Ferencvaros vs Ujpest Prediction

Ferencvaros vs Ujpest prediction: derby tension, clear odds

If you’re looking for a Ferencvaros vs Ujpest prediction that balances derby emotion with betting logic, this one has it all. On 2026-02-07 (16:00 GMT), The Derbi returns to the Groupama Aréna, and it’s not just another league game—Budapest stops, stares, and remembers every old story these two clubs have written.

Budapest Derby context: why this game always feels bigger

Ferencváros vs Újpest is one of those fixtures where the table matters… but history matters more. It’s a rivalry with deep roots, and lately it has leaned heavily one way. Újpest haven’t beaten Ferencváros in a league derby since December 2015, a run that has stretched across more than 30 NB I meetings. That “curse” is part of the background noise before the first whistle.

The setting fits the occasion: Groupama Aréna (around 23,700 seats), choreographies from both ends, and the kind of matchday security planning you only see for the highest-risk games. Even the travel logistics get special treatment, with controlled transport measures used to keep things calm outside the stadium.

Team news and the human side of the tactics

Ferencváros (FTC) come in with the familiar expectation of controlling the game at home, but the mood isn’t completely relaxed. Robbie Keane has been pushing “intensity” and “mentality” as FTC juggle league priorities with European demands. That matters in a derby: legs can be heavy, and patience gets tested fast.

Ferencváros: small changes, same idea

Keane generally sets FTC up in a 4-2-3-1, pressing high and trying to win the ball in good areas so the attacks start quickly. The plan is usually simple: force mistakes, play forward early, and keep opponents pinned back.

• Absences: Stefan Gartenmann is out injured, and Tom Raemaekers misses out through suspension (yellow-card accumulation).
• Forward line: With Barnabás Varga having moved to AEK Athens in January, the main striker spot is up for grabs. Bamidele Yusuf, Zsombor Gruber, and Leny Joseph are all pushing for minutes.
• Return boost: Krisztián Lisztes is fit again, but likely starts on the bench while he builds match rhythm.

Újpest: new faces, new leaders, same tough job

Újpest arrive in a rebuild. Zoltán Szélesi took over in late December 2025, and Pál Dárdai stepping in as Sporting Director on January 1 added a strong identity to the project. They’re trying to become harder to beat first—then better with the ball.

• Potential debut: German midfielder Arne Maier (signed from FC Augsburg on February 1) could feature, giving Újpest more control and calmer passing under pressure.
• Added striker option: Nejc Gradišar has arrived on loan from Al Ahly to offer more presence inside the box—exactly what Dárdai pointed to when speaking about needing extra penalty-area threat.
• Fitness doubt: Fran Brodic has been dealing with pubic bone irritation and remains questionable.

Recent form and how it shapes the match story

FTC sit 3rd, but their recent results have been a bit bumpy by their standards. A heavy Europa League loss to Nottingham Forest (4-0 on Jan 29) and a 3-1 domestic defeat to ETO Győr are not what you’d call perfect derby preparation. Still, sometimes the derby is the reset button—especially at home, with a crowd that expects front-foot football.

Újpest (9th) are still searching for consistency and recently drew 1-1 with Nyíregyháza Spartacus. Under the new staff, a cautious 4-2-3-1 is likely, with more protection in front of the back line and quick counters when FTC push numbers forward.

Head to head: recent pattern favors FTC

The head to head picture is hard to ignore. The last recorded meeting you gave (2025-04-06) ended Ferencváros 2-0 Újpest, and even the market reflected that imbalance, with FTC priced at 1.34 and Újpest at 7.5 that day. It’s been a familiar script: FTC control more, create more, and Újpest spend long spells defending.

One more detail worth keeping in mind: both sides have shown they can “beat the odds” mentally. FTC’s 1-1 away draw at Fenerbahçe (2025-11-27) came with massive pre-match odds of 6.9, and Újpest also pulled a surprise 1-1 away draw at Puskás Akadémia (2024-11-02) priced around 5.0. So yes, surprises happen—just not often in this particular derby.

Betting odds: the market leans heavily to the home side

The betting odds are pretty direct:

• Home win: 1.5
• Draw: 4.4
• Away win: 6.25

Those numbers basically say: “FTC should win, and if they don’t, it’s probably because the derby got messy rather than because Újpest were clearly better.” It also fits the financial reality—FTC’s squad value is listed at €41.25m versus Újpest at €14.88m. Money doesn’t score goals, but depth helps, especially late in games.

Our Ferencvaros vs Ujpest prediction (AI tips & stats)

Now for the NerdyTips angle. Our Ferencvaros vs Ujpest prediction lines up with both the odds and the expected match pattern: FTC to control the ball, take more shots, and keep Újpest away from danger areas for long stretches.

Best bet: 1 (Ferencváros to win)

• Tip: 1 (home win)
• Confidence: 7.2/10
• Odds: 1.5

This is also our 1x2 pick: 1 with a trust level of 7.2 at 1.5. The logic is consistent: the head to head trend, the squad-value gap, and the projected in-game stats all point the same way.

Total goals lean: Under 3.5 goals

• Tip: Under 3.5 total goals
• Trust: 4.8
• Odds: 1.55

This one is a softer lean (lower trust), but it matches the expected game shape: FTC on top, Újpest cautious. Derbies can be physical, stop-start, and a bit tense—sometimes that kills the rhythm needed for a 4-goal game.

Projected match stats that support the story

The numbers suggest a game played mostly on Újpest’s side of the pitch:

• Ball possession: 64% Ferencváros vs 36% Újpest
• Total shots: 14 vs 8
• Shots on target: 4 vs 2
• Corners: 7 vs 2 (9 total)
• Yellow cards: 1 vs 2

If FTC really do win the corner count 7-2 and keep the on-target shots advantage, it usually means a “controlled win” rather than a wild shootout—again pointing toward the under on total goals and toward the home win.

Correct score picks: what our model expects

• Full-time predicted score: 2:0
• Half-time predicted score: 1:0

A 1-0 at the break fits the derby pattern: early pressure from FTC, Újpest trying to survive the first wave, and the game opening slightly if FTC get ahead. If Újpest are still integrating new pieces (like Maier and Gradišar), a structured 2-0 is a realistic outcome.

Final betting takeaway

If you want the simple version, the Ferencvaros vs Ujpest prediction is built around FTC doing what they usually do in this fixture: control possession, win territory, and turn that into enough clear chances to get the job done. The safest narrative is an FTC win in a match that stays under control rather than exploding into a goal-fest.

• Main pick: Ferencváros to win (1) @ 1.5
• Secondary lean: Under 3.5 total goals @ 1.55
• Score call: 2:0 (HT 1:0)