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Match Prediction

Flamengo vs Bahia Prediction

Finished
Brazil flag Brazil
Serie A

Flamengo

€219.15m

11 May01:00
1 : 0

Bahia

€92.00m

Preview

Flamengo vs Bahia Prediction Serie A

Flamengo vs Bahia Prediction: Can the Home Side Extend Their Dominance?

When Flamengo vs Bahia takes center stage at the iconic Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, expect fireworks. This Serie A clash pits two top-six contenders against each other, with just three places and two points separating them in the table. Flamengo, sitting comfortably in 3rd with 14 points, will look to flex their financial muscle (€219.15m squad value) against a spirited Bahia side (€92.00m) fresh off a stunning away win over Palmeiras. Our Flamengo vs Bahia prediction dives deep into the stats, trends, and betting angles to help you make the smartest wagers.

Why Flamengo Are the Clear Favorites

The numbers don’t lie—Flamengo are heavy favorites for a reason. The bookmakers have priced a home win at 1.4, a draw at 4.5, and a Bahia upset at a lofty 8.0. NerdyTips’ AI agrees, handing Flamengo a perfect 10.0/10 trust rating for the 1x2 market. Here’s why:

  • Possession dominance: Flamengo are expected to control 67% of the ball, suffocating Bahia’s chances.
  • Attacking firepower: 15 total shots (5 on target) forecasted, compared to Bahia’s meager 6 (2 on goal).
  • Set-piece edge: 7 corners predicted for Flamengo vs Bahia’s 2, adding another scoring avenue.

Their last head-to-head meeting (September 2024) ended 1-0 to Flamengo, and while the odds were tighter then (1.95 vs 3.88), the outcome suggests a pattern. Bahia’s recent shock 1-0 win over Palmeiras (at 5.0 odds) proves they’re no pushovers, but Flamengo’s home advantage and superior squad depth tilt the scales.

Key Betting Tips and Market Insights

For those eyeing the betting tips, NerdyTips’ top recommendation is straightforward: back Flamengo to win (1.4 odds). But let’s explore the finer details:

Scoreline and Half-Time Predictions

Our algorithm forecasts a 2-1 Flamengo victory, with a 1-0 lead at halftime. This aligns with Serie A trends, where:

  • Home teams win 41.3% of matches (away wins: just 21.0%).
  • Both teams score in only 40.9% of games, but Flamengo’s leakier defense might allow Bahia a consolation.

Under/Over and Discipline

The under 3.5 goals market (1.3 odds, 4.8/10 trust) looks solid, given that only 16.5% of Serie A games exceed 3.5 goals. Expect a tactical battle with:

  • Fewer yellows: Flamengo (1), Bahia (2).
  • Controlled aggression, given what’s at stake.

Final Thoughts: Trust the Data, But Expect a Fight

While Flamengo’s financial might and home dominance make them the smart pick, Bahia’s recent giant-killing act against Palmeiras is a reminder that football loves an underdog. Still, the stats paint a clear picture: Flamengo’s possession, shot volume, and set-piece superiority should prevail. For your Flamengo vs Bahia prediction, stick with the safer bets—home win (1.4) and under 3.5 goals (1.3)—and enjoy what promises to be a thrilling night in Rio.

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Flamengo vs Bahia

1 -250

Flamengo is expected to win with odds of -250
10/10

1x2 Tip

1 -250

Flamengo is expected to win with odds of -250
10/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -333

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
4/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes 112

Both teams are expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U4.5 -357

Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
7/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

2:1

Stats Predictions

67%
Ball Possession
33%
15
Total Shots
6
5
Shots on Goal
2
6
Shots Off Goal
3
7
Corners
2
1
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

2.3
Total Goals
1.9
1.8
Goals Scored
1
0.5
Goals Against
0.9
64%
Possession
57%
13.7
Total Shots
11.8
5.5
Shots on Goal
3.3
5.4
Shots off Goal
5.7
11.4
Fouls
11.3
6.8
Corners
4.8
0.8
Offsides
1.4
1.33
Yellow Cards
1.78
0
Red Cards
0
557
Total Passes
479

Overview Last 10 Matches

6
Wins
6
6
Over 1.5 Goals
4
5
Over 2.5 Goals
3
2
Over 3.5 Goals
2
3
Both Teams Scored
3
0
Unexpected Wins
0
1
Unexpected Loses
1

Head to Head

Flamengo
17 - 4 - 3
Bahia
Flamengo Flamengo 11-May-25
1:0
Bahia Bahia
Bahia Bahia 05-Oct-24
0:2
Flamengo Flamengo
Flamengo Flamengo 13-Sep-24
1:0
Bahia Bahia
Bahia Bahia 29-Aug-24
0:1
Flamengo Flamengo
Flamengo Flamengo 21-Jun-24
2:1
Bahia Bahia
Flamengo Flamengo 30-Sep-23
1:0
Bahia Bahia
Bahia Bahia 13-May-23
2:3
Flamengo Flamengo
Flamengo Flamengo 11-Nov-21
3:0
Bahia Bahia
Bahia Bahia 18-Jul-21
0:5
Flamengo Flamengo
Flamengo Flamengo 20-Dec-20
4:3
Bahia Bahia

Profile time Recent Matches of Flamengo

15 Jan Bangu Bangu.
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Flamengo RJ. Flamengo RJ
11 JanD Flamengo RJ Flamengo RJ.
1:1
Portuguesa. Portuguesa

Profile time Recent Matches of Bahia

11 JanWBahia Bahia.
4:2
Jequie.Jequie

Brazil - Serie A Brazil - Serie A

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Flamengo Flamengo37
75-24
78
2 Palmeiras Palmeiras37
63-32
73
3 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro36
53-26
69
4 Mirassol Mirassol37
60-36
66
5 Fluminense Fluminense37
48-39
61
6 Bahia Bahia37
50-44
60
7 Botafogo Botafogo36
52-34
59
8 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo37
43-46
51
9 RB Bragantino RB Bragantino37
44-54
48
10 Corinthians Corinthians37
41-46
46
11 Gremio Gremio37
43-50
46
12 Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama37
55-55
45
13 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG37
38-44
45
14 Santos Santos37
42-50
44
15 Ceara Ceara37
33-37
43
16 Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC37
41-54
43
17 Vitoria Vitoria37
34-52
42
18 Internacional Internacional37
41-56
41
19 Juventude Juventude37
34-68
34
20 Sport Recife Sport Recife37
28-71
17
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