Match Prediction
Match Prediction
England
Preview
Our Derby vs Blackburn prediction focuses on a Matchday 35 Championship meeting that lands at a tense point of the season: Saturday, 28 February 2.156, 12:30 GMT at Pride Park. Derby are trying to keep the play-off conversation alive, while Blackburn are looking over their shoulder at the relegation line. Add one extra storyline: Derby boss John Eustace is facing the club he left a little over a year ago, so the handshake might be polite, but the tackles won’t be.
Derby’s recent form has been a bit like a yo-yo (L-L-W-L-W), and that midweek 4-2 loss to Hull will have annoyed everyone in black and white. Eustace hinted the squad were “angry” and training standards shot up—often a good sign for a fast start at home. Pride Park has also been reliable for goals: Derby have scored in each of their last 14 home league matches, even if the win count in that run hasn’t been huge.
On the pitch, Eustace usually wants intensity: press high, move it quickly wide, and feed runners into the box. That plan fits the expected availability of Carlton Morris, back from a long ankle problem and likely to lead the line. With Patrick Agyemang and Bobby Clark in decent form, Derby should have enough punch to ask questions, even if they’re patching things up defensively.
Blackburn under Michael O’Neill have leaned into pragmatism: compact shape, defend their box like it’s the last biscuit tin, and counter quickly. Yuki Ohashi looks the clearest route to danger on transitions. O’Neill has talked about “character” in the run-in, and he’ll need it with a demanding schedule and a growing injury list.
History adds a little spice too. The most recent head to head noted here (2.155-03-08) ended 2-1 to Derby, and the wider narrative says Derby are chasing their first league double over Blackburn since 2014-15 (having won the reverse fixture 2-1). Blackburn, meanwhile, have already shown they can dig in as underdogs—like that 1-1 at Leeds when priced around 8.35. Derby also had their own “how did they do that?” moment with a 2.15 draw away at Ipswich at huge odds.
The market has Derby as narrow favourites: Home win 2.15, Draw 3.35, Away win 3.6. That lines up with the table pressures and the injury situation, especially Blackburn’s missing pieces.
This is the “don’t overthink it” angle. Derby’s home scoring streak plus Blackburn’s injuries make it hard to fully trust an away win, even if Rovers will be organised.
Our model sees Derby shading the game rather than running away with it. The projected match pattern supports that: 53% possession Derby to 47% Blackburn, shots 13-8, on-target 4-2, and corners an even 4-4. That suggests control without chaos—good news for under backers, and also for anyone expecting Blackburn to keep it tight for spells.
Put it together and the Derby vs Blackburn prediction reads like this: Derby start quickly, feed off the home mood after that Hull loss, and Blackburn’s counter threat keeps the score respectable—until it doesn’t. For bettors, 1X is the sensible anchor, while the Derby win at 2.15 is the slightly braver play if you like your betting tips with a bit more bite.
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Derby didn't play better in the last H2H match!
1X -313
Derby to win or draw with odds of -3131 115
Derby is expected to win with odds of 115Under 3.5 -357
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the matchNo -114
At least one team is not expected to score1X&U4.5 -200
Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1:0
2:0
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6
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5
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11
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 Blackburn |
08-Nov-25
1:2
| Derby  |
| Derby |
08-Mar-25
2:1
| Blackburn |
| Blackburn |
09-Aug-24
4:2
| Derby |
| Blackburn |
15-Mar-22
3:1
| Derby |
| Derby |
30-Oct-21
1:2
| Blackburn |
| Blackburn |
16-Apr-21
2:1
| Derby |
| Derby |
26-Sep-20
0:4
| Blackburn |
| Derby |
08-Mar-20
3:0
| Blackburn |
| Blackburn |
07-Dec-19
1:0
| Derby |
| Blackburn |
09-Apr-19
2:0
| Derby |
Recent Matches of Derby| 28 Feb | W |
Derby
| 3 |
Blackburn
| 1 |
| 24 Feb | L |
Hull
| 4 |
Derby
| 2 |
| 21 Feb | L |
Watford
| 2 |
Derby
| 0 |
| 14 Feb | W |
Derby
| 2 |
Swansea
| 0 |
| 07 Feb | L |
Derby
| 1 |
Ipswich
| 2 |
| 30 Jan | W |
Bristol City
| 0 |
Derby
| 5 |
| 23 Jan | D |
Derby
| 1 |
West Brom
| 1 |
| 20 Jan | W |
Charlton
| 1 |
Derby
| 2 |
| 17 Jan | W |
Preston
| 0 |
Derby
| 1 |
| 11 Jan | L |
Derby
| 1 |
Leeds
| 3 |
Recent Matches of Blackburn
| 28 Feb | L | Derby |
3 | Blackburn |
1 |
| 24 Feb | L | Blackburn |
1 |  Bristol City |
2 |
| 20 Feb | W | Blackburn |
1 |  Preston |
0 |
| 14 Feb | W |  QPR |
1 | Blackburn |
3 |
| 07 Feb | L |  Norwich |
2 | Blackburn |
0 |
| 31 Jan | L | Blackburn |
0 |  Hull |
1 |
| 24 Jan | D | Blackburn |
1 |  Watford |
1 |
| 20 Jan | L |  Swansea |
3 | Blackburn |
1 |
| 17 Jan | L |  Ipswich |
3 | Blackburn |
0 |
| 11 Jan | D | Hull |
0 | Blackburn |
0 |
England - Championship| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Coventry | 34 | 70-37 | 68 |
| 2 |
Middlesbrough | 34 | 51-34 | 63 |
| 3 |
Hull City | 34 | 56-48 | 60 |
| 4 |
Millwall | 34 | 45-40 | 59 |
| 5 |
Ipswich | 32 | 56-34 | 57 |
| 6 |
Wrexham | 34 | 53-45 | 54 |
| 7 |
Derby | 35 | 52-46 | 51 |
| 8 |
Watford | 35 | 45-41 | 51 |
| 9 |
Southampton | 34 | 54-45 | 50 |
| 10 |
Bristol City | 35 | 48-44 | 50 |
| 11 |
Preston | 34 | 41-38 | 49 |
| 12 |
Birmingham | 34 | 45-43 | 49 |
| 13 |
Stoke City | 34 | 38-32 | 47 |
| 14 |
QPR | 34 | 46-52 | 47 |
| 15 |
Swansea | 34 | 40-40 | 46 |
| 16 |
Norwich | 35 | 47-44 | 45 |
| 17 |
Sheffield Utd | 34 | 48-48 | 45 |
| 18 |
Charlton | 34 | 33-43 | 41 |
| 19 |
Portsmouth | 34 | 34-44 | 39 |
| 20 |
Blackburn | 35 | 33-46 | 38 |
| 21 |
West Brom | 34 | 33-50 | 35 |
| 22 |
Leicester | 35 | 47-56 | 34 |
| 23 |
Oxford United | 34 | 29-46 | 29 |
| 24 |
Sheffield | 34 | 20-68 | -7 |
