Defensa Y Justicia vs Estudiantes L.P. Prediction

Defensa Y Justicia vs Estudiantes L.P. prediction and tips

Mark the date: 2026-02-02, 22:45 GMT, Estadio Norberto “Tito” Tomaghello. This Defensa Y Justicia vs Estudiantes L.P. prediction lands in Apertura Round 3, after a small but meaningful reschedule to 19:45 local time so fans could follow the local fixture list without overlap. Early season or not, these are the nights when the table starts to feel real.

Context, form, and what to watch before kick-off

Defensa arrive with a squad rebuild still settling. They sit around 10th and the recent sequence has been rough (LLLLD), even if a 0-0 with Aldosivi on January 22 at least stopped the slide. Estudiantes, by contrast, are flying in 2nd place: a 1-1 draw with Independiente (Jan 23) kept them grounded, then they flexed in the Copa Argentina with a 4-0 win over Ituzaingó.

• Venue edge: Tomaghello can feel tight and intense; visiting teams rarely get comfortable.
• Head to head spice: Defensa have long been a “piedra en el zapato” for Estudiantes, and the last H2H on 2025-02.859 ended 1-0 for Defensa.
• Market reality: betting odds still lean away — Home 3.5, Draw 2.85, Away 2.57.

Tactical story: Soso’s wings vs Domínguez’s control

Mariano Soso is trying to restore Defensa’s identity: proactive, aggressive in the middle third, and quick to the wings. Expect a 4-2-3-1 that can morph into a fluid 4-3-3, with Éver Banega and Rubén Botta (both recent free-agent additions) asked to bring order and invention. Up top, Juan Bautista Miritello remains the main reference point.

Eduardo Domínguez’s Estudiantes are built differently: resilient first, efficient second. With Fernando Muslera reportedly injured, the visitors may protect replacement Fabricio Iacovich with a deeper block and fewer risks, often shifting between 4-4-2 and 5-3-2 in tricky away games. Injuries to Santiago Arzamendia and T. Palacios also push Estudiantes toward a more conservative plan, while transfer noise around Edwin Cetré and Santiago Ascacíbar could shape late decisions.

Probable lineups (based on recent use)

• Defensa: Fiermarin; Pereyra, Martinez, Fernandez, Souto; Portillo, Lopez, Sosa; Botta, Gutierrez, Miritello.
• Estudiantes: Iacovich; Benedetti, Gonzalez Pirez, Meza, Mancuso; Medina, Ascacibar (if available), Neves; Perez, Carrillo, Farias.

Sports betting angles: prediction, odds, and AI picks

For sports betting purposes, the numbers point to a tight, tactical game. Our model’s most likely 1X2 is X2 (Estudiantes or draw) at 1.36, confidence 2.0 — consistent with the away win price of 2.57 and the away squad value advantage (€50.30m vs €26.75m). This Defensa Y Justicia vs Estudiantes L.P. prediction also matches the shot forecast: Defensa 8 total shots (2 on target) vs Estudiantes 10 (4 on target), suggesting the visitors create the cleaner chances.

• Best tip (NerdyTips): NG (at least one team will not score) — trust 6.3/10, odds 1.6.
• Goals market: Under 2.5 goals — trust 4.6, odds 1.46.
• Correct score lean: 0:1, with half-time 0:0.

The NG call lines up with the expected tempo: possession is nearly split (51% vs 49%), corners are modest (3-4, total 7), and cards are low (1 for Defensa, 2 for Estudiantes). Add in Defensa’s key injury absence (Cesar Perez, cruciate ligament) and Estudiantes’ likely cautious setup without Muslera, and this reads like a match where one goal could decide everything.

One final note for anyone tracking betting odds and head to head trends: Defensa have shown they can surprise away from home (that 1-1 at Talleres at 5.35 odds), and Estudiantes proved their own ceiling with a 0-2 away win at River (5.15). But in this specific spot, the most sensible path remains: protect your stake, respect the margins, and keep the X2 and NG angles at the top of the slip.