Fenerbahce vs Nottingham Forest Prediction

Fenerbahce vs Nottingham Forest prediction for Europa League

The Fenerbahce vs Nottingham Forest prediction for February 19, 2026 (17:45 GMT) comes with the kind of subplot writers usually save for TV: a new Forest boss, a loud Istanbul night, and a two-leg tie where the first mistake can feel like a season. This is the UEFA Europa League knockout stage play-off first leg at Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium, currently branded as the Chobani Stadium, and it is the first competitive head to head between these clubs.

Context, coaches, and the Istanbul return story

Nottingham Forest arrive after a week of turbulence. On February 12, the club removed Sean Dyche following a 0-0 with Wolves, and appointed Vítor Pereira—Forest’s fourth manager of the 2025–26 season. Pereira’s first match is away to Fenerbahçe, where he has already had two spells in charge. Returning to Istanbul as the visiting manager is not a gentle reintroduction to work; it is more like a final exam set by a noisy crowd.

Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, look steadier under Domenico Tedesco, who took over from José Mourinho earlier in the campaign and has been credited with tactical flexibility and quick integration of winter additions.

Form guide and what it suggests for the game

Fenerbahçe are flying domestically: second in the Süper Lig, three points off Galatasaray, and unbeaten in five (four wins and a draw). At home they often dominate territory and tempo, regularly pushing possession above 60%.

Forest’s league situation is far less comfortable. They sit 17th in the Premier League, only three points above the drop. Still, Europe has offered relief: 13th in the league phase, ending it with a statement 4-0 win over Ferencváros.

Team news: who shapes the tactics?

• Fenerbahçe strengthened in January with N’Golo Kanté and Matteo Guendouzi, adding control and bite.
• Creative threats include Anderson Talisca and Marco Asensio, with Fred helping the rhythm in midfield.
• Kerem Aktürkoğlu has been sharp in front of goal, recently scoring twice in the league.
• Forest miss key defenders: Murillo (calf) is out, and Willy Boly is ruled out for the season (knee).
• Forest’s European top scorer is Igor Jesus (six), while Morgan Gibbs-White remains the main creator. New keeper Stefan Ortega is expected to start.

How the match may be played

Tedesco’s Fenerbahçe typically press high and try to own the ball, stretching teams with wide runners and then letting Talisca and Asensio find pockets. Pereira is expected to move Forest away from Dyche’s stricter patterns toward something more fluid, but injuries at the back hint at a cautious, counter-focused plan in Istanbul—survive first, then open up at the City Ground.

There is also the travel and security story around the away support, with strict protocols and a post-match hold-back inside the stadium. It all adds to the sense that this is more than “just another Thursday.”

AI tips, betting odds, and NerdyTips match prediction

For sports betting purposes, the betting odds read: Home win 2.3, Draw 3.4, Away win 3.2. Despite Forest’s higher squad value (€591.60m vs €236.50m), the market leans Fenerbahçe at home—very much in line with their domestic form and Istanbul advantage.

Our key angles from the numbers

• Possession projection: Fenerbahçe 55% vs Forest 45%—a smaller edge than their usual home dominance, suggesting Forest may compete better for phases.
• Shots estimate: Fenerbahçe 11, Forest 13, with 4 on target each—quantity for Forest, but similar finishing opportunities.
• Corners: 5-5 (10 total), pointing to wing play and sustained pressure at both ends.
• Cards: Fenerbahçe 3 yellows vs Forest 1—often the profile of a home side pressing and stopping counters.

Best tip: goals market

NerdyTips’ AI points to over 1.5 goals as the best tip at 1.32, confidence 4.9/10. That trust level is moderate, but it matches the tactical picture: Fenerbahçe’s front-end talent plus Forest’s defensive absences should create enough chances for at least two goals, even if Forest set up conservatively. If this turns into a tense chess match, it still only takes one set-piece and one transition to cash it.

1X2 call and correct score lean

Our 1X2 approach is 1X at 1.39, with a low trust level (2.0). That caution is fair: new-manager games can be unpredictable, and Forest already showed they can frustrate big opponents—Arsenal were expected to win on 2026-01-17, yet Forest held them to a shocking 0-0, with long-shot odds (6.5) making it even louder. Still, as a first-leg plan, “avoid defeat” for the hosts fits both the data and the atmosphere.

Lean scoreline: 2-0, with 1-0 at the break. It is a clean narrative: Fenerbahçe start fast, use the crowd, and try to make the second leg uncomfortable for Forest—while Pereira learns, in real time, that Istanbul rarely offers a quiet first day at the office.