Hajduk Split vs Slaven Belupo Prediction

Poljud nerves and our prediction for Hajduk’s response

The Hajduk Split vs Slaven Belupo prediction for Saturday, February 7, 2026 (kick-off 16:15 GMT) comes with a strange mix of tradition and tension. Poljud should be loud as always, but the mood is not the usual party: Hajduk arrive under pressure after two straight defeats and a growing feeling that a promising season is starting to slip. Still, this is exactly the kind of home match where Hajduk usually try to “reset the system” — preferably before the fans reset it for them.

Match context: form, pressure, and what each coach wants

Hajduk sit second with 37 points, yet they are now seven points behind Dinamo Zagreb. That gap feels bigger when you remember how confident the early-season football looked. Back-to-back losses to Gorica (0–1) and Istra 1.621 (1–2) have turned the atmosphere edgy, especially after the earlier European exit. Gonzalo Garcia has been clear that his plan stays the same: possession, control, and territory. He has also admitted Hajduk must be sharper in both motivation and defensive order, because negative runs can become a “vortex” if you let them.

Slaven Belupo, sixth on 27 points, have been inconsistent (L–D–D–L–W), and they recently fell 0–2 to Varaždin. But they can be awkward opponents for bigger sides, especially when they are allowed to sit compact and counter. Mario Gregurina is expected to keep Slaven in a low, organized block, trying to take advantage of Hajduk’s current lack of confidence and any loose defending in transition.

Team news that could shape the tactics

Hajduk’s biggest issue is simple: goals might be harder to find. Michele Šego, the league’s top scorer with 10, is a major doubt, while Marko Livaja is still in rehab and unlikely to start. Add injuries to Iker Almena and Ivica Ivušić, and the home side’s usual rhythm becomes harder to maintain. On top of that, young defender Branimir Mlačić has completed a move to Udinese, a financial boost that does not help Saturday’s team sheet.

Slaven also travel with problems: they are missing Ivan Božić, Ljuban Crepulja, Mihail Caimacov, and Zvonimir Katalinić. Even so, they still have two clear threats — experienced striker Ilija Nestorovski and the creative Adriano Jagušić — which is enough to keep Hajduk’s back line honest.

• Head to head: Hajduk are unbeaten in 17 straight vs Slaven (13W, 4D), including a 3–0 win on 2025-08-17.
• Psychology: Hajduk’s fans tend to rally at Poljud, but patience is thinner when results dip.

Our AI angles: betting odds, stats, and where value sits

The market leans clearly to the hosts with betting odds of 1.62 for a home win, 3.9 for the draw, and 6.0 for an away win. That pricing matches the expected game script: Hajduk with around 63% possession, pushing Slaven back, and producing more attempts (projected 18 shots to 12). The corner count also points to territory (6–2 to Hajduk), while on-target efforts are forecast at 6–3.

Still, Hajduk’s injury list explains why confidence is measured rather than absolute. Our Hajduk Split vs Slaven Belupo prediction for the 1X2 market is 1 (home win) at 1.622, with a trust level of 5.3/10 — a “likely” call, not a victory parade.

Total goals picks and expected match flow

The best tip is over 1.5 total goals at 1.28, trust 5.3/10 (our model repeats this for the under/over market too, with trust 5.4). The logic is that even if Hajduk start carefully — the expected half-time score is 0:0 — the second half should open up as the home side increases risk, and Slaven’s counters become more frequent.

Our AI’s correct score leans to a narrow home win, 2–1. That fits the numbers: Hajduk should create the bigger volume, but Slaven have enough experience up front to steal a goal if the home defense switches off for even a minute. In short, expect a tense first hour, then a match that finally remembers it’s allowed to score.