Everton vs Manchester United Prediction

Everton vs Manchester United prediction for Carrick’s first trip

The Everton vs Manchester United prediction for Monday Night Football comes with a bit of history attached: this is United’s first-ever visit to Everton’s new Hill Dickinson Stadium, kicking off at 20:00 GMT on 2026-02-23. It is also the kind of fixture where context matters as much as odds: David Moyes’ Everton have been stubborn, structured, and occasionally self-sabotaging late on, while Michael Carrick’s Manchester United have been steady in results but rarely calm away from home.

Match context, venue notes, and key staff angles

Everton’s new home has not turned into an automatic points machine yet, and that adds a little tension to a big night under the lights. Sky Sports has it as the main Monday slot, Darren England takes the whistle, and both managers arrive with storylines that influence how we read the betting markets.

• Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool (first United visit)
• Date/time: Monday, Feb 23, 2026, 20:00 GMT
• Referee: Darren England
• Manager spotlight: Carrick remains caretaker after Ruben Amorim’s sacking; his next 12 games are basically his job interview

Team news that shapes the likely game plan

Availability points toward a match where Everton may need to create chances the hard way, while United look stronger in central areas and transitions.

Everton injuries and selection notes

Moyes has to reshuffle, especially with one suspension and one season-ending absence affecting the balance between control and creativity.

• Jack Grealish: out for the season (stress fracture surgery)
• Jake O’Brien: suspended (straight red vs Bournemouth)
• Iliman Ndiaye: expected to be in contention after a knock (injections to speed up return)
• Nathan Patterson: progressing, but likely not ready to start

Manchester United injuries and selection notes

United’s best boost is in defense, where one returning leader can change their set-piece and box defending. There are still doubts elsewhere.

• Harry Maguire: back in full training and expected to start
• Mason Mount: expected available after a minor knock
• Matthijs de Ligt: major doubt (back issue), still yet to feature in 2026
• Patrick Dorgu: out (hamstring)
• Harry Amass: returned from loan for hamstring treatment

Form guide, table pressure, and why it matters for betting

Everton sit 8th and look well-coached, but their home record has not fully matched their league position. United are 4th, unbeaten in nine league games, and still have that “win even when messy” feel under Carrick.

• Everton (8th): only four home wins all season; recently lost 2-1 to Bournemouth
• Everton highlight: a morale-lifting 0-1 away win at Aston Villa (2026-01-18) at big odds (6.25)
• Man United (4th): nine-match unbeaten run; recent 1-1 draw with West Ham ended a four-game win streak
• Away defense trend: United have not kept a clean sheet in 13 straight away league matches

That last bullet is the quiet driver behind goals-based betting tips here. United can be the better side and still concede, which keeps Everton alive longer than the market price suggests.

Tactical matchup: low block vs double pivot

Moyes has leaned into a disciplined low block and Everton have outperformed their expected goals against by more than 10 goals this season. In plain terms: they make shots difficult, protect the middle, and ask opponents to be patient. Without Grealish, Everton’s creation is more direct, with Thierno Barry (five goals in his last 10) and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall carrying much of the attacking responsibility.

Carrick has stabilized United with a Casemiro–Kobbie Mainoo double pivot, which helps them control the second ball and launch transitions quickly. There is also some noise around Benjamin Sesko’s recent lack of starts, but regardless of personnel, the pattern is clear: United are happy to win territory fast, then attack in waves.

Head to head: recent results and the “remember last time” factor

On the psychological side, Everton already proved they can frustrate United this season, winning 1-0 at Old Trafford in November 2025. The most recent listed head to head meeting (2025-02-22) finished 2-2, a reminder that this fixture can swing late and does not always follow pre-match logic.

• Last H2H (2025-02-22): Everton 2-2 Man United
• Reverse fixture (Nov 2025): Man United 0-1 Everton

Everton vs Manchester United prediction: odds, picks, and score call

Now for the betting view. The market leans United, and the squad value gap hints why: Everton are valued at €423.65m, United at €719.15m. But form, styles, and that away clean-sheet drought keep the “United win, both teams involved” angle firmly in play for anyone building betting tips.

1X2 odds and what they imply

These prices point to United as the likely winner, with the draw not far behind and Everton priced as outsiders.

• Home win: 3.7
• Draw: 3.9
• Away win: 2.0

Our main betting tips from the model

We are aligning the safest pick with the match narrative: Everton can defend deep and compete, but United’s midfield control and chance volume should carry them away from trouble more often than not.

• Top value safety pick: X2 (United win or draw) at 1.33, trust level 8.5/10
• Main 1X2 call: 2 (United win) at 2.0, confidence 8.0/10

This is also where the head to head trend connects: Everton have shown they can nick tight games, so X2 protects you from the exact script that played out at Old Trafford in November.

Goals market: Over 2.5 with a warning label

The model leans to Over 2.5 goals at 1.72, but the confidence is only 2.7/10. That low confidence makes sense: Everton’s low block and Moyes’ preference for control can slow tempo, yet United’s away matches have been leaky enough to turn one Everton goal into a game state that opens up.

• Over 2.5 goals: 1.72 (confidence 2.7/10)

Predicted match flow: possession, shots, and discipline

The projected numbers paint a familiar picture: United doing more of the ball work and more of the shooting, Everton aiming to stay compact and efficient.

• Possession: Everton 43% vs Man United 57%
• Total shots: Everton 10 vs Man United 15
• Shots on target: Everton 3 vs Man United 5
• Corners: 6 total (3-3 split)
• Yellow cards: Everton 1, Man United 1

If those shot totals land close, it supports the 1X2 “2” pick: more volume, more box entries, and more second chances usually win out over 90 minutes, even if it is not pretty.

Correct score and half-time lean

Our Everton vs Manchester United prediction finishes with a tight, controlled first half before the game opens after the break.

• Half-time: 0-0
• Full-time: 1-2

Final word for bettors

If you want the conservative angle, X2 fits the form, the table, and the projected chance count. If you want the straightforward stance, United to win at 2.0 matches both the model and the market direction. For goals bettors, Over 2.5 is playable, but the low confidence says to keep stakes sensible. Either way, this head to head has a habit of staying alive longer than expected, so do not be shocked if it takes United a while to turn control into separation.