CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia Prediction

CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia prediction for a tense Sofia derby

Our CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia prediction gets an extra layer of spice on February 14, 2026 (12:45 GMT), because this is not just another Parva Liga game — it is the “two CSKAs” story that never really ends. With Round 21 played at the compact Stadion Vitosha in Bistritsa, the setting again feels like a pressure cooker where one early mistake can change everything.

Context, form, and why this match feels personal

CSKA 1948 arrive as the table’s more stable force, sitting 2nd on 40 points and coming from a 1–0 win over Montana on February 6. Under Ivan Stoyanov, appointed in April 2025, they have leaned into a controlled, possession-first approach that often looks calm… right until the opponent tries to breathe. CSKA Sofia, 5th with 34 points, look sharper in open-field moments, boosted by a 3.15 win against Arda Kardzhali on February 6 and guided by Hristo Yanev’s pressing and fast transitions.

There is also the awkward timing factor: the teams met on February 10 in a Bulgarian Cup quarter-final, meaning this league match comes with fresh memories, small knocks, and the kind of tactical déjà vu that makes coaches overthink their coffee.

Team news and tactical angles to watch

• CSKA 1948 absences and discipline: goalkeeper Petar Marinov remains out, while wingers Frédéric Maciel and Georgi Rusev hover near suspension risk on four yellows.
• CSKA Sofia injuries: Léo and Alejandro Piedrahita are dealing with calf issues, and Isaac Solet is still working back from a long-term cruciate ligament injury.
• Key threat: striker Leandro Godoy remains CSKA Sofia’s main reference point, especially when transitions get messy.

The “identity” angle is never far away either. CSKA 1948’s fan-born roots (2016) and CSKA Sofia’s claim to the historical symbols keep the rivalry loud, even when the football tries to speak for itself. Recent head to head results add fuel: CSKA Sofia won 3.15 on 2024-11-07, but CSKA 1948 shocked them away on 2025-08-24, winning 0–1 at big odds.

Betting odds, AI reads, and what the numbers suggest

The market sees this as tight: home win 3.15, draw 3.25, away win 2.48. That fits the squad values too (€16.70m vs €20.90m), with CSKA Sofia slightly ahead but not by a mile.

NerdyTips’ CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia prediction leans into a cautious match script. The most profitable angle is Under 3.5 total goals at 1.26, with a 4.9/10 trust rating — basically, don’t expect a goal festival. The 1x2 pick favors the away win (2) at 2.48, though with lower confidence (2.4), so it’s more “lean” than “lock.”

• Projected score: 0:2, with a half-time read of 0:1.
• Game flow: 49% vs 51% possession suggests a fine balance, but shots favor CSKA Sofia (6 vs 12), including 2 vs 4 on target.
• Match texture: 9 total corners (4–5) and 4 yellow cards (2–2) hint at intensity without chaos.

If those shot numbers hold, the away side simply creates more ways to win. And in a derby where emotions run high, the funniest thing is often the simplest: fewer goals, more tension, and someone celebrating like they just won the league in February.