Everton vs Bournemouth Prediction

Everton vs Bournemouth prediction: goals and tension at Bramley-Moore

The Everton vs Bournemouth prediction for Tuesday, 10 February 2026 (kickoff 19:30 GMT) comes with a fresh backdrop: Everton’s Hill Dickinson Stadium at Bramley-Moore Dock hosting one of its early big night games under the lights. Both sides arrive confident, both are hard to beat lately, and the betting odds suggest a tight one where small moments could decide everything.

Match context, form, and why this feels like a trap

Everton sit 8th on 37 points, Bournemouth are 11th on 34, and neither team is entering this fixture in a hurry to hit the panic button. In fact, both are riding a five-match unbeaten run in the Premier League, which explains why the market is cautious despite the home advantage.

Everton: Moyes has built the base, now he wants the finish

David Moyes has made Everton look organised again: compact without the ball, direct when the moment is right. Their defensive numbers back it up too—only three teams have conceded fewer than Everton’s 28 league goals so far. The Toffees have recently shown they can win ugly away from home as well, including that eyebrow-raising 0-1 at Aston Villa on 18 January when they were priced at 6.25.

• Likely setup: 4-4-1-1 or 4-5-1, disciplined mid-block, fast transitions.
• Main routes forward: Iliman Ndiaye between the lines and Dwight McNeil delivering from wide areas.
• Extra edge: a sell-out at the new stadium tends to add energy, but it can also add nerves.

Bournemouth: Iraola’s intensity, even with a patched-up midfield

Andoni Iraola has Bournemouth playing with a clear identity: press hard, move the ball quickly, and try to control tempo through aggression rather than slow possession. Even after selling Antoine Semenyo to Manchester City in January, they have stayed productive going forward. The concern is away defending—reports point to 30 goals conceded on the road—which can turn “we’re in control” into “why is this suddenly 2-2?” very fast.

• Likely plan: keep the press, accept risk, and play through Everton’s wide areas.
• Attacking focus: Evanilson as a reference point; Kroupi remains the main goal threat (8 goals).
• Form snapshot: that wild 3-3 at Newcastle on 10 January (priced 5.2) showed they can trade punches with anyone.

Team news that matters for sports betting

In sports betting, injuries are often the quiet reason odds move late. Everton’s big problem is a headline one, while Bournemouth’s looks more like a numbers issue in midfield.

• Everton absences: Jack Grealish is out (stress fracture, likely season-ending).
• Everton maybes: Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall has been managing a hamstring issue; Vitalii Mykolenko is confirmed fit.
• Everton new face: Tyrique George (loan from Chelsea) could make a home debut, offering pace off the wing.
• Bournemouth absences: Kluivert, Adams, Tavernier, Gannon-Doak and Soler are all sidelined (midfield depth takes a hit).
• Bournemouth boost: January signing Rayan scored last time out; Alejandro Jimenez is expected to be okay after a late knock.

Head to head notes: Bournemouth have enjoyed this trip

The head to head angle is awkward for Everton. Bournemouth have reportedly won on their last three visits to Everton, outscoring them 8-2 across those games. And in the most recent meeting listed (26 July 2025), Bournemouth won 0-3. It doesn’t guarantee anything on Tuesday, but it does explain why many bettors treat “home advantage” here with a raised eyebrow.

One more subplot: Dwight McNeil is under extra attention after a deadline-day move to Crystal Palace collapsed on 2 February. Nights like this can make a player either very sharp… or very rushed.

AI match prediction, betting odds, and best bets

Now to the numbers. The main 1X2 betting odds are: Everton 2.47, Draw 3.45, Bournemouth 3.0. That pricing says Everton are favoured, but not strongly—more “slight lean” than “clear call.” Our model agrees that this is not a high-certainty 1X2 spot.

1X2 prediction: Draw (X) is the model lean

Our AI-generated Everton vs Bournemouth prediction for 1X2 favours X (Draw) with odds 3.45, but the trust is low (2.0). In other words: the draw is the best fit for the data, yet it’s not a match to go heavy on in the 1X2 market.

• AI 1X2 pick: Draw (X)
• Trust: 2.0
• Odds: 3.45

Main AI tip: Over 1.5 goals looks safer than picking a winner

The best tip from our system is Over 1.5 goals (at least two total goals), priced at 1.28, with confidence 4.9/10. That sits well with the match story: Everton are strong at the back, but Bournemouth tend to create volume and can be messy away. Add a new-stadium night atmosphere and two teams in good form, and the game can open up after the first goal.

• Best bet: Over 1.5 goals
• Odds: 1.28
• Confidence: 4.9/10

Predicted scoreline, halftime lean, and what the stats suggest

The model projects a lively one: final score 2-2, with Bournemouth leading 0-1 at the break. The match stats projection supports that idea of Bournemouth having more of the ball and more attempts, while Everton stay competitive and look to strike in transitions.

• Predicted final score: 2-2
• Predicted halftime score: 0-1
• Projected possession: Everton 45% / Bournemouth 55%
• Total shots: Everton 12 / Bournemouth 16
• Shots on target: Everton 3 / Bournemouth 6
• Corners: Everton 3 / Bournemouth 9 (12 total)
• Yellow cards: Everton 0 / Bournemouth 1

How to read the value and market context

Squad value is close—Everton at €423.65m versus Bournemouth at €447.10m—so there’s no “giant vs underdog” dynamic here. That fits the current betting odds and also fits the AI’s cautious 1X2 stance. If you want a simple angle for sports betting, the totals market is where the model is most comfortable.

NerdyTips-style takeaway

• Best pick: Over 1.5 goals (1.28)
• Higher-risk lean: Draw (3.45), but with low trust
• Story of the game: Bournemouth edge the shot count, Everton stay in it, and the scoreboard keeps moving

Final note for readers building slips: because the Everton vs Bournemouth prediction points to goals and a balanced 1X2, this is a match where “right bet, wrong team” is very possible—so keep stakes sensible and let the data do the heavy lifting.