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Match Prediction

Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. Prediction

Finished
Ireland flag Ireland
Premier Division

Derry City

-

5 May14:45
1 : 0

Patrick's

€4.05m

Preview

Derry City vs Patrick's Prediction Premier Division

Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. Prediction: Table-Toppers Face Tempered Titans at the Brandywell

Welcome to the ultimate Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. prediction, where numbers meet narrative and every stat tells a story. As the Premier Division serves up this top-table tangle at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium (kick-off: 19:45 GMT, 2025-05-05), the stakes are as high as the tension. Derry, sitting 5th with 20 points, host league leaders St Pat's (22 points) in a duel that could redraw the title race. Bookmakers have their say—Derry at 2.35 for the win, a draw at 3.1, and St Pat's at 3.2—but the real drama lies in the details. Let’s dig into the betting tips, head to head history, and the quirks that could tip the scales.

Numbers, Nerves, and Narrative: The Tale So Far

Derry City’s home turf has seen its share of drama, but this season, the Brandywell has been more chessboard than battlefield. The Candystripes’ 3-yellow-card average hints at a team that walks the disciplinary tightrope—fiery but focused. Meanwhile, St Patrick's Athletic have quietly climbed to the summit, their 40.2% 'Both Teams to Score' record suggesting a side that prefers to keep things tight at the back and pounce when it matters.

  • Recent form: Derry’s last head to head with St Pat’s ended in a 3-0 home triumph (July 2024), when they were clear favorites (1.68 odds). But the script has flipped: St Pat’s now lead the league, and Derry are chasing.
  • St Pat’s resilience: The Saints recently held Istanbul Basaksehir to a shock 0-0 draw, defying 7.5 odds and showing they can frustrate even the most creative attacks.
  • League trends: Only 39.1% of Premier Division games go over 2.5 goals, and home teams win just 37.9%—so don’t expect a goal-fest or a Brandywell banker.

Betting Tips and Predictions: Where the Smart Money Goes

Let’s get nerdy with the numbers. NerdyTips’ AI gives an 'Under 2.5 Goals' tip a 4.3/10 trust score at 1.6 odds—hardly a ringing endorsement, but it matches the league’s low-scoring trend. The predicted 1-1 scoreline echoes the tactical stalemates that have defined recent meetings, even if Derry’s last home win was a three-goal stroll.

  1. Possession battle: Expect a razor-close split—51% to Derry, 49% to St Pat’s. Both sides like to keep the ball, but neither will risk too much.
  2. Shots on target: Derry are forecast to have 12 shots (4 on target), while St Pat’s might muster just 8 (2 on target). Efficiency, not volume, will be key.
  3. Set pieces and cards: Just 7 corners expected, with 5 yellow cards likely—this could be a stop-start tactical tussle, not an end-to-end thriller.

The AI’s 1X prediction (Derry or Draw, 1.33 odds, trust score 2.0) looks sensible, especially given St Pat’s modest away record and the Brandywell’s reputation for drama. But with only 36.1% of league games ending in a draw, the value may lie in backing Derry to edge it—if they can keep their tempers in check.

Final Verdict: Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. Prediction and Best Bets

So, what’s the best Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. prediction for punters and fans alike? Expect a tactical battle, with both teams wary of giving too much away. The first half could well end goalless (0-0), but the second half promises more action as nerves fray and spaces open up. Derry’s hunger for revenge, combined with their home shot advantage, might just tilt the scales—though St Pat’s defensive discipline is not to be underestimated.

  • Best bet: Under 2.5 Goals (1.6 odds)—the stats and recent head to head history point to a cagey contest.
  • Correct score: 1-1 draw—mirroring the AI’s prediction and the teams’ recent defensive solidity.
  • Value play: Derry or Draw (1X, 1.33 odds)—the Brandywell factor and St Pat’s away struggles make this a smart safety net.

In summary, this Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. prediction is all about margins. Expect a chess match, not a shootout, with every yellow card and corner carrying extra weight. For those seeking betting tips with a story, this is one for the purists—and the punters who love their football with a side of stats.

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Derry City vs Patrick's

U2.5 -167

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -167
4/10

1x2 Tip

1X -303

Derry City to win or draw
2/10

Total Goals

Under 2.5 -167

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match
4/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes -106

Both teams are expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U4.5 -200

Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

1:1

Stats Predictions

51%
Ball Possession
49%
12
Total Shots
8
4
Shots on Goal
2
3
Shots Off Goal
2
4
Corners
3
3
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

2.5
Total Goals
2
1.4
Goals Scored
1.4
1.1
Goals Against
0.6
49%
Possession
54%
13.5
Total Shots
11.3
4.9
Shots on Goal
3.1
4.4
Shots off Goal
3.9
12.5
Fouls
8.6
4.8
Corners
4.4
1
Offsides
1.6
3
Yellow Cards
1.88
0.13
Red Cards
0.25
376
Total Passes
420

Overview Last 10 Matches

5
Wins
5
8
Over 1.5 Goals
7
5
Over 2.5 Goals
4
2
Over 3.5 Goals
1
5
Both Teams Scored
3
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Derry City
14 - 6 - 7
St Patrick's Athl.
St Patrick's Athl. Patrick's 23-Jun-25
0:1
Derry City Derry City
Derry City Derry City 05-May-25
1:0
Patrick's St Patrick's Athl.
St Patrick's Athl. Patrick's 03-Mar-25
2:0
Derry City Derry City
St Patrick's Athl. Patrick's 25-Oct-24
1:0
Derry City Derry City
Derry City Derry City 21-Jul-24
3:0
Patrick's St Patrick's Athl.
St Patrick's Athl. Patrick's 17-May-24
0:1
Derry City Derry City
Derry City Derry City 22-Apr-24
3:1
Patrick's St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City Derry City 01-Mar-24
2:1
Patrick's St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City Derry City 03-Nov-23
3:0
Patrick's St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City Derry City 20-Aug-23
0:0
Patrick's St Patrick's Athl.

Ireland - Premier Division Ireland - Premier Division

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Shamrock RoversShamrock Rover 36
56-33
66
2 Derry CityDerry City 36
52-39
63
3 ShelbourneShelbourne 36
48-37
59
4 BohemiansBohemians 36
48-39
54
5 St Patrick's Athl.St Patrick's A 36
42-32
52
6 Drogheda UnitedDrogheda Unite 36
38-38
51
7 Sligo RoversSligo Rovers 36
42-54
41
8 Galway UnitedGalway United 36
37-44
39
9 WaterfordWaterford 36
41-60
39
10 Cork CityCork City 36
33-61
24
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