Guimaraes vs Moreirense Prediction

Guimaraes vs Moreirense Prediction: Derby Day Odds, Stats & AI Tips

The Guimaraes vs Moreirense prediction is on everyone’s mind as these two local rivals prepare to lock horns at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques on January 30, 2026, at 20:45 GMT. With both sides eager for a statement win in the Primeira Liga, this derby carries extra weight—not just for the fans, but for sports betting enthusiasts looking for an edge in the betting odds. Let’s dive into the teams, tactics, and the latest AI-driven predictions for this intriguing head to head.

Tactics, Team News & Recent Form: Setting the Stage

Guimaraes (often simply called Vitória) and Moreirense both arrive with plenty to prove. The home side, managed by Luis Pinto, is expected to stick with a 4-2-3-1 setup, focusing on midfield control and dynamic wide play. However, Vitória Guimaraes will be without Gustavo Silva and Óscar Rivas, both sidelined by muscle injuries. Likely starters include Juan Castillo, Tony Strata, Miguel Nóbrega, Rodrigo Abascal, João Mendes, Goncalo Nogueira, Matija Mitrovic, Oumar Camara, Samu, Noah Saviolo, and Alioune Ndoye.

Moreirense, under Vasco Botelho da Costa, prefers a 4-3-3 formation—expecting a strong midfield trio and a front line ready to pounce on any defensive lapses. Their only notable absentee is Vasco Sousa (broken fibula), with a probable lineup featuring André Ferreira, Dinis Pinto, Gilberto Batista, Maracás, Álvaro Martínez, Rodrigo Alonso, Mateja Stjepanovic, Alanzinho, D. Martins Travassos, Luis Semedo, and Kiko Bondoso.

• Guimaraes recent form: WLDWLL (2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses in last six)
• Moreirense recent form: LDWWLW (3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in last six)

In terms of market value, things are tight: Guimaraes at €27.60m, Moreirense slightly ahead at €28.20m. That’s reflected in the betting odds as well, with a home win priced at 2.16, a draw at 3.35, and an away win at 3.85. Both sides have shown the ability to surprise: Guimaraes recently toppled SC Braga 2.16 as underdogs (odds 5.6), while Moreirense stunned Sporting CP 2.16 with long odds of 8.7.

Head to Head and Derby Dynamics

This is always a passionate affair. Over 26 previous meetings, Guimaraes has come out on top 15 times, Moreirense 5, with 6 draws. The last time these two met at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques (November 2024), Guimaraes took the points with a 1-0 win. However, Moreirense got their revenge in August 2025 with a 2-0 victory. The derby atmosphere, especially with Guimaraes at home, often means a tight contest with little between the teams.

• Possession forecast: Guimaraes 54%, Moreirense 46%
• Shots: Guimaraes 14 (3 on target), Moreirense 8 (3 on target)
• Corners: 4 each
• Yellow cards: Guimaraes 1, Moreirense 2

AI-Driven Guimaraes vs Moreirense Prediction & Best Bets

Our AI model at NerdyTips has crunched the numbers for this Guimaraes vs Moreirense prediction, and the verdict is clear: don’t expect fireworks. The most trusted outcome is under 3.5 goals, rated at 4.7/10 with odds of 1.22—an option that’s backed by both recent form and the head to head history. In fact, the best under/over bet is also under 3.5 goals, with a trust rating of 4.8.

For those looking at the 1x2 market, the AI sees value in the draw (X) at 3.35, though with a lower trust score of 2.0. The predicted final score? A goalless 0:0, with both teams expected to keep things tight, especially in the first half (also predicted 0:0).

1. Best bet: Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.22, trust 4.8/10)
2. Value bet: Draw (odds 3.35, trust 2.0/10)
3. Correct score prediction: 0:0

Guimaraes is expected to control the ball and create more chances, but with both teams disciplined and defenses organized, goals could be at a premium. Sports betting fans should note the derby’s history of low-scoring, hard-fought encounters—making this a prime candidate for under markets.

Final Thoughts: Betting Odds & Sports Betting Takeaways

To sum up this Guimaraes vs Moreirense prediction: expect a tense, tactical battle with few clear-cut chances. The betting odds suggest a slight edge for the home side, but the draw stands out as a value play. Under 3.5 goals is the safest pick, supported by both AI analysis and recent trends. With both teams nearly matched in market value and form, this local derby should deliver drama—even if it doesn’t deliver a goal fest. Happy betting, and may your picks be as sharp as your insights!