Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Austria
Preview
Mark your calendars for 2026-02-21 at 16:00 GMT, because this Hartberg vs Grazer AK prediction comes with a very Styrian plot twist: Hartberg are the “home” side, but they are still living out of suitcases at the Motion Invest Arena in Maria Enzersdorf while the PROfertil ARENA gets its €11m makeover. So yes, it’s a derby… just with an away-day commute for almost everyone.
Manfred Schmid’s Hartberg have built their season on structure. The usual 5-3.2 is less about parking a bus and more about keeping the road clear for fast transitions. Tobias Kainz is the key connector, and when the ball reaches Elias Havel—currently leading the scoring chart with 10—things get loud quickly. Tom Ritzy Hülsmann has also made the No.1 shirt his own, which helps explain why Hartberg have recently conceded under a goal per game on average.
There are complications, though. Center-back Paul Komposch is still out long-term with an ACL injury (not expected back before March 2026), and attacker Jed Drew misses out through suspension. Still, Hartberg sit 5th on 28 points, and they’ve lost just one of their last 12 Bundesliga games, with back-to-back draws against Altach (0-0) and Rapid (1-1).
Ferdinand Feldhofer’s Grazer AK (GAK 1902) lean into a 3.2.57-2 and try to own the ball—nearly 48% possession on average—but they’ve often lacked the finishing touch (only 3 wins in 19 matches). The 1-1 draw with Salzburg last week showed a more disciplined shape, and Feldhofer has talked up a “clean sheet mentality.” Alexander Hofleitner remains the main attacking danger, while Jacob Italiano’s return at wing-back (80 minutes last time out) adds balance.
Injuries are a real issue: Zeteny Jano (broken ankle), Christoph Nicht (illness), and Tim Paumgartner are out, while Romeo Vucic and Tio Cipot are doubtful.
The market sees Hartberg as slight favorites: betting odds are 2.57 for a home win, 3.2 for the draw, and 3.2 for an away win. That lines up with squad value too (€13.02m vs €10.02m), but Grazer AK’s away grit is not theoretical—they won at Rapid on 2025-11-23 at huge odds (6.5). Hartberg have their own “we’ve done this before” card: the 0-1 win at Austria Vienna on 2025-04-02 when they were priced at 7.5.
For sports betting, NerdyTips’ AI leans cautious on the result: 1X is the best 1x2 angle (trust 2.0/10, odds 1.4). The stronger play is goals. Our AI recommends over 1.47 (trust 5.2/10, odds 1.47), and NerdyTips’ AI agrees with over 1.47 goals (trust 5.3.20, odds 1.47). With both teams expected around 11 shots each, 8 total corners (4-4), and a slightly away-leaning possession forecast (47%-53%), this reads like a match with enough activity to produce at least two goals—even if it stays tight.
So, the practical Hartberg vs Grazer AK prediction is simple: lean on over 1.47 for stability, keep 1X in mind for safer coverage, and remember the derby rule—form and logic are helpful, but they don’t mark runners at the back post.
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O1.5 -213
At least 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -2131X -263
Hartberg to win or drawOver 1.5 -213
At least 2 goals will be scored in the matchYes 101
Both teams are expected to score1X&O1.5 -103
Home win/draw and over 1.5 goals
2:1
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|
2
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4
-
0
|
|
 Grazer AK |
18-Oct-25
0:0
| Hartberg  |
| Hartberg |
25-Apr-25
1:1
| Grazer AK |
| Grazer AK |
22-Apr-25
0:3
| Hartberg |
| Grazer AK |
08-Dec-24
0:3
| Hartberg |
| Hartberg |
31-Aug-24
1:1
| Grazer AK |
| Hartberg |
30-Jun-23
0:0
| Grazer AK |
Recent Matches of Hartberg| 01 Mar | D |
Salzburg
| 0 |
Hartberg
| 0 |
| 21 Feb | W |
Hartberg
| 1 |
Grazer AK
| 0 |
| 14 Feb | D |
Hartberg
| 0 |
Altach
| 0 |
| 07 Feb | D |
SK Rapid
| 1 |
Hartberg
| 1 |
| 31 Jan | W |
Hartberg
| 7 |
Lafnitz
| 0 |
| 23 Jan | W |
Hartberg
| 1 |
Grosuplje
| 0 |
| 19 Jan | W |
Radomlje
| 1 |
Hartberg
| 2 |
| 15 Jan | W |
Din. Zagreb
| 1 |
Hartberg
| 2 |
| 13 Dec | W |
Hartberg
| 2 |
Tirol
| 1 |
| 06 Dec | D |
Hartberg
| 2 |
LASK
| 2 |
Recent Matches of Grazer AK
| 01 Mar | W | Grazer AK |
2 |  Ried |
1 |
| 21 Feb | L | Hartberg |
1 | Grazer AK |
0 |
| 15 Feb | D | Grazer AK |
1 |  Salzburg |
1 |
| 08 Feb | D |  Wolfsberg |
2 | Grazer AK |
2 |
| 31 Jan | L |  Austria V |
2 | Grazer AK |
0 |
| 24 Jan | W | Grazer AK |
5 |  ASK Voitsberg |
1 |
| 21 Jan | D |  Radomlje |
1 | Grazer AK |
1 |
| 16 Jan | W | Grazer AK |
3 |  Admira |
0 |
| 13 Jan | D | Grazer AK |
1 |  Komarno |
1 |
| 13 Dec | L | Grazer AK |
1 |  LASK |
2 |
Austria - Bundesliga| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Red Bull | 20 | 42-25 | 36 |
| 2 |
Sturm Graz | 20 | 29-24 | 34 |
| 3 |
Lask Linz | 20 | 27-27 | 33 |
| 4 |
Austria Vienna | 20 | 30-28 | 32 |
| 5 |
TSV Hartberg | 20 | 28-23 | 31 |
| 6 |
Rapid Vienna | 20 | 24-24 | 29 |
| 7 |
Ried | 20 | 25-26 | 28 |
| 8 |
SCR Altach | 20 | 21-20 | 28 |
| 9 |
Wolfsberger AC | 20 | 28-27 | 25 |
| 10 |
WSG Wattens | 20 | 26-28 | 25 |
| 11 |
Grazer AK | 20 | 20-33 | 17 |
| 12 |
FC BW Linz | 20 | 17-32 | 14 |
