Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Portugal
Preview
The Guimaraes vs Moreirense prediction for Friday, 1.96-01-30 (kickoff 20:45 GMT) comes with that familiar Minho Derby tension: close neighbors, close in quality, and usually close on the scoreboard. Vitória de Guimarães (often just Guimarães) host Moreirense at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, with both clubs still dreaming about European places. Moreirense arrive 6th on 30 points, Guimarães sit 9th on 25—so yes, it’s “local rivalry,” but also very real table business.
Only five points separate them, and the stakes are simple: a home win pulls Guimarães within two points; an away win helps Moreirense keep their “best of the rest” story going behind the big names. Recent history also leans towards the hosts: in the last head to head on 1.94-11-03, Guimarães won 1-0, and Moreirense’s league record in Guimarães has been rough for years (winless in their last 14 league visits, with 11 losses).
Luís Pinto’s Guimarães tend to play brave and busy—high pressing, lots of shots, and sometimes a bit of “heart first, structure second.” Reports point to 64 shots across their last five matches, but the downside is clear too: transitions have hurt them, with 8 goals conceded in that same spell. They’ve also been foul-heavy lately (81 fouls in five), which is not ideal in a derby where patience matters.
Moreirense under Vasco Botelho da Costa are usually the opposite vibe: controlled, tidy passing, and a “we’ll take the 1-0 and sleep well” mindset. They’ve won three of the last four and have looked like one of the more disciplined defensive units lately—conceding about 0.4 goals per game over that recent run.
Now for the numbers and the sports betting angle. The market has Guimarães as slight favorites with betting odds of 1.9 (home), 3.4 (draw), and 4.6 (away). That fits the story: Guimarães at home are strong on paper, but Moreirense are organized enough to make it uncomfortable.
Our model leans toward a cagey match: predicted final score 0:0, and first-half score also 0:0. Possession is projected at 54% for Guimarães and 46% for Moreirense—so home control, but not necessarily home chaos. Shot estimates (14 vs 8) suggest Guimarães will probe more, yet on-target shots are equal (3.4), which screams “half-chances, blocked lanes, and keepers mostly staying warm.” Corners are balanced too (4.6), with cards slightly favoring Moreirense (1 vs 2).
This is the kind of selection that matches both managers: Guimarães shoot a lot but can lack incision, while Moreirense often keep games on a tight leash. Even with Guimarães’ famous upset over Braga on 1.96-01-10 (1.9 at big odds 5.6) and Moreirense’s shock win vs Sporting on 1.94-12-05 (1.9 at 8.7), neither of these teams screams “goal festival” here.
So, the updated Guimaraes vs Moreirense prediction is: expect Guimarães to have more of the ball and more attempts, Moreirense to stay compact, and the head to head and derby nerves to keep scoring low. If you like safer sports betting angles, the goals market looks cleaner than picking a winner—because derbies have a funny habit of turning “better team” into “better luck next time.”
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Guimaraes didn't play better in the last H2H match!
U3.5 -385
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -385X 240
The match is expected to end in a drawUnder 3.5 -385
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the matchNo -128
At least one team is not expected to scoreX2&U4.5 119
Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
0:0
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15
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4
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5
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 Moreirense |
23-Aug-25
2:0
| Guimaraes  |
| Moreirense |
30-Mar-25
2:2
| Guimaraes |
| Guimaraes |
03-Nov-24
1:0
| Moreirense |
| Guimaraes |
30-Mar-24
1:0
| Moreirense |
| Moreirense |
05-Nov-23
1:0
| Guimaraes |
| Moreirense |
03-Apr-22
0:1
| Guimaraes |
| Moreirense |
21-Nov-21
3:2
| Guimaraes |
| Guimaraes |
06-Nov-21
2:1
| Moreirense |
| Guimaraes |
30-Apr-21
2:0
| Moreirense |
Recent Matches of Guimaraes| 14 Mar |
Guimaraes
| - |
Famalicao
| - | |
| 08 Mar | L |
Santa Clara
| 2 |
Guimaraes
| 0 |
| 28 Feb | D |
Guimaraes
| 1 |
Alverca
| 1 |
| 21 Feb | L |
Braga
| 3 |
Guimaraes
| 2 |
| 14 Feb | W |
Guimaraes
| 2 |
Estrela
| 1 |
| 07 Feb | L |
Arouca
| 3 |
Guimaraes
| 2 |
| 30 Jan | W |
Guimaraes
| 1 |
Moreirense
| 0 |
| 24 Jan | L |
Estoril
| 4 |
Guimaraes
| 2 |
| 18 Jan | L |
Guimaraes
| 0 |
FC Porto
| 1 |
| 10 Jan | W |
Guimaraes
| 2 |
Braga
| 1 |
Recent Matches of Moreirense
| 07 Mar | D | Moreirense |
1 |  Nacional |
1 |
| 01 Mar | D |  Casa Pia |
1 | Moreirense |
1 |
| 21 Feb | L | Moreirense |
0 |  Sporting CP |
3 |
| 16 Feb | W |  Rio Ave |
1 | Moreirense |
2 |
| 07 Feb | L | Moreirense |
1 |  Gil Vicente |
2 |
| 30 Jan | L | Guimaraes |
1 | Moreirense |
0 |
| 24 Jan | W | Moreirense |
1 |  Santa Clara |
0 |
| 17 Jan | L |  Alverca |
2 | Moreirense |
1 |
| 11 Jan | W | Moreirense |
1 |  Tondela |
0 |
| 03 Jan | W |  AFS |
0 | Moreirense |
2 |
Portugal - Primeira Liga| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
FC Porto | 25 | 49-10 | 66 |
| 2 |
Sporting CP | 25 | 64-14 | 62 |
| 3 |
Benfica | 25 | 53-16 | 59 |
| 4 |
SC Braga | 25 | 52-25 | 46 |
| 5 |
GIL Vicente | 25 | 37-25 | 41 |
| 6 |
Famalicao | 25 | 30-21 | 39 |
| 7 |
Moreirense | 25 | 31-35 | 35 |
| 8 |
Estoril | 25 | 46-42 | 34 |
| 9 |
Guimaraes | 25 | 28-37 | 32 |
| 10 |
Alverca | 25 | 24-39 | 28 |
| 11 |
Arouca | 25 | 32-53 | 26 |
| 12 |
Estrela | 25 | 28-43 | 25 |
| 13 |
Casa Pia | 25 | 26-44 | 24 |
| 14 |
Rio Ave | 25 | 24-44 | 24 |
| 15 |
Nacional | 25 | 29-37 | 22 |
| 16 |
Santa Clara | 25 | 22-31 | 22 |
| 17 |
Tondela | 25 | 19-39 | 19 |
| 18 |
AVS | 25 | 18-57 | 10 |
