Match Prediction
Match Prediction
England
Preview
The Derby vs Ipswich prediction for Saturday, 7 February 2026 (12:31 GMT) at Pride Park is shaped by two promotion chasers with very different habits: Derby are happier without the ball, Ipswich want to keep it until it breaks you. It feels like a match where patience matters as much as quality, and where one goal could change the whole betting story.
Derby arrive as the team with the warmer hand. They sit 7th and have taken 13 points from their last six, which is playoff pace. The detail that keeps spoiling the home narrative is Pride Park itself: Derby’s home results have been uneven, down in the bottom group of the division, while their away form has been among the best.
Ipswich are 4th but have recently left points on the table, including a 1-1 against Preston and a 3-1 loss to Sheffield United. They are still within sight of the automatic places (with a game in hand), and their postponed midweek trip to Portsmouth means fresher legs… though sometimes that comes with a little rust.
John Eustace’s Derby typically defend compactly, accept long spells without the ball (around the low-40% range), and then go direct with purpose. Kieran McKenna’s Ipswich lean into control football, often near 60% possession, building through a 4-2-3-1 with creators between the lines.
This is also a classic “home crowd game”. Eustace has asked for Pride Park to sound more like Derby’s lively away sections, because the Rams’ best stretches tend to arrive when the stadium lifts their intensity after a spell of defending.
The winter window has left fingerprints all over this fixture. Derby pulled off a headline loan by bringing in Sammie Szmodics from Ipswich, only for the standard clause to rule him out against his parent club. Even if he cannot play, his knowledge of Ipswich patterns could still help Derby’s prep.
Ipswich also strengthened in key areas, notably adding Anis Mehmeti (who looked sharp on a full debut) and midfielder Dan Neil. In a controlled-possession team, those pieces matter for chance creation against a tight defensive block.
The 1X2 betting odds lean Ipswich: home win 3.95, draw 3.55, away win 2.05. That pricing fits the squad-value gap too (Derby about €51.318m vs Ipswich about €197.75m), but Derby have already shown they can punch above the numbers—like the surprise 2-2 away draw in August 2025 when few gave them a chance.
Our model expects Ipswich to have control: 61% possession to Derby’s 39%, with shots projected at 15-10. On target, it tightens to 4-3, which hints at a game where Ipswich take more attempts but Derby still create enough to score.
NerdyTips’ AI-generated best tip is under 3.55 goals at odds 1.31, with a trust level of 3.95/10. Our own statistical analysis lands on the same place: under 3.55 goals (trust 3.95, odds 1.31). That lines up cleanly with the tactical story—Derby compact and reactive, Ipswich controlling but often facing a crowded box.
In the 1X2 market, we rate X2 (Ipswich or draw) as the most likely route, at odds 1.31 with confidence 2.0. It respects Ipswich’s control profile and stronger overall talent base, while acknowledging Derby’s recent habit of making “impossible” points possible.
Recent head to head notes support caution: Ipswich won 2-0 at home in April 2023, but Derby earned that eyebrow-raising 2-2 at Portman Road in 2025. For this Derby vs Ipswich prediction, the numbers and the narrative both point to a controlled away performance, but not necessarily a comfortable one—hence the value in X2 and the calmer logic of under 3.55 goals for sports betting purposes.
Read More
Ipswich has an unusually high recent form
U3.5 -323
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -323X2 -357
Ipswich to win or drawUnder 3.5 -323
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the matchYes -114
Both teams are expected to scoreX2&U4.5 -217
Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1:1
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6
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5
-
8
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 Ipswich |
30-Aug-25
2:2
| Derby  |
| Derby |
01-Apr-23
0:2
| Ipswich |
| Ipswich |
21-Oct-22
1:0
| Derby |
| Ipswich |
13-Feb-19
1:1
| Derby |
| Derby |
21-Aug-18
2:0
| Ipswich |
| Ipswich |
30-Dec-17
1:2
| Derby |
| Derby |
28-Nov-17
0:1
| Ipswich |
| Ipswich |
31-Jan-17
0:3
| Derby |
| Derby |
13-Sep-16
0:1
| Ipswich |
| Derby |
07-May-16
0:1
| Ipswich |
Recent Matches of Derby| 10 Mar |
Millwall
| - |
Derby
| - | |
| 07 Mar | W |
Derby
| 2 |
Sheffield Wed
| 1 |
| 28 Feb | W |
Derby
| 3 |
Blackburn
| 1 |
| 24 Feb | L |
Hull
| 4 |
Derby
| 2 |
| 21 Feb | L |
Watford
| 2 |
Derby
| 0 |
| 14 Feb | W |
Derby
| 2 |
Swansea
| 0 |
| 07 Feb | L |
Derby
| 1 |
Ipswich
| 2 |
| 30 Jan | W |
Bristol City
| 0 |
Derby
| 5 |
| 23 Jan | D |
Derby
| 1 |
West Brom
| 1 |
| 20 Jan | W |
Charlton
| 1 |
Derby
| 2 |
Recent Matches of Ipswich
| 10 Mar |  Stoke |
- | Ipswich |
- | |
| 07 Mar | D | Ipswich |
1 |  Leicester |
1 |
| 03 Mar | W | Ipswich |
1 |  Hull |
0 |
| 28 Feb | W | Ipswich |
3 |  Swansea |
0 |
| 24 Feb | W |  Watford |
0 | Ipswich |
2 |
| 21 Feb | L |  Wrexham |
5 | Ipswich |
3 |
| 13 Feb | L | Wrexham |
1 | Ipswich |
0 |
| 07 Feb | W | Derby |
1 | Ipswich |
2 |
| 31 Jan | D | Ipswich |
1 |  Preston |
1 |
| 24 Jan | L |  Sheffield Utd |
3 | Ipswich |
1 |
England - Championship| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Coventry | 36 | 74-38 | 74 |
| 2 |
Middlesbrough | 36 | 57-35 | 69 |
| 3 |
Millwall | 36 | 50-41 | 65 |
| 4 |
Ipswich | 35 | 61-35 | 64 |
| 5 |
Hull City | 36 | 57-52 | 60 |
| 6 |
Wrexham | 35 | 54-45 | 57 |
| 7 |
Derby | 36 | 54-47 | 54 |
| 8 |
Southampton | 35 | 57-46 | 53 |
| 9 |
Watford | 35 | 45-41 | 51 |
| 10 |
Bristol City | 36 | 48-46 | 50 |
| 11 |
Sheffield Utd | 36 | 51-49 | 49 |
| 12 |
Birmingham | 36 | 46-47 | 49 |
| 13 |
Swansea | 36 | 42-43 | 49 |
| 14 |
Preston | 36 | 42-43 | 49 |
| 15 |
Stoke City | 36 | 39-36 | 47 |
| 16 |
QPR | 36 | 46-57 | 47 |
| 17 |
Norwich | 35 | 47-44 | 45 |
| 18 |
Charlton | 36 | 34-44 | 44 |
| 19 |
Portsmouth | 35 | 35-45 | 40 |
| 20 |
Blackburn | 36 | 34-47 | 39 |
| 21 |
West Brom | 36 | 35-53 | 36 |
| 22 |
Leicester | 36 | 48-57 | 35 |
| 23 |
Oxford United | 36 | 34-48 | 35 |
| 24 |
Sheffield | 36 | 22-73 | -7 |
