Independiente Medellin welcomes Deportivo Cali to Estadio Atanasio Girardot on March 16, 2025, at 23:20 UTC, and the odds suggest a home win is the most likely outcome. Bookmakers have Medellin at 1.57 to take all three points, while a draw sits at 4.10, and an away win looks like a long shot at 6.50.

Looking at the numbers, Medellin holds a clear advantage. They boast a squad valued at €18.20m, nearly double that of Deportivo Cali (€9.75m). They’re also expected to dominate possession (62%) and create more chances, with an estimated 16 shots compared to Cali’s 8. However, despite this control, our AI predicts a low-scoring affair, with under 3.5 goals being the best bet at 1.25 odds and a confidence rating of 10/10.

Recent history backs this up. When these two sides last met on February 6, 2024, Medellin edged out a 1-0 victory. In fact, our AI sees a repeat of that scoreline, predicting another 1-0 win for the hosts. Expect a cagey first half, with a likely 0-0 scoreline at the break, before Medellin finds a way through in the second half.

League-wide trends also support a tight contest. Only 16.7% of Primera A matches see more than 3.5 goals, and both teams score in just 41.4% of games. Medellin’s defense should hold firm, while Cali, despite their recent 1-0 upset win over America de Cali, may struggle to break through.

For bettors, the 1x2 market leans towards a Medellin win (1.57 odds, confidence 5.6/10), but the under 3.5 goals bet is the standout pick. With a 10/10 confidence rating, it’s as close to a sure thing as you’ll find. Expect a controlled, disciplined performance from the home side, with just enough firepower to secure the points.