Saudi-Arabia
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Damac vs Al Ahli SC prediction: goals, grit, and a gap
Our Damac vs Al Ahli SC prediction starts with a simple picture: Abha at night, Monday, February 23, 2026, and two teams walking into the Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium with very different problems. Kick-off is set for 19:00 GMT (22:00 local time). Damac need points like air; Al Ahli need rotation like coffee. That mix often creates a match where one side tries to lock the door, and the other keeps knocking until something breaks.
Story so far: tactics, form, and the people in the plot
Damac (15th) arrive with the nervous energy of a team looking over its shoulder. They did beat Al Taawoun 2-1 on February 12, then lost 2-1 to Al Shabab on February 20—close games, but close doesn’t pay the table bills. The club also changed the voice on the sideline: Fabio Carille came in on February 10, tasked with “stopping the bleeding” after Damac conceded 36 league goals. If you know Carille’s reputation, you know the plan: lines compact, risks controlled, and no nonsense in the middle third.
Al Ahli (3rd, and right up there on points at 53) travel to Abha with the confidence of champions and the schedule of a team that barely has time to unpack. Matthias Jaissle’s side are on a 12-game unbeaten run, they’re the reigning AFC Champions League Elite holders, and they’ve collected 12 clean sheets—the best defensive record in the league. Still, Jaissle has warned that the league “doesn’t respect names or history,” which is manager-speak for: “Please recover quickly, because we’re doing this again in three days.”
Key players and team news to watch
This match has a clear headline: Ivan Toney. The Al Ahli striker is leading the league scoring with 22 goals and comes in hot after a hat-trick in the 4-1 win over Al-Najma on Feb 19. Behind him, Riyad Mahrez remains the main artist, and Edouard Mendy is the calm end of the rope when games get messy.
- Al Ahli absence: Merih Demiral is confirmed out injured.
- Al Ahli return: Ali Majrashi is back after suspension.
- Damac availability: reported close to full strength after Al Shabab.
- Damac threats: Valentin Vada (their top scorer) and Yakou Meite, who recently hit a brace vs Al Taawoun.
- New faces: Jonathan Okita and Nawaf Al Saadi are being integrated after winter business.
Head to head and the “home” factor
The recent head to head story leans Al Ahli. In the last five meetings, Al Ahli have won three and drawn two, and Damac haven’t beaten them in league play since 2021. Their last meeting on 2025.22-21 ended 0-2, with Al Ahli priced at 1.42 and Damac at 5.2—so the market pretty much called it.
And Damac’s home comfort blanket hasn’t been very warm: just one win in their last ten home league matches. Abha’s altitude can annoy visitors, but it doesn’t score goals on its own.
AI match prediction and betting tips (NerdyTips angle)
Now for the numbers that turn the story into a Damac vs Al Ahli SC Prediction you can actually use. The 1X2 odds are blunt: Home 9.5, Draw 5.2, Away 1.38. That gap matches squad value too—Damac at €12.55m versus Al Ahli at €170.78m—basically a supermarket trolley vs a delivery truck.
Best betting angles from our models
- Main pick: Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.8), trust score 8.0/10.
- 1X2 pick (NerdyTips AI): Away win “2” (odds 1.38), trust score 5.2.
- Correct score lean: 1.38 full-time, with 0-1 at half-time.
Why over 2.5 fits the script
Carille may want a disciplined block, but the forecast suggests Al Ahli will camp in Damac’s half: 59% possession for the visitors, plus 14 shots and 6 on target (Damac: 9 shots, 2 on target). Add the corner projection—7 for Al Ahli vs 2 for Damac—and you get a match pattern where pressure keeps returning like a boomerang. Even if Damac hold firm early (0-1 at the break is the model’s call), the second-half legs and Al Ahli’s bench options can turn “solid” into “please, not another one.”
Also, Damac have shown they can surprise—like that 1-1 away draw at Al Fayha on 2025.21-17 with odds of 5.2. But surprises usually need low scoring. Against a Toney-led attack, one Damac goal can actually help the over, not hurt it.
Final NerdyTips takeaway: the safest story to bet is goals. Our Damac vs Al Ahli SC prediction backs Over 2.5 (1.8) as the best tip, with Al Ahli still the most likely winner if you want the straight result.
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Warning
Best Tip odd is moving up from 1.6
Best Tip
The best betting football prediction for Damac vs Al Ahli SCO2.5 -125
At least 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -1251x2 Tip
2 -263
Al Ahli SC is expected to win with odds of -263Total Goals
Over 2.5 -125
At least 3 goals will be scored in the matchBoth Teams To Score
Yes 123
Both teams are expected to scoreBet Builder Tip
X2&O2.5 -109
Away win/draw and over 2.5 goalsCorrect Score
1:3
Stats Predictions
Average / Match
Overview Last 10 Matches
Head to Head
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|
3
-
3
-
6
|
|
Latest Matches
 Damac |
23-Feb-26
0:1
| Al Ahli SC  |
| Damac |
21-Feb-25
0:2
| Al Ahli SC |
| Damac |
09-Nov-23
2:2
| Al Ahli SC |
| Damac |
21-Jan-22
1:1
| Al Ahli SC |
| Damac |
05-Dec-20
4:3
| Al Ahli SC |
| Damac |
25-Aug-20
2:1
| Al Ahli SC |
| Al Ahli SC |
04-Apr-26
3:0
| Damac |
| Al Ahli SC |
20-Sep-24
4:2
| Damac |
| Al Ahli SC |
02-May-24
4:1
| Damac |
| Al Ahli SC |
25-Aug-21
1:1
| Damac |
Recent Matches of Damac
| 23 Apr | W |
Damac
| 2 |
Al Okhdood
| 0 |
| 09 Apr | D |
Damac
| 1 |
Al-Qadisiyah
| 1 |
| 04 Apr | L |
Al-Ahli J
| 3 |
Damac
| 0 |
| 12 Mar | W |
Al Najma
| 1 |
Damac
| 3 |
| 05 Mar | W |
Damac
| 3 |
Al Riyadh
| 0 |
| 26 Feb | D |
Al Fateh
| 1 |
Damac
| 1 |
| 23 Feb | L |
Damac
| 0 |
Al Ahli SC
| 1 |
| 20 Feb | L |
Damac
| 1 |
Al Shabab
| 3 |
| 12 Feb | W |
Damac
| 2 |
Al Taawon
| 1 |
| 06 Feb | L |
Al Ettifaq
| 2 |
Damac
| 0 |
Recent Matches Of Al Ahli SC
| 20 Apr | W |  Vissel Kobe |
1 | Al-Ahli J |
2 |
| 17 Apr | W | Al-Ahli J |
2 |  Johor D |
1 |
| 13 Apr | W | Al-Ahli J |
1 |  Al-Duhail SC |
0 |
| 08 Apr | D |  Al-Fayha |
1 | Al-Ahli J |
1 |
| 04 Apr | W | Al-Ahli J |
3 | Damac |
0 |
| 18 Mar | D | Al Ahli SC |
1 |  Al Hilal |
1 |
| 13 Mar | L |  Al Qadisiya |
3 | Al Ahli SC |
2 |
| 06 Mar | W | Al Ahli SC |
3 |  Al Ittihad |
1 |
| 26 Feb | W |  Al Riyadh |
0 | Al Ahli SC |
1 |
| 23 Feb | W | Damac |
0 | Al Ahli SC |
1 |
Saudi-Arabia - Pro League
| Team | M | G | P | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
 Al-Nassr | 29 | 79-21 | 76 |
| 2 |
 Al-Hilal Saudi | 28 | 75-25 | 68 |
| 3 |
Al-Ahli Jeddah | 28 | 55-20 | 66 |
| 4 |
Al-Qadisiyah | 29 | 67-31 | 62 |
| 5 |
Al Taawon | 29 | 52-38 | 49 |
| 6 |
 Al-Ittihad FC | 28 | 45-38 | 45 |
| 7 |
Al-Ettifaq | 29 | 41-50 | 42 |
| 8 |
 NEOM | 29 | 37-41 | 39 |
| 9 |
 Al-Fayha | 29 | 35-45 | 34 |
| 10 |
 Al-Hazm | 28 | 31-48 | 34 |
| 11 |
 Al Khaleej | 27 | 46-46 | 31 |
| 12 |
Al Shabab | 28 | 36-42 | 31 |
| 13 |
 Al Kholood | 29 | 38-57 | 29 |
| 14 |
Al-Fateh | 27 | 34-48 | 28 |
| 15 |
Damac | 29 | 27-46 | 26 |
| 16 |
Al Riyadh | 28 | 29-52 | 23 |
| 17 |
Al Okhdood | 29 | 23-61 | 16 |
| 18 |
Al Najma | 29 | 28-69 | 11 |
