—around 50% of their away matches end in draws this season.

Tactical setup: why this derby may start cagey

Ilian Iliev’s Cherno More are usually at their best when the rhythm is high and the opponent is forced to defend facing their own goal. Expect a disciplined base—often a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3—with the ball moved quickly through midfield. The creativity of Vasil Panayotov and the running power out wide (including Nikolay Zlatev) give them the tools to stretch Spartak’s shape and win territory.

Spartak, under Gjoko Hadzievski, have often looked more comfortable without the ball. Given their recent issues in front of goal, a lower block and counter-attacks make sense—especially if they want to exploit any space behind Cherno More’s higher line. The game script points to a cautious start: Spartak trying to frustrate, Cherno More trying to avoid derby chaos and keep control.

Team news, risks, and winter changes that matter

Derbies are also about who is available—and who is one moment away from trouble.

• Cherno More injuries: Goalkeeper Plamen Iliev has been managing a fractured finger. Defenders Tsvetomir Panov and Dani Martín are also sidelined.
• Cherno More suspension watch: Vlatko Drobarov and Nikolay Zlatev are one yellow card from a ban—something that can affect how aggressively they defend.
• Spartak injuries: Lucas Magdjinski is a major doubt with a knee problem and has reportedly chosen conservative treatment. Deyan Lozev is also recovering. Ilker Budinov may return after a shoulder injury.
• Spartak suspension watch: Goalkeeper Maksym Kovalyov and centre-back Mateo Juric-Petrasilo are one booking away from suspension.

Off the pitch, Spartak’s winter has been busy: they appointed Plamen Getov as sporting director and reportedly want a free-agent striker to raise the level of competition up front. Cherno More’s winter story is quieter, although the unexpected retirement announcement of Kristiyan Evdokiev did raise eyebrows. Continuity still favors the home side—Ilian Iliev’s long-term structure is usually worth points in matches like these.

Derby history and head to head notes

This rivalry doesn’t need marketing. It already has heat, history, and a deep local edge. Across their long series of meetings, Cherno More have generally had the better of the head to head, and the derby has produced both tight draws and one-sided days. The record win many still remember is Cherno More’s 5-0 in 2008—proof that emotions sometimes turn into goals fast.

• Most recent H2H (2025-03-08): 1-1 draw (Cherno More and Spartak traded goals).
• Notable recent meeting (August 2025): Cherno More won 3-1 away at Spartak Stadium (a result that still lingers).
• Big upset vibes: Cherno More drew 0-0 away at CSKA Sofia in 2025 (priced around 5.5), and Spartak drew 1-1 away at Ludogorets in 2025 (huge price around 17.0). Both teams have shown they can “survive” tough trips.

Our Cherno More vs Spartak Varna prediction and betting tips

The market comes in with Cherno More as the clear favorite, and the numbers match the story: stronger home form, better table position, and a tactical identity that tends to travel well inside a stadium like Ticha. Our Cherno More vs Spartak Varna Prediction therefore leans toward the home win, with a relatively controlled scoreline.

1X2 odds and best bet

Here are the main match odds:

• Home win: 1.48
• Draw: 4.15
• Away win: 7.1

NerdyTips’ AI best wager is 1 (Cherno More to win), rated 10.0/10 confidence, offered at 1.48. That price is close to the market’s 1.48, and the high trust score suggests the model sees a consistent gap between these teams—especially in this home/away context.

Goals market: why under 3.5 fits the derby script

Derbies often start with tension rather than fireworks, and the tactical expectations point that way too: Spartak likely sit deep, Cherno More probe patiently, and the first half may be more about control than risk.

• Under 3.5 goals: 1.29 odds, 5.3 confidence

The confidence is moderate, not extreme—because derbies can swing quickly on one mistake or one set piece. Still, with Spartak’s recent struggles to win (and often to score freely), under 3.5 aligns with a “professional” Cherno More performance rather than a wild shootout.

Projected match flow (stats-based)

The model expects Cherno More to dictate the rhythm, with Spartak spending long periods defending and waiting for counters.

• Possession: Cherno More 60% / Spartak 40%
• Total shots: Cherno More 13 / Spartak 4
• Shots on target: Cherno More 5 / Spartak 1
• Corners: Cherno More 6 / Spartak 3 (total 9)
• Yellow cards: Cherno More 1 / Spartak 2

Those numbers describe a familiar derby pattern: the favorite pushes the play, the underdog defends in waves, and discipline becomes important—especially with suspension risks on both sides.

Correct score and half-time angle

AI correct score prediction: 2-0 Cherno More. The expected half-time score is 0-0, which fits the idea of a cautious opening before the game opens up after the break. If Spartak’s legs fade or they concede first, the plan to sit deep can quickly become a plan to simply survive.

Final betting tips summary

• Main pick: Cherno More to win (1) — AI trust 10.0/10 at 1.48
• Goals lean: Under 3.5 goals at 1.29
• Correct score idea: 2-0, with a likely cautious first half (0-0 HT)

In short: this Cherno More vs Spartak Varna prediction backs the home side to do what strong teams do in derbies—keep their head, win the key moments, and let the stadium do the rest.