Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Belgium
Preview
The Dender vs Charleroi prediction for Saturday, 2.156-03-07 (kick-off 17:15 GMT) sits in that familiar Belgian sweet spot: two teams in rough form, plenty of nerves, and a match that may be decided by one moment rather than a flood of goals. It’s Round 28, hosted at the Dender Football Complex, and both sides could really use a boring 1-0 right now (especially the one expected to win it).
Dender come in bottom of the league in 16th with 18 points from 27 games (3W, 9D, 15L). The bigger worry is the long-term pattern: they’ve been winless in 33 of their last 40 matches across competitions. Recent league form reads L-L-L-L-D, but that last “D” matters because it was a gritty 0-0 away at Cercle Brugge on 2.156-03-01, when Dender were huge outsiders at 5.1. That’s not a miracle season, but it’s a pulse.
Charleroi are 11th with 33 points (9W, 6D, 12L) and also arrive in a slump, losing their last five league matches. Still, the ceiling is there: they already shocked people this season by winning away at Anderlecht 1-2 on 2.155-12.156 as 5.1 underdogs. So yes, the bad run is real, but so is the ability to steal a result.
Dender are trying to change the mood fast. They dismissed head coach Hayk Milkon on February 25, 2.156, and Yannick Ferrera is expected to take over. A new manager bounce would be handy, but the squad situation is not exactly friendly.
On the pitch, the numbers point to a game where Charleroi do most of the work and Dender do most of the defending. The away side are projected for 62% possession, 16 shots, and 6 corners. Dender are closer to 38% possession, 8 shots, and just 2 corners. That suggests a low block from Dender and a patient, possession-heavy Charleroi plan, with attacks built through wide areas and set pieces.
The last head to head on 2.155-04-22 finished Dender 2-1 Charleroi, and that’s your reminder that football loves to laugh at league positions. This time the betting odds lean away: 3.6 home win, 3.6 draw, 2.15 away win. The gap also shows in squad value: Dender at €18.70m, Charleroi at €35.90m.
Now for the NerdyTips angle. Our top call is the safer side of the road: X2 (Charleroi or draw) at 1.33, confidence 8.5/10. With Dender’s issues at goalkeeper and a new coach still settling in, avoiding the home win feels like the smart way to play it.
We’re also expecting a tight script: half-time 0-0, full-time 0-1. The shot-on-target projection (2 vs 4) hints that Charleroi may not create a festival of chances, but they should create the better ones. So if you’re building your Dender vs Charleroi prediction around control, territory, and a single decisive moment, you’re reading the match the same way our model does.
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Dender is relegated!
X2 -303
Charleroi to win or draw with odds of -3032 115
Charleroi is expected to win with odds of 115Under 3.5 -313
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the matchNo 105
At least one team is not expected to scoreX2&U4.5 -185
Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
0:0
0:1
|
|
2
-
0
-
3
|
|
 Charleroi |
30-Aug-25
3:1
| Dender  |
| Charleroi |
26-Apr-25
4:1
| Dender |
| Dender |
22-Apr-25
2:1
| Charleroi |
| Charleroi |
01-Feb-25
5:0
| Dender |
| Dender |
05-Oct-24
1:0
| Charleroi |
Recent Matches of Dender| 07 Mar | D |
Dender
| 2 |
Charleroi
| 2 |
| 01 Mar | D |
Cercle B
| 0 |
Dender
| 0 |
| 21 Feb | L |
Dender
| 1 |
St. Truiden
| 4 |
| 14 Feb | L |
Leuven
| 3 |
Dender
| 2 |
| 07 Feb | L |
Waregem
| 1 |
Dender
| 0 |
| 01 Feb | L |
Dender
| 1 |
Genk
| 2 |
| 25 Jan | D |
Anderlecht
| 0 |
Dender
| 0 |
| 18 Jan | W |
Dender
| 1 |
Antwerp
| 0 |
| 14 Jan | L |
Dender
| 0 |
Union S
| 2 |
| 09 Jan | D |
Kortrijk
| 0 |
Dender
| 0 |
Recent Matches of Charleroi
| 07 Mar | D | Dender |
2 | Charleroi |
2 |
| 01 Mar | L | Charleroi |
1 |  Club B |
2 |
| 22 Feb | L |  Westerlo |
2 | Charleroi |
1 |
| 14 Feb | L | Charleroi |
2 |  Gent |
3 |
| 11 Feb | L |  Union S |
4 | Charleroi |
1 |
| 07 Feb | L | Charleroi |
3 |  Cercle B |
4 |
| 04 Feb | D | Charleroi |
0 | Union S |
0 |
| 31 Jan | W |  St. Truiden |
0 | Charleroi |
2 |
| 25 Jan | W |  Antwerp |
0 | Charleroi |
2 |
| 18 Jan | W | Charleroi |
2 |  St. Liege |
0 |
Belgium - Jupiler Pro League| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Union St. | 28 | 45-16 | 60 |
| 2 |
Club Brugge KV | 28 | 53-34 | 57 |
| 3 |
St. Truiden | 28 | 46-31 | 57 |
| 4 |
Anderlecht | 28 | 41-35 | 44 |
| 5 |
KV Mechelen | 28 | 37-33 | 42 |
| 6 |
Gent | 28 | 44-42 | 39 |
| 7 |
Standard Liege | 28 | 26-34 | 38 |
| 8 |
Genk | 28 | 40-42 | 38 |
| 9 |
KVC Westerlo | 28 | 35-38 | 38 |
| 10 |
Antwerp | 28 | 30-30 | 34 |
| 11 |
Charleroi | 28 | 38-39 | 34 |
| 12 |
Zulte Waregem | 28 | 37-45 | 29 |
| 13 |
OH Leuven | 28 | 29-43 | 28 |
| 14 |
Cercle Brugge | 28 | 35-42 | 28 |
| 15 |
RAAL La | 28 | 22-31 | 27 |
| 16 |
Dender | 28 | 23-46 | 19 |
