Preview
The Empoli vs Cesena prediction for Saturday, 2026-02-28 (kickoff 14:00 GMT) feels less like a calm mid-season fixture and more like a “who blinks first?” kind of afternoon at the Castellani. Both sides arrive with confidence running low, points feeling heavy, and pressure sitting on the benches. Add the family subplot up front, and this one has the ingredients for a nervy, story-driven Serie B match where small details decide the bets.
Round 27 lands at a delicate moment for both clubs. Cesena are hanging around the playoff line (8th), while Empoli sit just behind them (around 10th/11th), close enough that this result can flip the mood in a single swing. The table says “mid-pack,” but the stakes feel more like a six-pointer.
Italian football loves a narrative, and this one is hard to ignore: twin brothers on opposing attacks. Empoli’s Stiven Shpendi has been the home side’s main finisher with 9 league goals, while Cesena’s Cristian Shpendi has responded with 8 goals and 4 assists. They grew up in the same academy setup at Cesena, and now they’re the headline threats for two teams searching for a spark.
Empoli’s Alessio Dionisi is dealing with a winless run (six to seven games by recent count, with four defeats in the mix). A recent 2-2 draw with Frosinone stopped the bleeding but didn’t exactly restore calm. His return in October 2025 brought expectation, but part of the fanbase has not fully warmed to him after his previous exit for Sassuolo—so every dropped point gets louder than usual.
On the other side, Michele Mignani’s Cesena have stumbled badly: 7 losses in the last 9, and three straight defeats capped by a 2-3 loss to Spezia. Still, the club publicly backed him on February 23, pointing to their playoff position as a reason not to panic. That’s support, yes—but it also reads like: “Please stabilize this now.”
Dionisi has suggested “tactical surprises” to snap Empoli’s run, and there’s a clear practical reason: Empoli need fewer gifts at the back and more control in midfield. The winter additions are expected to help with that, especially defender Matteo Lovato (loan) and midfielder Luca Magnino, both aimed at bringing structure to a team that has struggled to keep clean sheets.
Cesena, meanwhile, remain capable going forward but have been far too open. Conceding 10 goals across the last three games tells its own story, and training at Villa Silvia reportedly focused heavily on defensive organization—basically, fewer “easy goals,” the very thing Mignani complained about after Spezia.
On the head to head front, Empoli have traditionally had the upper hand, winning 8 of the last 14 meetings. And both clubs have recent reminders that odds aren’t destiny: Empoli managed a surprising 1-1 away at Como in 2025 despite being priced around 5.0 for the win, while Cesena shocked Verona away in 2024, winning 2-1 at about 5.5. This match has that same “don’t assume” feeling.
The market sees a close one. Empoli are slight favorites, but not by much—exactly the kind of price range that says “form is messy, and we’re not fully sure.” For bettors, that usually shifts attention toward smarter angles than just picking a winner.
Our model projects slightly more control for Empoli: 54% possession to 46%, with both teams expected to produce 12 shots each. The difference is in shot quality: 4 shots on target projected for Empoli vs 3 for Cesena. Corners are forecast to be perfectly balanced (5-5, 10 total), while the card outlook leans toward Cesena seeing more yellows (Empoli 1, Cesena 2).
There’s also a quiet financial edge: Empoli’s squad value is estimated at €36.95m compared to Cesena’s €28.60m. It doesn’t score goals by itself, but over a long season it often shows up in depth, bench options, and late-game control.
Here’s where our betting tips land for this fixture, based on the match context and the projected stats.
This is the cleanest fit between narrative and data. Empoli are projected to have a touch more of the ball, slightly more on-target threat, and they’re at home with a manager openly calling for a response. Combine that with Cesena’s recent habit of conceding (and conceding quickly), and the HS bet becomes the most stable way to ride an Empoli-lean without overcommitting to the full-time result.
Even if both teams are in poor form, the defensive trends are hard to ignore—especially Cesena’s recent leakage. With 24 total shots projected and both Shpendi brothers likely central to the chance creation, Over 1.5 goals reads like a practical bet that doesn’t require a perfect finishing day.
A 2-0 script matches the idea of Empoli starting with purpose, getting the crowd involved, and using slightly better control to manage the later phases. It’s not a guarantee—Serie B never is—but it’s consistent with the on-target edge and the home scoring recommendation.
For anyone searching “Empoli vs Cesena prediction” and wanting something usable rather than noisy: keep it simple. The 1X2 home win is playable at 2.45, but it carries lower trust because both teams are wobbling. The more “boring” bets look sharper here—Empoli to score and Over 1.5 goals align better with the projected match flow, the defensive concerns, and the likely game story built around two forwards who rarely stay quiet for long.
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Empoli didn't play better in the last H2H match!
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4
-
1
-
1
|
|
Cesena |
10-Jan-26
0:1
| Empoli ![]() |
Cesena |
17-Apr-18
2:3
| Empoli ![]() |
Empoli |
18-Nov-17
5:3
| Cesena ![]() |
Empoli |
29-Nov-16
1:2
| Cesena ![]() |
Empoli |
08-Feb-15
2:0
| Cesena ![]() |
Cesena |
20-Sep-14
2:2
| Empoli ![]() |
| 20 Feb | D |
Frosinone
| 2 |
Empoli
| 2 |
| 15 Feb | D |
Empoli
| 1 |
Reggiana
| 1 |
| 11 Feb | L |
Empoli
| 1 |
Juve Stabia
| 2 |
| 07 Feb | L |
Palermo
| 3 |
Empoli
| 2 |
| 31 Jan | D |
Empoli
| 0 |
Modena
| 0 |
| 23 Jan | L |
Carrarese
| 3 |
Empoli
| 0 |
| 17 Jan | L |
Empoli
| 0 |
Sudtirol
| 1 |
| 10 Jan | W |
Cesena
| 0 |
Empoli
| 1 |
| 27 Dec | D |
Empoli
| 1 |
Frosinone
| 1 |
| 21 Dec | W |
Mantova
| 0 |
Empoli
| 1 |
| 21 Feb | L | Cesena |
2 | Spezia |
3 |
| 14 Feb | L | Cesena |
0 | Venezia |
4 |
| 10 Feb | L | Entella |
3 | Cesena |
1 |
| 06 Feb | W | Cesena |
2 | Pescara |
0 |
| 31 Jan | L | Avellino |
3 | Cesena |
1 |
| 24 Jan | L | Cesena |
1 | Bari |
2 |
| 17 Jan | W | Reggiana |
1 | Cesena |
2 |
| 10 Jan | L | Cesena |
0 | Empoli |
1 |
| 27 Dec | L | Catanzaro |
2 | Cesena |
0 |
| 20 Dec | D | Cesena |
1 | Juve Stabia |
1 |
Italy - Serie B| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Venezia | 26 | 53-24 | 56 |
| 2 |
Monza | 26 | 39-20 | 54 |
| 3 |
Frosinone | 26 | 48-24 | 53 |
| 4 |
Palermo | 26 | 45-19 | 51 |
| 5 |
Catanzaro | 26 | 37-27 | 44 |
| 6 |
Modena | 26 | 35-20 | 43 |
| 7 |
Juve Stabia | 26 | 31-31 | 38 |
| 8 |
Cesena | 26 | 34-37 | 37 |
| 9 |
Sudtirol | 26 | 26-27 | 33 |
| 10 |
Empoli | 26 | 32-36 | 30 |
| 11 |
Carrarese | 26 | 31-36 | 30 |
| 12 |
Padova | 26 | 26-32 | 30 |
| 13 |
Sampdoria | 26 | 28-34 | 29 |
| 14 |
Avellino | 26 | 30-42 | 29 |
| 15 |
Reggiana | 26 | 28-36 | 26 |
| 16 |
Mantova | 26 | 26-41 | 26 |
| 17 |
Spezia | 26 | 23-34 | 25 |
| 18 |
Virtus Entella | 26 | 24-37 | 25 |
| 19 |
Bari | 26 | 21-39 | 22 |
| 20 |
Pescara | 26 | 30-51 | 18 |