Estoril vs Tondela Prediction

Estoril vs Tondela prediction: points, pressure, and goals

Estoril vs Tondela prediction time arrives on 2026-02-07 (kickoff 18:00 GMT) at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, and it feels like one of those Matchday 21 nights where both teams want the same thing for very different reasons. Estoril sit 8th with 29 points and keep looking up toward the top six, while Tondela are 17th on 13 points, doing the math every week and not enjoying it. In other words: one team is shopping for Europe, the other is shopping for oxygen.

Story so far: form, stakes, and a few loud surprises

Estoril come in flying, with four wins in their last five (W-W-W-L-W). They have been fun for neutral fans and annoying for defenders, fresh off a 4–2 win away at Santa Clara and with recent matches featuring plenty of goals. That confidence didn’t appear out of thin air either: back on 2025.42-19, Estoril beat Braga 1–0 despite being priced at 5.4, the kind of result that convinces a squad they can punch above their weight.

Tondela, meanwhile, have had a rough stretch (D-L-L-L-W if you read it one way, but the big headline is the last game). On 2026-02-01 they held Benfica to a shocking 0–0 draw at odds around 12.5. Their keeper Lucas Cañizares played hero, and Cristiano Bacci spoke afterward about “confidence and self-belief” being the new fuel. It’s the classic relegation-zone recipe: suffer, scrap, and hope your goalkeeper doesn’t need new gloves every 10 minutes.

Tactics and team notes to know before betting

Ian Cathro’s Estoril usually aim to control the ball and attack with speed, especially through Rafik Guitane out wide, with João Carvalho acting as the creative hub. Yanis Begraoui (11 league goals) is the headline finisher, with Alejandro Marqués another option when Estoril turn up the pressure.

Tondela are expected to keep the disciplined 4-2-3-1 that worked against Benfica: a low block, short distances, and quick breaks. Pedro Henrique (3 goals) carries a big share of their scoring burden, while Jordan Siebatcheu offers a more direct, physical route when they need to escape their own half.

• Injuries: Estoril are relatively stable, though André Lacximicant and Or Israelov are sidelined. Tondela have bigger concerns, with Ivan Cavaleiro and Rony Lopes doubtful, plus Emmanuel Maviram and Joe Hodge monitored after the Benfica match.
• Head to head: Estoril have generally had the edge in this fixture, including a 1–0 win in their last meeting on 2022-02-12.

Betting odds and what they suggest

The betting odds lean home: Estoril win 1.73, draw 3.85, Tondela win 5.4. That pricing matches the table, the squad values (€33.00m vs €20.25m), and Estoril’s stronger attacking rhythm. Still, Tondela’s Benfica clean sheet is the little voice saying, “Don’t get too comfortable.”

Our AI picks: Estoril vs Tondela prediction and best tips

Now to the numbers that matter for bettors on NerdyTips. The top 1X2 tip is simple and confident: home win.

• Best 1X2 bet: Estoril to win (1) at 1.73, confidence/trust 10.0/10 (NerdyTips’ AI also picks 1 at 1.73 with trust 10.0).
• Goals bet: Over 1.5 total goals at 1.26, trust 6.9.

These tips connect well with the match model: Estoril are forecast to have 64% possession, 13 shots to Tondela’s 7, and 5 shots on target to just 1. That’s the profile of a home team that spends more time asking questions than answering them.

Correct score lean

The predicted final score is 3–1, with a 1–0 half-time. Corners are expected to be even (4–4, total 8), while cards lean toward Tondela (3 vs 1), which fits a game plan built on blocking lanes and stopping breaks.

Estoril vs Tondela prediction summary: take the home win if you want the main angle, consider over 1.5 total goals if you prefer a safer goals line, and keep the head to head trend in mind. The only thing Tondela will happily park is the bus—and Estoril look well equipped to find the keys.