Crystal Palace vs Burnley Prediction

Crystal Palace vs Burnley prediction: Selhurst Park night tips

The Crystal Palace vs Burnley prediction for Wednesday, 11 February 2026, feels like one of those winter fixtures where points matter more than style. Kick-off is set for 19:30 GMT at Selhurst Park, and while neither side will call this a “season-defining” game out loud, the table pressure says it for them.

Palace arrive with a rare bit of oxygen. They sit 13th on 32 points and, crucially, they finally snapped a long winless run with a hard-earned 1–0 win over Brighton on 8 February. Ismaïla Sarr got the goal, and the assist came from debutant Evann Guessand, which is the sort of feel-good detail that can lift a dressing room for a week or two. Burnley, on the other hand, are 19th on 15 points and stuck in a grim stretch without a league win. Recent losses to Sunderland (3–0) and West Ham (2–0) have only increased the heat around Scott Parker.

Team news, tactics, and the mood around both camps

Oliver Glasner’s Palace have had to evolve. With Europe on the calendar this season after their 2025 FA Cup win, rotation and game management have become more than buzzwords. Glasner has also confirmed he is leaving at the end of the campaign, which adds a strange “last tour” edge to every home match. Tactically, Palace have leaned into a sturdier defensive base recently, then tried to break with pace—Sarr is central to that plan, and January’s big-money arrivals give Palace more punch in transition.

• Jean-Philippe Mateta is out after a knee issue was flagged in January, and the situation may even require surgery.
• Eddie Nketiah remains sidelined with a thigh injury, with March mentioned as a realistic return window.
• Cheick Doucouré is still a long-term miss with a serious knee injury.
• Adam Wharton is back from suspension, while Daichi Kamada has returned to full fitness.

Those absences matter, but the January window was a statement: Palace broke their record twice with Jørgen Strand Larsen and Brennan Johnson expected to play big roles. It also marks an early chapter of life after Marc Guéhi, now at Manchester City, so organisation at the back remains under the microscope.

Burnley’s problems are more structural. Parker has talked about needing more character and simpler defending, and you can see why: the margins have not been kind, and confidence looks fragile. Injuries have not helped, with key options missing across the spine of the team. The brighter note is that James Ward-Prowse is available after arriving on loan, and his set-piece quality is one of the few things that can travel well even when form does not.

• Josh Cullen is out for the season with an ACL injury.
• Zeki Amdouni and Jordan Beyer remain unavailable.
• Connor Roberts and Mike Trésor are also long-term absentees.

In head to head terms, Palace have had the upper hand lately. The last meeting on 24 February 2024 ended 3–0 to Palace, and Burnley have struggled to turn this fixture in their favour across recent attempts. Still, both teams have shown they can spring surprises: Palace drew 1–1 away at Arsenal in December, while Burnley managed the same scoreline at Liverpool in January. Football remains wonderfully disrespectful to expectations.

Crystal Palace vs Burnley Prediction and AI betting tips

Now for the NerdyTips numbers. The market has Palace as clear favourites: Home win 1.622, Draw 4.2, Away win 6.1. The gap matches the bigger picture too—Palace’s squad value sits around €536.10m compared to Burnley’s €251.6225m, and that quality difference often shows up late in games.

What our model expects to happen

• Standout pick (1X2): Home win with confidence 4.6/10 (AI 1X2: 4.7) at odds 1.622
• Goals betting tips: Under 3.5 goals, trust level 2.8/10 at odds 1.34
• Correct score lean: 2–0, with a half-time prediction of 1–0

The match script behind this Crystal Palace vs Burnley prediction is fairly clear: Palace to control more of the ball (projected 57% possession), push Burnley back, and avoid turning it into a track meet. The shot forecast supports that idea—Palace 12 total shots to Burnley’s 8, and a big gap in shots on target (4 to 1). If Burnley do not create more clear looks than that, they may need Ward-Prowse to deliver a perfect free kick… and maybe a friendly gust of London wind.

Extra stats to watch

• Corners: Palace 6, Burnley 3 (9 total)
• Cards: Palace 1, Burnley 2

So, our best read is a controlled Palace win rather than a goal rush. If you’re shopping for simple betting tips, the home win is the headline, while under 3.5 goals fits a game where Palace manage risk and Burnley focus on staying alive first. That’s the kind of night Selhurst Park can enjoy—loud, tense, and preferably decided before the final whistle turns into a cardio session.