Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Preview
The Stade Olympique Hammadi-Agrebi is set to host a classic David vs. Goliath encounter this Sunday as ES Tunis, the titans of Tunisian football, welcome the plucky underdogs EGS Gafsa. On paper, this looks like a foregone conclusion—Tunis’ squad value towers over Gafsa’s at €20.10m compared to a modest €2.92m. The odds reflect that gap, with the home side priced at a meager 1.15 to win, while Gafsa’s chances are given a Hail Mary 18.0. But as any seasoned fan knows, football isn’t played on paper. Or, in Gafsa’s case, it might need to be—because stopping Tunis’ firepower will require something close to divine intervention.
Tunisia’s Ligue 1 is a league where home advantage isn’t just a cliché—it’s a statistical reality. Home teams win 42.9% of matches, while away sides scrape just 23.3%. Draws? They happen 33.9% of the time, but even those feel like moral victories for visitors. For Gafsa, those numbers are a grim backdrop. Their recent 0-0 stalemate against AS Gabes (defying 5.0 odds) proved they can dig in, but Tunis are a different beast entirely. NerdyTips’ AI-driven projections see this ending 2-0, with a 1-0 lead at halftime. The confidence in a home win sits at a solid 5.0/10, while the 'over 1.5 goals' bet (1.3 odds) is a safer play at 3.0/10 confidence. Translation: Tunis should win, but don’t expect a goal avalanche.
Let’s be honest—Gafsa’s backline will have their work cut out. Tunis’ attack is relentless, and with 57.2% of league games surpassing 1.5 goals, the odds favor at least two hitting the net. Gafsa’s best hope is to channel their inner fortress mentality, like they did against Gabes. But Tunis at home? That’s like bringing a spoon to a sword fight. Their squad depth, financial muscle, and home-pitch swagger make them near-impossible to stifle for 90 minutes. Still, football loves an underdog story. Just don’t bet your rent on it.
For bettors, this isn’t the game to get cute. The 1x2 market screams 'take the 1.15 odds on Tunis,' even if the payout won’t buy you a yacht. The smarter move? 'Over 1.5 goals' at 1.3 odds. It’s not glamorous, but neither is eating instant noodles because you chased a 18.0 long shot. Gafsa might park the bus, but Tunis have the tools to unpark it, tow it, and maybe set it on fire. Stats, trends, and cold hard logic all point to a comfortable home win. But hey—if Gafsa pull off a miracle, at least you’ll have a story to tell.
ES Tunis vs EGS Gafsa isn’t just a mismatch—it’s a masterclass in how odds reflect reality. Tunis are the heavyweight, Gafsa the scrappy challenger, and the numbers leave little room for romance. Still, football’s magic lies in its unpredictability. Maybe Gafsa’s keeper turns into a brick wall. Maybe Tunis have an off day. But betting against the stats? That’s a gamble even they might not take.
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O1.5 -333
At least 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -3331 -667
ES Tunis is expected to win with odds of -667Over 1.5 -333
At least 2 goals will be scored in the matchNo -400
At least one team is not expected to score1&U4.5 -286
Home win and under 4.5 goals
2:0
|
|
7
-
3
-
0
|
|
 ES Tunis |
13-Apr-25
1:0
| EGS Gafsa  |
| EGS Gafsa |
25-Dec-24
0:3
| ES Tunis |
| EGS Gafsa |
12-Jun-16
0:0
| ES Tunis |
| ES Tunis |
06-Jan-16
3:0
| EGS Gafsa |
| ES Tunis |
31-May-15
4:1
| EGS Gafsa |
| EGS Gafsa |
28-Dec-14
0:0
| ES Tunis |
| EGS Gafsa |
30-Apr-14
0:2
| ES Tunis |
| ES Tunis |
04-Jan-14
3:0
| EGS Gafsa |
| ES Tunis |
02-May-12
1:0
| EGS Gafsa |
Recent Matches of ES Tunis| 27 Jan | W |
ES Tunis.
|
1:0
| JS Kairouan.
|
| 24 Jan | W |
ES Tunis.
|
1:0
| Simba.
|
Recent Matches of EGS Gafsa
Tunisia - Ligue 1| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
ES Tunis | 30 | 57-22 | 66 |
| 2 |
US | 30 | 42-11 | 62 |
| 3 |
ES Sahel | 30 | 45-24 | 61 |
| 4 |
Club Africain | 30 | 36-19 | 56 |
| 5 |
ES Zarzis | 30 | 38-29 | 54 |
| 6 |
Stade Tunisien | 30 | 29-21 | 49 |
| 7 |
CS Sfaxien | 30 | 31-19 | 44 |
| 8 |
ES Metlaoui | 30 | 32-27 | 43 |
| 9 |
CA Bizertin | 30 | 29-28 | 35 |
| 10 |
US Ben | 30 | 30-34 | 32 |
| 11 |
Olympique | 30 | 19-37 | 29 |
| 12 |
AS Gabes | 30 | 20-38 | 28 |
| 13 |
AS Soliman | 30 | 17-42 | 27 |
| 14 |
Jeunesse Sportive | 30 | 25-46 | 26 |
| 15 |
EGS Gafsa | 30 | 24-43 | 22 |
| 16 |
US Tataouine | 30 | 19-53 | 19 |
