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Match Prediction

Fluminense vs Gremio Prediction

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Fluminense

€111.28m

28 Jan17:30
2 : 1

Gremio

€81.35m

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Fluminense vs Gremio Prediction Serie A

Fluminense vs Gremio Prediction: Opening Day Drama and Betting Tips

Welcome to our Fluminense vs Gremio prediction, where we dive into the opening act of the 2026 Brasileiro Serie A season. As the Maracanã prepares for another night under the Rio lights on January 28, fans are eager for answers: Can the home side keep their fortress intact, or will Gremio’s summer shake-up bear fruit from the very first whistle? Let’s break down the teams, tactics, and betting odds in a way that’s as enjoyable as a last-minute winner.

Setting the Stage: Tactics, Team News, and Recent Form

The curtain rises on two sides with plenty to prove. Fluminense, under the watchful eye of Luis Zubeldía, have built a reputation for defensive grit and home dominance. The numbers don’t lie: 13 wins in their last 15 at home, clean sheets in 9 of their last 12, and an impressive 26-game unbeaten run in 30 Maracanã appearances. Their tactical blueprint? A fluid 4-2-3-1 with a focus on flank attacks, quick transitions, and a high defensive line. The Fluminense squad value stands at a healthy €111.28m, reflecting their depth and ambition.

On the other side, Gremio, now led by Luís Castro, bring a fresh managerial vision and a taste for possession football—even away from home. But the visitors have been hit hard by injuries, with key men like Martin Braithwaite, Mathías Villasanti, and Cristian Pavón all out. Despite these setbacks, Gremio’s recent form is sparkling: four wins in their last five matches, including a strong 2-0 showing against Guarany de Bagé. Their squad value is €81.35m, and they’ll likely mirror Fluminense’s 4-2-3-1, hoping that Carlos Vinícius (12 goals) can find a way through.

Head to Head: History, Rivalry, and Recent Encounters

  • Fluminense have won 3 of the last 5 head to head matches against Gremio, with 1 draw and 1 defeat.
  • Looking further back, Gremio have a slight edge at the Maracanã, with 5 wins in their last 10 visits.
  • Across 30 total meetings, Gremio lead with 16 wins, Fluminense have 7, and there have been 7 draws.
  • In their last meeting (August 2025), Fluminense edged Gremio 1-0 at home.

Betting Odds, AI Predictions, and Value Bets

Now, let’s talk numbers—because who doesn’t love a good punt? The betting odds make Fluminense clear favorites at 1.7 for a home win. A draw is priced at 4.0, while a Gremio away win sits at a tempting 5.9. Our AI at NerdyTips gives the best value to a 1X bet (Fluminense win or draw), with a trust rating of 2.0/10 and odds of 1.17. Not the most confident tip, but sometimes, playing it safe is smarter than going for a bicycle kick in your own penalty box.

Looking at total goals, the under 2.5 goals market stands out at 1.62 (trust rating: 1.7/10). Both teams have shown defensive solidity, and with injuries blunting Gremio’s attack, this could be a low-scoring affair. Our Fluminense vs Gremio prediction? A tight 1-0 home win, with a goalless first half—so don’t expect fireworks early on.

Key Takeaways for Bettors and Fans

  1. Fluminense vs Gremio prediction: 1-0 home win, under 2.5 total goals.
  2. Best bet: 1X (Fluminense win or draw), though confidence is low.
  3. Home advantage and defensive records favor Fluminense, but Gremio’s resilience shouldn’t be underestimated.
  4. Expect a tactical battle, especially in the first half, with both sides wary of opening day mistakes.

So, as the floodlights flicker on at the Maracanã, settle in for a strategic battle rather than a goal-fest. The stats, the odds, and our AI all point to a cautious start to the season—perfect for fans who love a bit of tension with their football. That’s our Fluminense vs Gremio prediction; may your bets be lucky and your nerves steady!

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AI Predictions
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Warning

Fluminense didn't play better in the last H2H match!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Fluminense vs Gremio

1X -588

Fluminense to win or draw with odds of -588
2/10

1x2 Tip

1X -588

Fluminense to win or draw
2/10

Total Goals

Under 2.5 -118

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match
1/10

Both Teams To Score

No -118

At least one team is not expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U4.5 -286

Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Half-Time Score

0:0

Correct Score

1:0

Average / Match

1.31
Expected Goals
1.73
2.7
Total Goals
3.5
1.9
Goals Scored
2.5
0.8
Goals Against
1
49%
Possession
50%
12.5
Total Shots
14.2
5.1
Shots on Goal
5.8
4.3
Shots off Goal
4.8
14
Fouls
12.7
3.7
Corners
5.2
1.3
Offsides
1.2
1.83
Yellow Cards
3.67
449
Total Passes
487

Overview Last 10 Matches

7
Wins
6
7
Over 1.5 Goals
9
6
Over 2.5 Goals
7
2
Over 3.5 Goals
6
5
Both Teams Scored
4
0
Unexpected Wins
0
1
Unexpected Loses
1

Head to Head

Fluminense
10 - 6 - 18
Gremio
Gremio Gremio 03-Dec-25
1:2
Fluminense Fluminense
Fluminense Fluminense 03-Aug-25
1:0
Gremio Gremio
Fluminense Fluminense 02-Nov-24
2:2
Gremio Gremio
Fluminense Fluminense 20-Aug-24
2:1
Gremio Gremio
Gremio Gremio 13-Aug-24
2:1
Fluminense Fluminense
Gremio Gremio 30-Jun-24
1:0
Fluminense Fluminense
Fluminense Fluminense 07-Dec-23
2:3
Gremio Gremio
Gremio Gremio 13-Aug-23
2:1
Fluminense Fluminense
Gremio Gremio 10-Nov-21
1:0
Fluminense Fluminense

Profile time Recent Matches of Fluminense

25 JanW Fluminense Fluminense.
2:1
Flamengo R. Flamengo RJ
23 JanW Nova Iguacu Nova Iguac.
2:3
Fluminense. Fluminense
17 JanL Boavista SC Boavista S.
1:0
Fluminense. Fluminense
14 JanW Fluminense Fluminense.
2:1
Madureira. Madureira
14 DecW Fluminense Fluminense.
1:0
Vasco. Vasco
11 DecL Vasco Vasco.
2:1
Fluminense. Fluminense
07 DecW Fluminense Fluminense.
2:0
Bahia. Bahia
03 DecW Gremio Gremio.
1:2
Fluminense. Fluminense
27 NovW Fluminense Fluminense.
6:0
Sao Paulo. Sao Paulo
23 NovD Palmeiras Palmeiras.
0:0
Fluminense. Fluminense

Profile time Recent Matches of Gremio

31 JanGremio Gremio.
-
Juventude.Juventude
25 JanLInternacional Internacio.
4:2
Gremio.Gremio
22 JanWGuarany B Guarany B.
0:2
Gremio.Gremio
17 JanWGremio Gremio.
5:0
Sao Luiz.Sao Luiz
15 JanLGremio Gremio.
0:1
Sao Jose.Sao Jose
11 JanWAvenida Avenida.
0:4
Gremio.Gremio
07 DecWSport Recife Sport Reci.
0:4
Gremio.Gremio
03 DecLGremio Gremio.
1:2
Fluminense.Fluminense
26 NovWGremio Gremio.
3:2
Palmeiras.Palmeiras
22 NovLBotafogo RJ Botafogo R.
3:2
Gremio.Gremio

Brazil - Serie A Brazil - Serie A

Team Matches Goals Points
1 RB Bragantino RB Bragantino0
0-0
0
2 Internacional Internacional0
0-0
0
3 Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama0
0-0
0
4 Gremio Gremio0
0-0
0
5 Botafogo Botafogo0
0-0
0
6 Santos Santos0
0-0
0
7 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo0
0-0
0
8 Coritiba Coritiba0
0-0
0
9 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro0
0-0
0
10 Vitoria Vitoria0
0-0
0
11 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG0
0-0
0
12 Fluminense Fluminense0
0-0
0
13 Flamengo Flamengo0
0-0
0
14 Palmeiras Palmeiras0
0-0
0
15 Atletico Paranaense Atletico0
0-0
0
16 Bahia Bahia0
0-0
0
17 Corinthians Corinthians0
0-0
0
18 Mirassol Mirassol0
0-0
0
19 remo remo0
0-0
0
20 Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc0
0-0
0
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