Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Henan Jianye

Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Henan Jianye Prediction: A Tale of Two Seasons

When you look at the Chinese Super League table in early May 2026, it is hard to believe that Chongqing Tongliang Long and Henan Jianye are playing in the same division. The home side sits proudly in second place, while the visitors are fighting near the bottom. This Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Henan Jianye prediction is not just about numbers — it is about two very different stories unfolding this season. The match kicks off on May 5, 2026, at 13:00 GMT at the Chongqing Longxing Football Stadium, and the atmosphere promises to be special.

Why Chongqing Tongliang Long Are Flying High

The newly promoted team has been the surprise package of the 2026 CSL campaign. After eight matches, they remain unbeaten with five wins and three draws. Their defensive record is impressive — only six goals conceded — and they have scored 12 times. Head coach Liu Jianye, a former Chinese international, has built a system that works. He usually sets up in a 5-4-1 or 3-4-3 formation, relying on a disciplined low block and quick counter-attacks. The Romanian attacking midfielder Alexandru Cîmpanu is the creative spark, with two goals and two assists already. Chunxin Chen leads the scoring charts with three goals. The home fans will be loud, as the Yuzhou Twelve Guards supporter group celebrates its 10th anniversary. What started as 30 people in 2015 has grown to over 3,500 registered members, creating a real fortress atmosphere.

Henan Jianye's Difficult Path

Henan Jianye, often called Henan FC, started the season with a six-point deduction from the Chinese Football Association for violations related to improper transactions. That punishment has made their job much harder. After eight games, they have two wins, two draws, and four losses, scoring six and conceding ten. Their recent form is worrying — a 3-0 home defeat to Shanghai Shenhua on April 26 showed their defensive weaknesses. Portuguese head coach Daniel Ramos, appointed in April 2025, has struggled to find attacking rhythm. He will likely set his team to absorb pressure and look for set-piece opportunities. But morale is low after that heavy loss.

Head to Head and Recent Meetings

The most recent head to head match between these sides took place on May 21, 2025. On that day, Chongqing Tongliang Long scored once, but Henan Jianye found the net twice to win 2-1. The betting odds for that game were 3.64 for a home win and 1.8 for an away win. Since then, both teams have changed. Chongqing Tongliang Long beat Hangzhou Greentown 1-0 away on April 5, 2026, with odds of 7.7 in their favor. Henan Jianye also pulled off an unexpected away win on October 31, 2025, beating Chengdu Better City 2-1, again with odds of 7.7. These results show that both sides can surprise, but current form heavily favors the home team.

AI Predictions and Betting Odds Analysis

Our AI system has analyzed all available data for this Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Henan Jianye prediction. The betting odds are tight: home win at 2.67, draw at 3.1, and away win at 2.72. This suggests the bookmakers see a close contest, but our models disagree. The AI picks 1X — meaning the home team will win or draw — as the best tip, with a trust score of 8.5 out of 10 and odds of 1.47. For the 1x2 market, the prediction favors a home win (1) with a trust score of 7.8 and odds of 2.67. The expected final score is 2:1, with a halftime score of 1:1.

Under/Over Goals and Possession Insights

For the under/over market, NerdyTips' AI suggests under 3.5 goals, with a trust score of 5.9 and odds of 1.26. This makes sense given that Chongqing Tongliang Long have conceded only six goals all season, while Henan Jianye have scored just six. The expected possession is close: 51% for the home team and 49% for the away team. Total shots are predicted at 8 for Chongqing and 9 for Henan, with on-target shots at 3 and 2 respectively. Corners are expected to be 4 for the home side and 5 for the visitors, totaling nine. Yellow cards are predicted at one each, suggesting a competitive but not overly aggressive match.

Squad Values and Key Factors

The home team's squad is valued at €7.34 million, while Henan Jianye's squad is worth €6.90 million. That small difference in value does not explain the gap in the table. The real difference is form, confidence, and the six-point deduction that has hurt Henan. Chongqing Tongliang Long are unbeaten, playing with freedom, and have a passionate home crowd behind them. Henan Jianye are struggling to find consistency and have lost morale after recent defeats. For sports betting enthusiasts, the value seems to be on the home side not losing, especially with the 1X option at 1.47 odds.

Final Thoughts on the Match

This Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Henan Jianye prediction points to a home win or draw as the most likely outcome. The AI trust score of 8.5 out of 10 is high, reflecting confidence in the analysis. The expected score of 2:1 suggests a tight game where Chongqing's counter-attacking style could prove decisive. Henan Jianye will fight, but their defensive issues and low morale make it hard to see them taking all three points. For casual fans, expect an entertaining match with goals. For serious bettors, the 1X market at 1.47 offers solid value. The under 3.5 goals tip at 1.26 also looks reasonable given both teams' recent scoring patterns. Whatever happens, the Chongqing Longxing Football Stadium will be rocking on May 5.