Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Uruguay
Defensor
€14.10m
Cerro
€5.70m
Preview
Welcome to your in-depth Defensor Sporting vs Cerro prediction for the upcoming Primera Division - Apertura fixture at the iconic Estadio Luis Franzini. With Defensor Sporting’s squad boasting an impressive market value of €14.10m compared to Cerro’s €5.70m, this match is more than just a meeting of teams—it’s a test of ambition, strategy, and recent form. As the betting odds stand, Defensor Sporting are clear home favorites at 1.71, a draw is priced at 3.35, and Cerro are the underdogs at 4.75. Let’s break down the numbers, recent results, and head-to-head history to deliver a comprehensive sports betting preview you can trust.
The Primera Division - Apertura is always full of surprises, and this encounter is no exception. Defensor Sporting, playing at home, will look to capitalize on their superior squad value and recent momentum. Cerro, however, have shown they can punch above their weight, making this fixture far from a foregone conclusion.
Sports betting fans will notice the odds have Defensor Sporting at 1.71 to win, reflecting their home advantage and stronger squad. The draw at 3.35 and Cerro at 4.75 indicate that bookmakers see a clear favorite, but not an unbreakable one. These odds mirror the last meeting on 2025-04-14, when Defensor Sporting edged Cerro 3-2 in a dramatic contest—bookies then offered 1.715 for Defensor and 4.75 for Cerro, showing little has changed in the market’s view.
The AI prediction gives a home win (“1”) as the standout bet, with a confidence rating of 6.1/10 and odds of 1.71. A secondary analysis, with a slightly higher confidence of 6.2, also backs Defensor Sporting. This aligns with the head to head record and the recent 3-2 result, suggesting the home side has the edge.
For those eyeing the goals markets, the prediction for over 1.5 goals comes with a confidence of 3.9 and odds of 1.4. This is no surprise when you consider league-wide stats:
The predicted final score is 2:1 in favor of Defensor Sporting, with a halftime score of 1:0. This fits both teams’ recent attacking and defensive trends—Defensor Sporting often start strong at home, while Cerro have shown resilience but sometimes lack firepower on the road.
Looking at the head to head, Defensor Sporting’s narrow 3-2 win over Cerro in April 2025 set the tone for this rivalry. But both teams have shown they can upset the odds:
Draws are a common theme in the league—36.5% of matches end level, and both teams have scored in 44.7% of games. With league averages showing home teams win 36.1% of the time and away teams 27.4%, the draw odds of 3.35 might tempt risk-takers, especially given both teams’ knack for stubborn performances.
To wrap up this Defensor Sporting vs Cerro prediction, here are the key takeaways for your sports betting strategy:
With both teams capable of springing surprises and a history of close encounters, expect an engaging contest at Estadio Luis Franzini. Whether you’re backing the favorites or hunting for value in the draw, this fixture promises excitement for every sports betting fan.
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Derby match
1 -143
Defensor is expected to win with odds of -1431 -143
Defensor is expected to win with odds of -143Over 1.5 -250
At least 2 goals will be scored in the matchYes 110
Both teams are expected to score1X&O1.5 -169
Home win/draw and over 1.5 goals
2:1
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|
13
-
11
-
3
|
|
 Defensor |
14-Apr-25
3:2
| Cerro  |
| Cerro |
07-Sep-24
1:1
| Defensor |
| Defensor |
25-Feb-24
5:0
| Cerro |
| Cerro |
15-Nov-23
1:1
| Defensor |
| Defensor |
08-Apr-23
1:1
| Cerro |
| Defensor |
04-Dec-21
0:1
| Cerro |
| Cerro |
30-Nov-21
1:2
| Defensor |
| Defensor |
23-Sep-21
2:0
| Cerro |
| Cerro |
10-Jun-21
0:0
| Defensor |
| Cerro |
18-Feb-21
0:0
| Defensor |
Recent Matches of Defensor
Recent Matches of Cerro
| 15 Jan |  Racing M. |
- |
CA Cerro. |
Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Penarol | 7 | 15-5 | 16 |
| 2 |
Defensor Sport | 7 | 12-10 | 14 |
| 3 |
Wanderers | 7 | 6-5 | 12 |
| 4 |
Plaza Colonia | 7 | 6-7 | 8 |
| 5 |
Liverpool Mont | 7 | 10-12 | 8 |
| 6 |
Cerro | 7 | 7-9 | 8 |
| 7 |
CA River Plate | 6 | 4-8 | 4 |
| 8 |
Cerro Largo | 6 | 5-9 | 2 |
