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Gremio

€103.85m

26 Apr15:00
1 : 0

Coritiba

€36.00m

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Gremio vs Coritiba Prediction Serie A

Gremio vs Coritiba prediction: tight night in Porto Alegre

The Gremio vs Coritiba prediction for Sunday, 2026-04-26 (20:00 GMT) leans toward a controlled home performance, but not a goal party. The game lands at Arena do Grêmio in Porto Alegre, and while the table pressure is real, the match profile suggests patience, territory, and small margins.

Context, form, and how this game may look

Grêmio enter Round 13 with a tricky start to the Brasileirão Série A season: 13th place, 13 points from 12 matches (3W, 4D, 5L), and a five-game winless league run. That kind of spell rarely invites risky football; it usually produces cautious build-up and a preference for staying compact after losing the ball.

Coritiba arrive as the lighter squad on paper—€36.00m vs Grêmio’s €103.85m—yet they have recently shown they can frustrate bigger teams. Their 0:0 away draw at Santos on 2026-04-22 (with long pre-match prices around 5.9) fits the pattern: organized defending, fewer chances, and a willingness to take a point and run.

Key match themes to watch

  • Territory battle: Grêmio are projected at 63% possession, which points to long spells in Coritiba’s half.
  • Chance quality over volume: 14 vs 9 total shots is an edge for Grêmio, but only 3 vs 2 shots on target hints at limited clear looks.
  • Set-piece edge: 8 total corners expected (5-3) favors the hosts, a typical path to goals when open play is locked.

Head to head notes and the “memory factor”

The most recent head to head (2023-06-25) finished 5:1 to Grêmio, with bookmakers strongly siding with the home side back then (1.4 vs 7.5). That scoreline will be remembered, but it may also mislead: current form indicators point more toward a grind than a repeat. Still, Grêmio have shown they can exceed expectations—like the 1:1 away draw at Flamengo on 2025-08-31 at huge odds of 12.0—so they do have resilience when games get tense.

Our betting odds and AI picks for smart sports betting

Let’s turn the story into numbers. The market betting odds price Grêmio as favorites: Home win 2.0, Draw 3.45, Away win 4.5. Our AI model aligns with that direction but keeps expectations modest, which matters for sports betting discipline.

  • Best tip: Under 2.5 goals at 1.69 (confidence 8.0/10). This is also the best under/over bet by our statistical analysis.
  • AI 1x2 pick: Home win (1) with trust 5.4 and price around 2.0. Solid lean, but not a “bet the house” level.

The predicted script matches those picks: expected final score 1:0, with 0:0 at half-time. Fewer cards are forecast (1 yellow for Grêmio, 2 for Coritiba), which also fits a slower tempo and fewer chaotic transitions. In plain words: Grêmio likely control the ball, Coritiba likely protect the center, and the match may be decided by one clean move or one dead-ball moment.

For readers searching Gremio vs Coritiba prediction value: consider Under 2.5 as the primary angle, and treat the home win as a secondary option if you want exposure to the favorite at these betting odds.

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Gremio vs Coritiba

U2.5 -145

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -145
8/10

1x2 Tip

1 100

Gremio is expected to win with odds of 100
5/10

Total Goals

Under 2.5 -145

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match
8/10

Both Teams To Score

No -125

At least one team is not expected to score
7/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U4.5 -238

Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
4/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

1:0

Stats Predictions

0.93
xG
0.76
63%
Ball Possession
37%
14
Total Shots
9
3
Shots on Goal
2
6
Shots Off Goal
4
5
Corners
3
1
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

0.82
Expected Goals
0.85
1.6
Total Goals
1.7
0.8
Goals Scored
1
0.8
Goals Against
0.7
59%
Possession
39%
12.6
Total Shots
10.1
3.6
Shots on Goal
3
5.6
Shots off Goal
5
11.1
Fouls
12
4.4
Corners
3.4
1.5
Offsides
1.7
2.2
Yellow Cards
2.5
470
Total Passes
315

Overview Last 10 Matches

3
Wins
4
6
Over 1.5 Goals
6
2
Over 2.5 Goals
1
0
Over 3.5 Goals
1
3
Both Teams Scored
3
0
Unexpected Wins
2
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Gremio
7 - 4 - 7
Coritiba
Coritiba Coritiba 01-Nov-23
1:2
Gremio Gremio
Coritiba Coritiba 31-Jan-21
1:1
Gremio Gremio
Coritiba Coritiba 08-Oct-11
2:0
Gremio Gremio
Coritiba Coritiba 28-Jul-12
2:1
Gremio Gremio
Coritiba Coritiba 27-Oct-13
4:0
Gremio Gremio
Coritiba Coritiba 25-Oct-14
1:1
Gremio Gremio
Coritiba Coritiba 16-May-15
2:0
Gremio Gremio
Coritiba Coritiba 08-Sep-16
4:0
Gremio Gremio
Coritiba Coritiba 15-Oct-17
0:1
Gremio Gremio

Profile time Recent Matches of Gremio

30 MayL Gremio Gremio 1 Corinthians Corinthians 3
26 MayD Gremio Gremio 2 Torque Torque 2
23 MayW Gremio Gremio 3 Santos Santos 2
21 MayW Gremio Gremio 2 Palestino Palestino 0
17 MayD Bahia Bahia 1 Gremio Gremio 1
14 MayW Confianca Confianca 0 Gremio Gremio 3
10 MayL Gremio Gremio 0 Flamengo Flamengo 1
05 MayW Deportivo R Deportivo R 0 Gremio Gremio 3
03 MayD Atletico P Atletico P 0 Gremio Gremio 0
30 AprD Palestino Palestino 0 Gremio Gremio 0

Profile time Recent Matches Of Coritiba

30 MayLFlamengo Flamengo 3 Coritiba Coritiba 0
26 MayWCoritiba Coritiba 3 Bahia Bahia 2
17 MayWSantos Santos 0 Coritiba Coritiba 3
13 MayLCoritiba Coritiba 0 Santos Santos 2
09 MayDCoritiba Coritiba 2 Internacional Internacional 2
02 MayLVitoria Vitoria 4 Coritiba Coritiba 1
26 AprLGremio Gremio 1 Coritiba Coritiba 0
22 AprDSantos Santos 0 Coritiba Coritiba 0
19 AprWCoritiba Coritiba 2 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 0
12 AprDBotafogo Botafogo 2 Coritiba Coritiba 2

Brazil - Serie A Brazil - Serie A

Team M G P
1 PalmeirasPalmeiras1729-1338
2 FlamengoFlamengo1628-1631
3 FluminenseFluminense1727-2230
4 Atletico ParanaenseAtletico1723-1827
5 RB BragantinoRB Bragantino1722-1826
6 CoritibaCoritiba1724-2126
7 Sao PauloSao Paulo1723-1925
8 BahiaBahia1623-2223
9 CruzeiroCruzeiro1723-2723
10 BotafogoBotafogo1630-2922
11 VitoriaVitoria1620-2222
12 Atletico-MGAtletico-MG1721-2321
13 InternacionalInternacional1720-1921
14 GremioGremio1719-2021
15 CorinthiansCorinthians1715-1821
16 Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama1722-2820
17 SantosSantos1723-2818
18 MirassolMirassol1618-2316
19 RemoRemo1720-2915
20 Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc1617-329
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