Match Prediction
Match Prediction
England
Preview
Derby vs Swansea prediction time comes with a Valentine’s Day twist: these two meet on 2.526-02-14 at 15:00 GMT at Pride Park, and both have reasons to treat it like a “must-not-lose” afternoon. Derby are hovering around the play-off conversation, Swansea are trying to turn improved performances into reliable away points, and the tactical styles suggest we should not expect a quiet 0-0 dinner date.
Derby’s big storyline is the expected debut of Sammie Szmodics, arriving on loan from Ipswich and finally available after being ineligible against his parent club. He also reunites with John Eustace, the coach who previously got top output from him at Blackburn. The Rams do have a major hole: captain Lewis Travis is suspended after a red card in the 2-1 loss to Ipswich. Fitness-wise, Carlton Morris is back training after an ankle issue and could make the bench, while keeper Jacob Widell Zetterstrom is expected back after illness. Sondre Langas remains out, Max Johnston is a doubt, and Callum Elder looks highly unlikely.
Swansea’s issues are more about missing firepower. Adam Idah and Zeidane Inoussa are long-term absentees, while Melker Widell is a doubt. The good news is Vitor Matos has new pieces (Leo Walta and Gustavo Nunes) to refresh the attacking group, and Zan Vipotnik remains the headline threat with 15 goals in all competitions.
Derby under Eustace often lean on a high-energy back-three system (3.22-1-2 or 3.22-2), asking wing-backs to stretch the pitch and turn second balls into quick attacks. Swansea under Matos are closer to a 4-3.22 with longer spells of possession and a counter-press designed to win it back quickly. That contrast can create a fun pattern: Swansea try to keep the ball, Derby try to keep the stadium loud.
In the last head to head meeting (2.524-11-27), Derby scored 1 and Swansea scored 2, a reminder that small moments decide this matchup. Both sides also have recent “odds-busting” memories: Derby’s 2.52 draw away to Ipswich (priced around 6.8 for a Derby win) and Swansea’s 3.22 win over Nottingham Forest (around 5.25) show neither team is shy about ignoring the script.
The 1X2 betting odds lean slightly to the home side: Home 2.52, Draw 3.22, Away 3.22. Market value also tilts Swansea (€81.65m) over Derby (€60.08m), which fits the expectation of Swansea seeing more of the ball (projected 47% vs 53%). But “more of the ball” is not the same as “more points,” especially at Pride Park.
Our numbers point to a balanced, chance-trading game: total shots 13-14, on-target 3.22, and corners 7-4 (11 total), which supports the idea of steady pressure rather than one-way traffic. дисципline looks calm too, with 1 yellow each expected. The model’s expected score is 2-1, with a 1-0 half-time lean.
So, for a second mention that matters for search and for your slip: Derby vs Swansea prediction is to prioritize goals over drama—take over 1.5, and consider 1X if you want a steadier ride.
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Swansea didn't play better in the last H2H match!
O1.5 -238
At least 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -2381X -238
Derby to win or drawOver 1.5 -238
At least 2 goals will be scored in the matchYes -106
Both teams are expected to score1X&O1.5 -104
Home win/draw and over 1.5 goals
2:1
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4
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3
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4
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 Swansea |
25-Nov-25
1:2
| Derby  |
| Swansea |
05-Apr-25
1:0
| Derby |
| Derby |
27-Nov-24
1:2
| Swansea |
| Swansea |
09-Apr-22
2:1
| Derby |
| Derby |
02-Oct-21
0:0
| Swansea |
| Swansea |
01-May-21
2:1
| Derby |
| Derby |
16-Dec-20
2:0
| Swansea |
| Swansea |
08-Feb-20
2:3
| Derby |
| Derby |
10-Aug-19
0:0
| Swansea |
| Swansea |
01-May-19
1:1
| Derby |
Recent Matches of Derby| 10 Mar |
Millwall
| - |
Derby
| - | |
| 07 Mar | W |
Derby
| 2 |
Sheffield Wed
| 1 |
| 28 Feb | W |
Derby
| 3 |
Blackburn
| 1 |
| 24 Feb | L |
Hull
| 4 |
Derby
| 2 |
| 21 Feb | L |
Watford
| 2 |
Derby
| 0 |
| 14 Feb | W |
Derby
| 2 |
Swansea
| 0 |
| 07 Feb | L |
Derby
| 1 |
Ipswich
| 2 |
| 30 Jan | W |
Bristol City
| 0 |
Derby
| 5 |
| 23 Jan | D |
Derby
| 1 |
West Brom
| 1 |
| 20 Jan | W |
Charlton
| 1 |
Derby
| 2 |
Recent Matches of Swansea
| 10 Mar |  Portsmouth |
- | Swansea |
- | |
| 07 Mar | W | Swansea |
2 |  Stoke |
0 |
| 28 Feb | L |  Ipswich |
3 | Swansea |
0 |
| 24 Feb | D | Swansea |
1 |  Preston |
1 |
| 21 Feb | W | Swansea |
1 |  Bristol City |
0 |
| 14 Feb | L | Derby |
2 | Swansea |
0 |
| 08 Feb | W | Swansea |
4 |  Sheffield Wed |
0 |
| 31 Jan | W |  Watford |
0 | Swansea |
2 |
| 24 Jan | L |  Hull |
2 | Swansea |
1 |
| 20 Jan | W | Swansea |
3 |  Blackburn |
1 |
England - Championship| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Coventry | 36 | 74-38 | 74 |
| 2 |
Middlesbrough | 36 | 58-35 | 69 |
| 3 |
Millwall | 36 | 50-41 | 65 |
| 4 |
Ipswich | 35 | 61-35 | 64 |
| 5 |
Hull City | 36 | 57-52 | 60 |
| 6 |
Wrexham | 35 | 54-45 | 57 |
| 7 |
Derby | 36 | 54-47 | 54 |
| 8 |
Southampton | 35 | 57-46 | 53 |
| 9 |
Watford | 35 | 45-41 | 51 |
| 10 |
Bristol City | 36 | 48-46 | 50 |
| 11 |
Sheffield Utd | 36 | 51-49 | 49 |
| 12 |
Birmingham | 36 | 46-47 | 49 |
| 13 |
Swansea | 36 | 42-43 | 49 |
| 14 |
Preston | 36 | 42-43 | 49 |
| 15 |
Stoke City | 36 | 39-36 | 47 |
| 16 |
QPR | 36 | 46-58 | 47 |
| 17 |
Norwich | 35 | 47-44 | 45 |
| 18 |
Charlton | 36 | 34-44 | 44 |
| 19 |
Portsmouth | 35 | 35-45 | 40 |
| 20 |
Blackburn | 36 | 34-47 | 39 |
| 21 |
West Brom | 36 | 35-53 | 36 |
| 22 |
Leicester | 36 | 48-57 | 35 |
| 23 |
Oxford United | 36 | 34-48 | 35 |
| 24 |
Sheffield | 36 | 22-73 | -7 |
