CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia Prediction

CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia prediction for the Small Capital Derby

The CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia prediction for February 21, 2026 (15:30 GMT) comes with extra edge because this is the “Small Capital Derby” and it lands at Vasil Levski National Stadium, where CSKA are still hosting games during the Balgarska Armiya rebuild. Round 22 matters: CSKA are chasing Europe from 4th, while Slavia are trying to squeeze into the top-six group.

Story so far: form, pressure, and a derby that bites

CSKA arrive in strong shape and the table backs it up. They sit 4th on 37 points and have won four of their last five league games, which is usually the kind of run that makes a stadium feel smaller for the away side. Under Hristo Yanev (in charge since September 2025), the “Army Men” have looked more direct and more daring, and they have averaged around 1.9 goals per home match at Vasil Levski.

Slavia, 7th on 28 points, have lived a more uneven season. Their recent sequence has been mixed and included a 2-1 loss to Arda Kardzhali, so the need for points is real. The good news for the “Whites” is that they do not panic as underdogs—just ask Ludogorets, who were held 1-1 away on 2025-12-08 despite long betting odds for Slavia.

Tactical notes and team news that can shape the game

Yanev’s CSKA usually line up in a proactive 4-2-3-1. Expect them to push the ball wide, feed runners between the lines, and look early for Leandro Godoy, their top scorer with 10 league goals. Ilian Iliev Jr. is key for tempo and final passes, while Lumbardh Dellova has stood out in defense with strong work in the air and calm progression.

• CSKA absences: Isaac Solet (ACL), Léo (calf), Alejandro Piedrahita (calf), David Seger (ankle).
• Suspension watch: Ángelo Martino is one yellow away from a ban.
• Slavia concerns: Kristiyan Stoyanov is out; Lazar Marin is doubtful with knee issues.
• Slavia setup: Ratko Dostanić tends to use a compact 4-1-4-1, with veteran keeper Georgi Petkov as the organizer.

In the recent head to head, Slavia won 1-0 on 2024-08-17 when CSKA were priced around 1.45, reinforcing the “bogey team” feeling: Slavia have taken results in four of the last five meetings. That history adds spice, but it also tends to make CSKA start fast—nobody wants to be reminded of it for another year.

CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia prediction: AI tips and betting angles

Our numbers lean strongly toward the home side. The squads are not priced the same in the market either: CSKA’s team value is about €20.90m versus Slavia’s €6.32m, and that gap often shows over 90 minutes.

• Main tip (1X2): Home win (1) at 1.36–1.36, trust score 9.9/10.
• Over/Under: Over 1.5 total goals at 1.30, confidence 4.7/10.
• Correct score: 2-0 (half-time 1-0).

Why the home win makes sense with the stats

Projected match flow supports the CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia prediction: CSKA are forecast at 68% possession, 18 shots (6 on target), and 7 of the 10 corners. Slavia sit at 32% possession, 6 shots (2 on target). That is the profile of a game where the favorite pins the opponent back and creates enough chances to justify short betting odds—without needing a goal festival. Discipline also points to control: 1 yellow projected for CSKA vs 2 for Slavia, which can matter if Slavia are forced into late defending. If CSKA score first, Slavia’s plan becomes “survive,” and that is rarely a fun long-term hobby.