Elche vs Osasuna Prediction

Elche vs Osasuna prediction for Feb 13: story, stats and tips

Elche vs Osasuna prediction time at the Martínez Valero is always a mix of hope and hard truth, and Friday, 2026-02-13 (20:00 GMT) feels exactly like that. Elche arrive looking over their shoulder at the relegation line, while Osasuna travel like a team that has started browsing European maps. It’s Round 24, and both clubs know February points count the same as May points—unfortunately.

Elche, sitting 15th, are stuck in a rough loop: three straight defeats and six league games without a win. The recent scorelines tell the story of a team trying to play brave football while conceding like it’s a bad habit (3-1 Sociedad, 3-1 Barça, 3-2 Levante). Eder Sarabia has kept the possession-first plan—build from the back, use width, take risks. The fans would love it more if it didn’t come with an average of 2.6 goals conceded per game over the last five.

Osasuna, 8th, are trending the opposite way. Alessio Lisci has them on a five-match unbeaten run, boosted by a dramatic 2-1 away win at Celta Vigo on Feb 6. This is a side that presses, goes vertical, and treats dead balls like a personal hobby. They lead La Liga in set-piece goals (12), and when Catena or Raúl García attack a corner, defenders tend to suddenly remember they left the oven on.

Team news and tactical notes to watch

Injuries and returns shape the game plan on both sides, especially in midfield control and set-piece defending.

• Elche availability: Héctor Fort is out (shoulder). Rafa Mir is a major doubt (muscle). Josan is a late call. Aleix Febas returns from suspension and should start. John Chetauya is close after a hamstring issue.
• Osasuna availability: Iker Benito remains out (ACL). Boyomo is sidelined. Moncayola has a muscle strain. Lucas Torró returns after a one-match ban, which matters for second balls and stopping counters.
• Head to head: Osasuna are unbeaten in the last 10 meetings with Elche (3 wins, 7 draws). The most recent head to head in 2022 ended 1-1.
• Context detail: Elche’s winter sale of young Rodrigo Mendoza to Atlético didn’t exactly lift the mood in the stands.

Sarabia has talked about “humility” and a “200% effort,” after his memorable “slingshot vs heavy weaponry” line. Lisci, meanwhile, calls this away stretch “crucial,” insisting Osasuna must stay sharp despite being in a “gold-standard moment.” Translation: nobody is relaxing.

Elche vs Osasuna prediction: betting odds, tips and AI picks

Now to the numbers that shape sports betting conversations. The betting odds price this as tight: Home win 2.95, Draw 3.2, Away win 2.7. That slight lean to Osasuna fits the table, the form, and the head to head record—but it’s not a “free money” situation, because Elche’s possession style can still create momentum at home.

NerdyTips AI best tip and why it fits the match

NerdyTips leans into goals rather than picking a side with full confidence. The best tip is over 1.5 goals (odds 1.35) with an 8.5/10 confidence rating. Considering Elche’s recent defensive leaks and Osasuna’s set-piece output, two total goals feels more like a floor than a ceiling.

• Main tip: Over 1.5 goals (confidence 8.5/10, odds 1.35)
• 1x2 lean: Away win “2” (confidence 2.8, odds 2.7)
• Predicted score: 2-3, with a predicted half-time score of 1-1

Match model snapshot (how the game may look)

The model expects Elche to edge possession (55% vs 45%), but Osasuna to land the heavier punch: 10 vs 13 shots, 3 vs 4 on target. Corners are projected 3-5 (8 total), which quietly suits Osasuna’s set-piece identity. Discipline looks moderate: 2 yellows for Elche, 1 for Osasuna.

Put it together and the Elche vs Osasuna prediction reads like this: Elche may control phases, but Osasuna’s efficiency—especially on dead balls—can decide it. For sports betting readers who want a steadier lane than the 1x2, over 1.5 goals matches both form and model. For braver tickets, the away win at 2.7 is logical… just don’t be shocked if this one tries to turn into another 2-2 plot twist, because both teams have been there recently.