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Match Prediction

Estoril vs Guimaraes Prediction

Finished

Estoril

€33.00m

24 Jan16:30
4 : 2

Guimaraes

€27.60m

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Estoril vs Guimaraes Prediction Primeira Liga

Estoril vs Guimaraes Prediction: Tactical Insights and Betting Tips

The Estoril vs Guimaraes prediction for January 24, 2026, is shaping up to be one of the more intriguing matches of the Primeira Liga’s Round 19. With both teams coming off surprising wins against Braga in recent weeks, fans and punters alike are asking: which side will keep the momentum going? At NerdyTips, we’ve dug into the stats, the tactics, and the all-important betting tips to help you make sense of this encounter.

Recent Form, Head-to-Head, and Team News

If you’re a fan of draws, you might want to look away—these two sides have not shared the spoils in any of their last eight meetings. Guimaraes, or Vitória SC for the purists, have had the better of the head to head, claiming three wins to Estoril’s two in their last five league games. The first leg this season saw Guimaraes edge a five-goal thriller 3-2 at home, underlining just how tight and unpredictable this fixture can be.

  • Estoril have been a bit of a rollercoaster lately. They’ve bagged home wins over Alverca and Braga (the latter at whopping odds of 5.2), but also stumbled against Famalicão and Benfica. Their attack, led by Yanis Begraoui (8 goals), has kept things lively, but defensive lapses have cost them, conceding 29 goals so far. Away from home, Estoril have struggled, notching just one win.
  • Guimaraes are riding high after a League Cup triumph and back-to-back wins over Braga and Sporting CP. Coach Luis Pinto’s side are lauded for their organization, set-piece threat (38% of their chances come from dead balls), and physicality up front. Oumar Camara is the man to watch, both for goals and creativity out wide.

Injuries and suspensions could play a part. Estoril are sweating on the fitness of Xeka and left-back Gonçalo Costa, while Guimaraes will be without Nélson Oliveira and Gustavo Silva. Both sides have a few key players nearing returns, but expect some late fitness tests.

Tactics and What to Watch

Estoril, under Ian Cathro, are trying to blend attacking flair with a bit more steel at the back. João Carvalho is the creative hub, but their tendency to leave gaps when pushing forward has been their undoing. Guimaraes, meanwhile, are all about discipline, set-piece routines, and quick transitions—attributes that have earned them praise from Porto’s coach, Francesco Farioli, who called them “the team in the best form in the League.”

  1. Expect Estoril to shade possession (projected 52%) and try to dictate the tempo at home.
  2. Guimaraes will likely wait for their moments, especially from corners and free-kicks.

Both teams have a market value that reflects their ambitions—Estoril at €33.00m and Guimaraes at €27.60m. Not title contenders, but certainly not here to make up the numbers.

Estoril vs Guimaraes Prediction and Betting Tips: What Does the Data Say?

Now, for the part everyone’s waiting for: the Estoril vs Guimaraes prediction and betting tips. Our AI models, as always, have crunched the numbers so you don’t have to (but you can still take all the credit if your mates ask).

  • Odds: Home win – 2.48, Draw – 3.6, Away win – 3.0. The bookies see this as a near coin-flip, and with good reason.
  • Most promising bet: Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.37, trust score 2.1/10). Both sides have shown attacking intent, but the stats suggest a tight affair—think more chess match than goal-fest.
  • 1X2 Prediction: 1X (Estoril double chance) at 1.375. Our models give Estoril a slight edge at home, but don’t rule out Guimaraes snatching a point.
  • Expected score: 1-1 draw, with a goalless first half. Not the most thrilling prediction, but a likely one given recent trends.
  • Shots and corners: Estoril projected for 12 shots (5 on target), Guimaraes for 13 (3 on target). Corners should be close—5 for Estoril, 4 for Guimaraes.
  • Discipline: Expect a few cards, with Guimaraes perhaps pushing the referee’s patience a little more (2 yellows to Estoril’s 1).

In summary, the Estoril vs Guimaraes prediction points to a balanced contest, with both teams likely to cancel each other out for long spells. If you’re after a safe bet, under 3.5 goals looks good, and 1X (Estoril to avoid defeat) offers decent value. For those feeling lucky, a 1-1 correct score might just be worth a flutter.

Final Thoughts: A Game of Margins

With both sides in decent form and plenty to play for, this Estoril vs Guimaraes prediction is all about the fine details—set pieces, defensive lapses, and maybe a moment of magic from Begraoui or Camara. Keep your eyes peeled, your bets sensible, and your sense of humor intact. After all, football is nothing if not gloriously unpredictable.

For more head to head insights, betting tips, and predictions, stick with NerdyTips—where the stats meet the stories.

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Warning

Estoril didn't play better in the last H2H match!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Estoril vs Guimaraes

U3.5 -270

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -270
2/10

1x2 Tip

1X -213

Estoril to win or draw
2/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -270

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
2/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes -141

Both teams are expected to score
2/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U4.5 -137

Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

1:1

Stats Predictions

1.61
xG
1.11
52%
Ball Possession
48%
12
Total Shots
13
5
Shots on Goal
3
3
Shots Off Goal
6
5
Corners
4
1
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

1.46
Expected Goals
1.19
4
Total Goals
2.1
2.3
Goals Scored
1.1
1.7
Goals Against
1
49%
Possession
52%
12.6
Total Shots
13.3
4.9
Shots on Goal
3.7
4.1
Shots off Goal
6.3
13
Fouls
17.5
5.5
Corners
4.9
1.3
Offsides
1.1
2
Yellow Cards
2.71
449
Total Passes
359

Overview Last 10 Matches

5
Wins
5
8
Over 1.5 Goals
5
8
Over 2.5 Goals
5
7
Over 3.5 Goals
2
5
Both Teams Scored
5
1
Unexpected Wins
3
0
Unexpected Loses
1

Head to Head

Estoril
5 - 4 - 12
Guimaraes
Guimaraes Guimaraes 16-Aug-25
3:2
Estoril Estoril
Estoril Estoril 26-Jan-25
1:0
Guimaraes Guimaraes
Guimaraes Guimaraes 18-Aug-24
1:0
Estoril Estoril
Estoril Estoril 02-Mar-24
1:3
Guimaraes Guimaraes
Guimaraes Guimaraes 01-Oct-23
3:2
Estoril Estoril
Estoril Estoril 04-Feb-23
0:1
Guimaraes Guimaraes
Guimaraes Guimaraes 14-Aug-22
1:0
Estoril Estoril
Guimaraes Guimaraes 23-Jan-22
3:1
Estoril Estoril
Estoril Estoril 13-Aug-21
0:0
Guimaraes Guimaraes
Guimaraes Guimaraes 21-Jan-18
3:1
Estoril Estoril

Profile time Recent Matches of Estoril

15 Mar Nacional Nacional - Estoril Estoril -
07 MarD Estoril Estoril 0 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0
27 FebL Sporting CP Sporting CP 3 Estoril Estoril 0
22 FebW Estoril Estoril 3 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 1
15 FebL AFS AFS 3 Estoril Estoril 0
07 FebD Estoril Estoril 2 Tondela Tondela 2
31 JanW Santa Clara Santa Clara 2 Estoril Estoril 4
24 JanW Estoril Estoril 4 Guimaraes Guimaraes 2
19 JanW Estrela Estrela 0 Estoril Estoril 5
03 JanL Benfica Benfica 3 Estoril Estoril 1

Profile time Recent Matches of Guimaraes

14 MarGuimaraes Guimaraes - Famalicao Famalicao -
08 MarLSanta Clara Santa Clara 2 Guimaraes Guimaraes 0
28 FebDGuimaraes Guimaraes 1 Alverca Alverca 1
21 FebLBraga Braga 3 Guimaraes Guimaraes 2
14 FebWGuimaraes Guimaraes 2 Estrela Estrela 1
07 FebLArouca Arouca 3 Guimaraes Guimaraes 2
30 JanWGuimaraes Guimaraes 1 Moreirense Moreirense 0
24 JanLEstoril Estoril 4 Guimaraes Guimaraes 2
18 JanLGuimaraes Guimaraes 0 FC Porto FC Porto 1
10 JanWGuimaraes Guimaraes 2 Braga Braga 1

Portugal - Primeira Liga Portugal - Primeira Liga

Team Matches Goals Points
1 FC Porto FC Porto25
49-10
66
2 Sporting CP Sporting CP25
64-14
62
3 Benfica Benfica25
53-16
59
4 SC Braga SC Braga25
52-25
46
5 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente25
37-25
41
6 Famalicao Famalicao25
30-21
39
7 Moreirense Moreirense25
31-35
35
8 Estoril Estoril25
46-42
34
9 Guimaraes Guimaraes25
28-37
32
10 Alverca Alverca25
24-39
28
11 Arouca Arouca25
32-53
26
12 Estrela Estrela25
28-43
25
13 Casa Pia Casa Pia25
26-44
24
14 Rio Ave Rio Ave25
24-44
24
15 Nacional Nacional25
29-37
22
16 Santa Clara Santa Clara25
22-31
22
17 Tondela Tondela25
19-39
19
18 AVS AVS25
18-57
10
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