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Match Prediction

Gremio vs Fluminense Prediction

Finished
Brazil flag Brazil
Serie A

Gremio

€86.95m

2 Dec19:30
1 : 2

Fluminense

€94.10m

Preview

Gremio vs Fluminense Prediction Serie A

Gremio vs Fluminense Prediction: Stats, Tactics, and AI Insights

Welcome to our Gremio vs Fluminense prediction, where we break down the numbers, the tactics, and the storylines shaping this pivotal Serie A encounter at Arena do Grêmio on December 3, 2025. As both sides chase crucial points in the closing stages of the season, let’s unravel what makes this fixture more than just another date on the calendar.

Form, Standings, and Tactical Storylines

As the league campaign nears its climax, Gremio finds itself in 9th place, holding 46 points after a season of mixed fortunes—12 wins, 10 draws, and 14 defeats. Their home form is a silver lining, with 9 victories at Arena do Grêmio. Fluminense, meanwhile, sits 5th with 58 points, boasting 17 wins and a recent unbeaten run of five matches. Yet, their away record (3 wins from 18) is a reminder that life on the road has been challenging.

The last time these two met, Fluminense edged a narrow 1-0 victory. Historically, though, Gremio has had the upper hand in their head to head, winning 25 of 53 meetings. Still, recent results suggest the gap is narrowing, adding an extra layer of intrigue to this Gremio vs Fluminense prediction.

Team News and Tactical Approaches

  • Gremio’s Situation: Injuries have been a headache, with key midfielders Alex Santana and Marcos Rocha sidelined by muscle problems. Noriega is out for the season, and Gustavo Martins returns from suspension. Coach Mano Menezes, whose future is uncertain, is expected to favor a cautious, defense-first approach, especially with top scorer Martin Braithwaite (15 goals) leading the line.
  • Fluminense’s Outlook: Fluminense welcomes back Lucho Acosta, Thiago Silva, and Renê, strengthening a squad that recently thrashed São Paulo 6-0. However, the absence of Germán Cano and Manoel due to injury could test their depth. Coach Renato Gaúcho, newly reappointed, has injected belief and tactical flexibility, often favoring controlled possession and quick transitions.

Key Numbers and Betting Odds

  • Betting Odds: Home win (2.95), Draw (3.1), Away win (2.8)—the bookmakers see this as a tight contest, with Fluminense slight favorites away from home.
  • Squad Value: Gremio (€86.95m) vs Fluminense (€94.10m)—a sign of the quality on both sides.
  • Recent Surprises: Gremio’s 1-1 draw at Flamengo (odds 12.0) and Fluminense’s 0-0 away at Palmeiras (odds 7.0) show both teams are capable of defying expectations.

AI Predictions: Where the Smart Money Goes

Now, let’s turn to our AI-powered Gremio vs Fluminense prediction. The data points to a closely fought encounter, with Fluminense slightly favored to avoid defeat. Here’s how the numbers stack up:

  1. 1X2 Market: Our AI recommends X2 (draw or Fluminense win) at odds of 1.44, though with a modest confidence rating of 2.0. It’s a cautious call, reflecting Fluminense’s recent form but also their shaky away record.
  2. Total Goals: Under 3.5 goals is the standout bet, with a trust rating of 4.0/10 and odds of 1.25. The expected scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Fluminense, with a 0-1 lead at halftime. Both teams are projected to share possession almost equally (49% vs 51%), but Gremio is expected to take more shots (17 vs 11), though Fluminense’s efficiency could be decisive.
  3. Discipline and Corners: Expect a balanced contest with 2 yellow cards apiece and 4 corners each—a sign of two teams not just fighting for points, but also for control.

What to Watch For

  • Can Gremio’s home form and Braithwaite’s goals tip the balance, or will Fluminense’s returning stars and tactical discipline see them through?
  • Will under 3.5 goals prove the safest bet, or could late drama upset the script?

Final Thoughts: Gremio vs Fluminense Prediction

This is a fixture where history, recent form, and tactical nuance collide. While Gremio will look to avenge their recent defeat and capitalize on home advantage, Fluminense’s stronger league position and recent unbeaten streak cannot be ignored. Our Gremio vs Fluminense prediction leans towards a narrow away win or a draw, with under 3.5 total goals the most reliable betting angle. For punters, the value may lie in backing Fluminense to avoid defeat and keeping an eye on the goal line markets.

Whatever the outcome, expect a tense, tactical battle—one that could have big implications for both teams as the season draws to a close.

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Gremio vs Fluminense

U3.5 -400

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -400
4/10

1x2 Tip

X2 -227

Fluminense to win or draw
2/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -400

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
4/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes -111

Both teams are expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

X2&U4.5 -161

Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

1:2

Stats Predictions

1.8
xG
1.21
49%
Ball Possession
51%
17
Total Shots
11
6
Shots on Goal
4
6
Shots Off Goal
4
4
Corners
4
2
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

1.63
Expected Goals
1.25
3
Total Goals
1.7
1.4
Goals Scored
1.2
1.6
Goals Against
0.5
45%
Possession
53%
15.6
Total Shots
12.7
5.4
Shots on Goal
4.5
6
Shots off Goal
4.8
11.8
Fouls
15.4
4.5
Corners
4.8
1
Offsides
1.1
2.7
Yellow Cards
2.2
381
Total Passes
442

Overview Last 10 Matches

4
Wins
6
8
Over 1.5 Goals
4
5
Over 2.5 Goals
2
5
Over 3.5 Goals
1
4
Both Teams Scored
1
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Gremio
18 - 6 - 9
Fluminense
Fluminense Fluminense 03-Aug-25
1:0
Gremio Gremio
Fluminense Fluminense 02-Nov-24
2:2
Gremio Gremio
Fluminense Fluminense 20-Aug-24
2:1
Gremio Gremio
Gremio Gremio 13-Aug-24
2:1
Fluminense Fluminense
Gremio Gremio 30-Jun-24
1:0
Fluminense Fluminense
Fluminense Fluminense 07-Dec-23
2:3
Gremio Gremio
Gremio Gremio 13-Aug-23
2:1
Fluminense Fluminense
Gremio Gremio 10-Nov-21
1:0
Fluminense Fluminense
Fluminense Fluminense 18-Jul-21
0:1
Gremio Gremio
Fluminense Fluminense 08-Nov-20
0:1
Gremio Gremio

Profile time Recent Matches of Gremio

15 Jan Gremio Gremio.
-
Sao Jose. Sao Jose
11 JanW Avenida Avenida.
0:4
Gremio. Gremio
07 DecW Sport Recife Sport Recife.
0:4
Gremio. Gremio
03 DecL Gremio Gremio.
1:2
Fluminense. Fluminense
26 NovW Gremio Gremio.
3:2
Palmeiras. Palmeiras
22 NovL Botafogo RJ Botafogo RJ.
3:2
Gremio. Gremio
20 NovW Gremio Gremio.
2:0
Vasco. Vasco
09 NovD Fortaleza Fortaleza.
2:2
Gremio. Gremio
05 NovL Gremio Gremio.
0:1
Cruzeiro. Cruzeiro
02 NovL Corinthians Corinthians.
2:0
Gremio. Gremio

Profile time Recent Matches of Fluminense

14 JanFluminense Fluminense.
-
Madureira.Madureira
14 DecWFluminense Fluminense.
1:0
Vasco.Vasco
11 DecLVasco Vasco.
2:1
Fluminense.Fluminense
07 DecWFluminense Fluminense.
2:0
Bahia.Bahia
03 DecWGremio Gremio.
1:2
Fluminense.Fluminense
27 NovWFluminense Fluminense.
6:0
Sao Paulo.Sao Paulo
23 NovDPalmeiras Palmeiras.
0:0
Fluminense.Fluminense
20 NovWFluminense Fluminense.
2:1
Flamengo RJ.Flamengo RJ
09 NovDCruzeiro Cruzeiro.
0:0
Fluminense.Fluminense
06 NovWFluminense Fluminense.
1:0
Mirassol.Mirassol

Brazil - Serie A Brazil - Serie A

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Flamengo Flamengo37
75-24
78
2 Palmeiras Palmeiras37
63-32
73
3 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro36
53-26
69
4 Mirassol Mirassol37
60-36
66
5 Fluminense Fluminense37
48-39
61
6 Bahia Bahia37
50-44
60
7 Botafogo Botafogo36
52-34
59
8 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo37
43-46
51
9 RB Bragantino RB Bragantino37
44-54
48
10 Corinthians Corinthians37
41-46
46
11 Gremio Gremio37
43-50
46
12 Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama37
55-55
45
13 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG37
38-44
45
14 Santos Santos37
42-50
44
15 Ceara Ceara37
33-37
43
16 Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC37
41-54
43
17 Vitoria Vitoria37
34-52
42
18 Internacional Internacional37
41-56
41
19 Juventude Juventude37
34-68
34
20 Sport Recife Sport Recife37
28-71
17
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