Eibar vs Gijon Prediction

Eibar vs Gijon prediction: Ipurúa sets up a tight classic

The Eibar vs Gijon prediction for Sunday, 1 February 2026 (15:15 GMT) writes itself like a familiar Segunda División story: two proud clubs, a small stadium with big opinions, and a fixture Eibar treat as a “historic classic” because it keeps coming back around. Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa (around 8,164 seats) rarely gives you a quiet afternoon, even when the scoreline tries to.

SD Eibar come into this one still looking over their shoulder in the lower half, but with clearer ideas since Beñat San José took over in February 2.25. Sporting Gijón, under Rubén Albés, arrive with promotion-playoff thoughts and the sort of away confidence that makes home fans check the weather and the referee before kick-off.

What’s on the line: identity, points, and a familiar opponent

This is a classic LaLiga 2 meeting not just because it has history, but because it tends to feel like a test of style. Eibar want control through structure; Sporting want momentum through pressure. The head to head is busy, with Sporting being the opponent Eibar have faced more than any other across professional levels (well over 45 meetings), and that familiarity usually brings a chess-match edge.

Team news and likely shapes

Eibar’s recent improvement has been built on being harder to break down, which fits San José’s public message that clean sheets come first. A compact 4-2-3-1 looks likely again, with a focus on closing wide spaces and making Sporting’s wingers play with their back to goal.

• Eibar key men: Jon Bautista and Jon Karrikaburu remain the main finishers, while Aleix Garrido has become the link between midfield and attack.
• Eibar absences: Anaitz Arbilla is suspended (yellow-card accumulation). Adu Ares remains out after knee surgery (targeting April 2026). Álvaro Rodríguez is sidelined with a muscle issue, and Jon Guruzeta is a doubt.

Sporting’s plan under Albés is more vertical: higher pressing, faster transitions, and a willingness to attack in numbers. With a key attacker missing, they may share the scoring workload rather than forcing it through one route.

• Sporting key men: Jonathan Dubasin has been the sharpest finisher, and loan arrival Andrés Ferrari offers another option up front.
• Sporting absences: Juan Ferney Otero is out until late March (hamstring). Lander Olaetxea is suspended. Mamadou Loum Ndiaye is sidelined, and Éric Curbelo is a major doubt.

Recent context and head to head notes for bettors

Eibar’s last couple of results suggest a team learning how to suffer: a vital 1-0 over Almería and a 0-0 at Granada. Sporting have been more up-and-down, including a 1-3 loss to Málaga, but their away record has been a genuine strength, reportedly winning more than half of their road games this season.

The head to head also supports a lively storyline. On 2024-10-05, Sporting won 3-1 when Eibar were priced at 2.02 and Sporting at 4.46. They’ve also played tight games more recently, including a 1-1 draw in their latest meeting (November 2.25), which fits the idea that this fixture often lives on small moments.

Eibar vs Gijon prediction: betting odds, tips, and picks

Let’s get to the sports betting numbers. The main betting odds for the 1X2 market price Eibar at 2.25, the draw at 3.2, and Sporting at 3.55. Those odds reflect the usual Ipurúa effect: Eibar are rarely an easy away day, even when the league table suggests otherwise.

NerdyTips AI picks (and how they fit the match)

• Best wager: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.57 (confidence 2.9/10)
• 1X2 pick: Home win (1) @ 2.25 (trust level 1.7)
• Correct score: 1-0
• Half-time: 0-0

At first glance, under 2.5 goals might raise an eyebrow because Eibar home games have often gone over 2.5 this season. But the team news and tactical setup push us back toward a tighter script: Eibar missing Arbilla and carrying several fitness doubts can reduce their attacking rhythm, while Sporting’s Otero absence removes a reliable scoring outlet. Add San José’s defensive-first priorities, and the under starts to look like a “grim but logical” bet rather than a romantic one.

Match stats projections that support the angle

• Ball possession: Eibar 56% vs Sporting 44%
• Shots: Eibar 11 vs Sporting 10
• Shots on target: Eibar 3 vs Sporting 4
• Corners: Eibar 4, Sporting 5 (total 9)
• Cards: Eibar 1 yellow, Sporting 3 yellows

The projected shots on goal are the tell here: plenty of attempts, but not a flood of clean looks. That often leads to the sort of match where one set piece, one rebound, or one mistake decides it. Our Eibar vs Gijon prediction leans into that: Eibar to edge it 1-0, with a 0-0 at half-time and the under 2.5 goals doing the heavy lifting in the betting tips column.

One final note for sports betting readers: Sporting’s squad is valued higher (€24.20m vs Eibar’s €16.85m), but Ipurúa has never cared much for spreadsheets. If Eibar can keep Dubasin facing his own goal more than he’d like, the home win at 2.25 becomes the kind of price that looks friendlier every minute the score stays level.