Hajduk Split vs Rijeka Prediction

Poljud pressure: Hajduk Split vs Rijeka prediction guide

Our Hajduk Split vs Rijeka prediction starts with one simple idea: when the Adriatic Derby arrives at Poljud, form and feelings travel together. On Sunday, 2026-02-22 (16:45 GMT), Round 23 brings Hajduk (2nd, 43 pts) and Rijeka (3rd, 32 pts) into a match that can reshape the chase behind Dinamo Zagreb. Expect a loud, tight afternoon where every loose touch gets a reaction.

Setting the scene at Poljud

Poljud (about 34,000 seats) should be near full, and Hajduk’s staff have openly leaned into the “Poljud factor”. There is also a personal edge: Rijeka handed Hajduk a painful 5-0 earlier in the season, and this is the kind of fixture where revenge becomes a tactical plan, not just a fan slogan.

Team news that shapes the tactics

Both coaches have selection headaches that influence how this derby may look.

• Hajduk goalkeeper issue: Ivica Ivušić is out with a pubic bone injury, so Silić or Lučić should step in. That can mean a slightly safer build-up and fewer risky passes under pressure.
• Hajduk absences: Bruno Durdov and Iker Almena are unavailable, while Rokas Pukštas has an ankle issue but could still be important if cleared.
• Rijeka defensive depth tested: Mile Škorić (knee) and Noel Bodetić (broken wrist) are out, and Samuele Vignato is a doubt after a knock.
• European hangover risk: Rijeka’s schedule is heavy due to the Conference League playoff around this period, and rotation could affect their rhythm in Split.

How the match may be played

Hajduk under Gonzalo García often line up 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3, with high pressing and Marko Livaja acting as the reference point to hold the ball and bring runners into play. Michele Šego’s 10 league goals give Hajduk a direct finishing option when the game gets messy.

Rijeka, led by Víctor Sánchez, have used a flexible back three to cover injuries and to spring forward quickly. Toni Fruk is the creative engine (and a major share of their goal involvement), so Hajduk’s midfield battle is likely to include a clear message: “Fruk, not today.” If Rijeka can release Fruk early, then Ante Matej Jurić and Tiago Dantas become more dangerous between the lines.

Recent context and head to head notes

The head to head script says “expect drama”: the most recent meeting on 2025-08-31 ended 2-2. Hajduk also showed steel on 2025-12-06 with a surprising 1-1 away draw at Dinamo Zagreb (priced around 5.0 for a Hajduk win). Rijeka had their own “how did they do that?” moment on 2025-12.18, holding Shakhtar Donetsk to 0-0 away (odds around 6.0), which hints at their ability to lock games down when needed.

NerdyTips picks, betting odds, and what the numbers suggest

The market prices this as a home-leaning derby: betting odds are Home 2.1, Draw 3.4, Away 3.9. Squad value also tilts slightly to Hajduk (€38.50m vs €31.52m), and the match model expects Hajduk to control more of the ball (58% to 42%).

• Recommended bet (AI): 1X (Hajduk win or draw) at 1.3, trust level 8.2.10
• 1X2 pick: 1 (Hajduk to win) at 2.1, trust level 6.7/10
• Total goals: Under 3.5 at 1.26, confidence 6.6/10

Those tips match the expected match stats: Hajduk 15 shots to Rijeka’s 8, on target 5 to 2, and corners 6 to 3 (9 total). That profile usually points to Hajduk territory and pressure, but not necessarily a goal flood—more “knock on the door” than “kick it down.” Even the card call (2 yellows each) hints at a controlled derby rather than a full-time argument festival.

Correct score lean

Our projected outcome fits the low-scoring angle: predicted final score 1-0, with a 0-0 first half. In other words, patience may be the best tactic for fans and bettors alike.

To sum it up, this Hajduk Split vs Rijeka prediction leans home because of Poljud, control metrics, and Rijeka’s stretched back line—but respects Rijeka’s ability to spoil parties. If you want one sentence: back Hajduk not to lose (1X), and keep an eye on the under for total goals.