Eyupspor vs Basaksehir Prediction

Eyupspor vs Basaksehir prediction: goals edge the story

The Eyupspor vs Basaksehir prediction for Sunday, February 8, 2026 (kickoff 11:30 GMT) sits right in the middle of an Istanbul derby that quietly matters a lot: Eyüpspor trying to stay clear of trouble, Başakşehir trying to keep Europe in sight. Even the setting has a “temporary chapter” feel, with Eyüpspor hosting at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu while their own ground is still being upgraded.

Match context: pressure at both ends of the table

Going into this one, Başakşehir are 6th with 30 points, while Eyüpspor are 15th on 18 points. That gap shows up in more than just the standings: it’s also there in squad depth and market value, with Eyüpspor listed at €17.15m and Başakşehir at €69.70m. On paper, it’s a mismatch. In reality, Istanbul games have a habit of ignoring paper.

Eyüpspor: low block, quick breaks, and a few worries

Arda Turan’s Eyüpspor have had a stop-start run (D-W-D-L-L), and the bigger issue has been output: around 0.8 goals per match. Their approach often makes sense for their situation—stay compact, keep the xGA respectable, and try to steal moments in transition rather than chase long spells of possession.

Team news worth noting

• Defensive absences hurt: Luccas Claro remains out with a long-term ACL injury.
• Midfield experience missing: Taras Stepanenko is sidelined with a muscle issue (not expected back until mid-February).
• Possible boost: Emre Akbaba has been recovering from a muscle strain and may feature in limited minutes.
• Threats up front: Umut Bozok leads the line, while Mame Thiam is the transition danger.

And just when confidence needed oxygen, Eyüpspor went and did something bold: they won away at Alanyaspor on 2026-01-31, a 1-3 result when the win price was 6.25. That’s the kind of match that doesn’t fix everything—but it does change the mood in training.

Başakşehir: possession, central attacks, and a striker in form

Çağdaş Atan’s Başakşehir arrive in better rhythm (L-W-D-W-W), typically leaning on patient possession, short passing, and a preference for working through the middle. They’ve been particularly strong on the road lately, winning three of their last four away matches, often with room to spare.

Key names and availability

• Goal threat: Eldor Shomurodov leads the league scoring with 13 goals and averages 1.7 shots on target per match.
• Midfield engine: Miguel Crespo has five assists and keeps the tempo moving.
• Injuries: Leo Duarte is out with a muscle injury (targeting mid-February).
• Doubt: Festy Ebosele is questionable after a knee knock.

There’s also a neat subplot: Turan facing a club from his past, while Atan talks up European ambitions and expects a physical test. It’s the kind of game where Başakşehir want calm control—and Eyüpspor want discomfort.

Head to head: tight history, but one clear trend

In head to head terms, this fixture has often been tense: four draws in the last six meetings across competitions. But the other trend is even louder—Eyüpspor have never beaten Başakşehir in a professional league match (0 wins in 6). Their most recent meeting on 2025-03-31 ended 1-3 to Başakşehir, a reminder that when the visitors click, they can turn small edges into goals.

Betting odds: the market leans hard to the visitors

The current 1X2 betting odds frame this as a Başakşehir job:

• Home win: 5.9
• Draw: 3.75
• Away win: 1.7

Those prices reflect the table gap, the squad value gap, and Başakşehir’s recent away control. Still, the “draw specialist” history is the little voice telling bettors not to get lazy.

Our AI picks: where the value sits in total goals

Now to the numbers-driven angle of this Eyupspor vs Basaksehir prediction. While the 1X2 market points to the away side, our strongest recommendation is about total goals.

Best bet (AI): Over 1.5 goals

• Tip: Over 1.5 total goals
• Odds: 1.24
• Confidence: 8.0/10

The logic connects neatly with the match script: Başakşehir are projected to have more of the ball (60%) and more punch (14 shots, 6 on target). That kind of pressure usually creates at least two goals worth of chances across 90 minutes—especially against an Eyüpspor back line missing key pieces.

1X2 prediction: away win

• Pick: 2 (Başakşehir win)
• Odds: 1.7
• Trust rating: 6.8

The trust level is a touch lower than the goals pick, which fits the story: Eyüpspor can be stubborn in a low block, and the head to head draw pattern is real. But if Başakşehir score first, their control style tends to make the next hour feel very long for the opponent.

Projected match flow and score picks

Stats-based expectations point to a game played mostly in Eyüpspor territory, with Başakşehir creating the cleaner looks:

• Projected possession: 40% Eyüpspor vs 60% Başakşehir
• Expected shots: 9 vs 14
• Shots on target: 3 vs 6
• Total corners: 5 (2 vs 3)
• Yellow cards: 1 vs 2

Correct score lean

• Half-time: 0-1
• Full-time: 1-2

A 1-2 away win is consistent with the betting odds, the shot projections, and the idea that Eyüpspor can still land a punch—especially if Thiam finds space on the break. But overall, the cleanest angle remains simple: back over 1.5 goals and let the match dynamics do the rest.